CPAC: INVEST 90C

[cycloneye]

EP, 98, 2021072218, , BEST, 0, 109N, 1207W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 180, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 012, SPAWNINVEST, ep732021 to ep982021,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[ElectricStorm]

GFS develops this into a weak system. However if this overperforms it may be a threat to Hawaii. Personally I think we might see perhaps a minimal TS out of this, but not much more.

[Kingarabian]

Only the GFS develops this. However its in a low latitude position and far away from Mexico. The area between 120W-140W usually isn't too bad for development and we could see a decent storm out of this. Should get ripped apart once it enters the CPAC.

[cycloneye]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP982021 07/22/21 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 30 39 43 47 44 41 36 28 22 16 N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 25 30 39 43 47 44 41 36 28 22 16 N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 23 23 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 7 9 9 8 10 9 2 0 7 10 16 21 30 35 42 50 52
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 -6 -2 0 3 0 -1 -6 -5 -5
SHEAR DIR 68 80 109 96 88 60 96 184 266 242 250 240 245 241 238 232 239
SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.2 25.7 24.9 23.9 23.9 23.9 24.1 24.2 24.6 24.8
POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 146 147 144 143 142 137 121 112 102 101 101 103 104 108 110
200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 -55.0 -54.7 -54.9
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
700-500 MB RH 76 78 78 78 77 76 70 66 64 61 56 51 48 48 46 46 44
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 10 12 10 11 9 9 8 6 5 3 1 LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -10 -8 -2 0 1 1 -3 -19 -33 -32 -35 -30 -26 -18 -26 -21 -36
200 MB DIV 54 61 53 40 12 9 45 59 46 20 2 -17 -26 -8 24 18 4
700-850 TADV 0 0 3 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 2 2 2 3 9 12 8
LAND (KM) 1753 1769 1798 1835 1877 2004 2148 2286 2154 1892 1668 1478 1292 1099 910 741 581
LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.3 11.7 12.0 12.4 13.2 14.1 15.0 15.9 16.8 17.5 18.2 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.4 122.3 123.3 124.4 126.9 129.6 132.3 134.8 137.1 139.1 140.8 142.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 13 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 12 10 10 10 7 10 12 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 25. 28. 30. 30. 29. 28. 26. 26. 26.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 1. -2. -6. -14. -20.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -15.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 1. 2. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 19. 23. 27. 24. 21. 16. 8. 2. -4. -12. -18.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.9 120.7

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982021 INVEST 07/22/21 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.60 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.7% 6.2% 2.2% 0.9% 0.2% 2.8% 4.0% 7.9%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.2% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 1.3% 2.6%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982021 INVEST 07/22/21 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS wants to spin up an area east of this area within the monsoon trough.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jul 22 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of disturbed weather located about 1100 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are generally conducive for some slow
development of this system through the weekend before it moves
across cooler waters early next week while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10-15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[Yellow Evan]

This has some chance in my view given the the favorable 200hPa pattern even if the GFS is the only model to show it but I doubt it’ll be more than a minimal tropical storm. TUTT currently kicks in around 136W.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS still showing something weak.

[ElectricStorm]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Jul 22 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of disturbed weather located about 1150 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is still
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are generally conducive for some development, and this
system could become a tropical depression this weekend before it
moves across cooler waters early next week while it heads westward
to west-northwestward at 10-15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[Kingarabian]

00z CMC also briefly develops it.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 23 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of disturbed weather located about 1200 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are generally conducive for additional development, and
this system could become a tropical depression this weekend or early
next week before it reaches cooler waters while moving westward to
west-northwestward at 10-15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Beven

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS peaks it at 994mb.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF still not biting.

[Kingarabian]

Issue here is that the model want to develop it as it reaches 130W-140W. Upper level westerlies remain in control over the CPAC for the next week or so. In about 2 weeks, they should start to back off.

[Kingarabian]

Pretty mild support on this one from the EPS.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS now brings this to 993 mbar.

[Yellow Evan]

A broad area of low pressure located about 1300 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are generally conducive for additional development, and
this system could become a tropical depression this weekend or early
next week before it reaches cooler waters while moving westward to
west-northwestward at 10-15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Kingarabian]

HWRF makes this a CPAC classic.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jul 24 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure located about 1400 miles west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are generally conducive for development, and this system
could become a tropical depression this weekend or early next week
before it reaches cooler waters while moving westward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Sciencerocks]