2021 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

Wouldn't call that particularly developed.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: Wouldn't call that particularly developed.

Well it's the Euro showing a well defined vort so that's likely a TS considering the models biases.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS pretty persistent here. NHC needs to highlight 2 yellow systems.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/1418183722713616384

[cycloneye]

Invest 98E is up

[Kingarabian]

Invest 98E is up

Maybe they'll push out 99E soon, which will be an area east of 98E, since that's what the EPS is favoring.

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/1418183722713616384?s=21

The Atlantic will take over sooner or later but in the meanwhile, the GEFS seems to be winning here since the EPS is lighting up in the long range.

[Kingarabian]

Looking pretty fiery out there in the EPAC:

[tolakram]

FYI, GOES 17 soonish

Update #9: Magnetometer has been restored and data is flowing. Other instruments status is TBD

Update #8: The Safe Hold Mode has been exited. Safe Hold recovery continues with instruments coming online soon. Total recovery TBD.

Update #7: GOES-17 recovery is in progress. The anomaly has been addressed. Engineers are working towards a full recovery. Instrument data is expected to be restored over night.

Update #6: G17 recovery operations is still ongoing.

Update #5: G17 recovery operations still ongoing.

Update #4: G17 recovery operations still ongoing.

Update #3: Engineers have started G17 recovery operations.

Update #2: Engineers are onsite at NSOF and aggressively troubleshooting the problem. All GOES-17 ABI, MAG, SEISS, SUVI AND EXIS/EUV products are out due to this ongoing Anomaly.

Update #1: Engineers are onsite at NSOF to diagnose the GOES-17 Anomaly.

Topic: GOES-17 ABI L1b All Bands, All Products and derived products delivered to AWIPS, GRB, PDA

Date/Time Issued: July23, 2021 0527Z

Product or Data Impacted: GOES-17 ABI L1b All Bands, All Products and derived products All Scenes delivered to AWIPS, GRB, PDA.

Date/Time of Initial Impact: July 22, 2021 0537Z

Date/Time of Expected End: TBD

Length of the Outage/Event: TBD

[Kingarabian]

In about 5 days there should be another disturbance near 130W. The EPS likes that one much more than 98E.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF only really liking a storm by day 7-8 which GFS has backed off on. Considering the -VP pattern in the short term, I’d expect more.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS seems pretty realistic given it's modeled VP pattern.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS/EPS still disagreeing some on the position of the -VP. Former thinks it’s the 80s while later seems something you’d expect out of the late 10s.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure could form a few hundred miles south or
southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a few days. Some gradual
development is possible thereafter through the middle of next week
while the system moves generally parallel to, but offshore of, the
coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF showing 3 systems now.

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT:

An area of low pressure could form in several days a few hundred
miles south or southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter,
some gradual development is possible through late this week while
the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
remaining a couple of hundred miles offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[aspen]

The time frame for development of the 0/20 AOI is being pushed back in the GFS. It has remained around 120-132 hours out for the last two days, and instead of showing a potential major, the system only reaches the 980s at most. This is probably going to be another Guillermo situation because they both had very similar model runs and evolutions up to this point: originally forecast to quickly develop close to the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua/Honduras/El Salvador/Guatemala and become a 960s-950s major, only for development to be postponed until further NW and their predicted intensities dropped significantly.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop by midweek a few
hundred miles south or southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Thereafter, some gradual development is possible through late this
week while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph, remaining a couple of hundred miles offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Kingarabian]

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop by midweek a few
hundred miles south or southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Thereafter, some gradual development is possible through late this
week while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph, remaining a couple of hundred miles offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

In regards to this future 0/30 system, the models are showing two robust disturbances forming off the monsoon trough. The best case scenario to see a major hurricane + some big ACE is if the western disturbance becomes the dominant feature and it follows the CMC track:


The Euro and GFS show the eastern disturbance becoming the most dominant, which in turn tracks closer to Mexico and runs into cooler water/drier atmosphere sooner.