ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

[Weatherboy1]

Definitely more interesting today … and of course we’re “Code Orange” now. Typical that something forming in that area would get swept N/NE eventually. But this one could come west based on a handful of early models. Will see

[tropicwatch]

Definitely more interesting today … and of course we’re “Code Orange” now. Typical that something forming in that area would get swept N/NE eventually. But this one could come west based on a handful of early models. Will see

The high over the Gulf of Mexico could certainly make that happen.

[ronjon]

Pretty strong NW shear...whole system looks to be dropping S-SE. CMC and ICON take into JAX/SE Georgia eventually. 12z GFS and Euro across central Florida west into the GOM and weak.

[Weatherboy1]

Model map over at TT website has that “squashed spider” pattern to it Hard to make a high confidence forecast here for now

[cycloneye]

EP, 90, 2021050906, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1076W, 30, 1006, LO

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Certainly has the look of a developing tropical cyclone.

[psyclone]

I'm gonna wishcast some cooling showers from this. Yesterday's high of 97 and low of 80 @ tampa was a tad much.

[captainbarbossa19]

So I see that some models are taking the vortex across the FL peninsula, but why does the NHC not show this on the TWO graph? Do they think it is not going to head west at all?

[lrak]

Winds are up and pressure is going DOWN

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/images/buoycam/Z48A_2021_07_23_1910.jpg

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009

[AlphaToOmega]

From Tropical Tidbits:

Invest 90L
As of 18:00 UTC Jul 23, 2021:

Location: 30.8°N 78.9°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1016 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1019 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 nm
Radius of Maximum Wind: 75 nm

[captainbarbossa19]

From Tropical Tidbits:

Invest 90L
As of 18:00 UTC Jul 23, 2021:

Location: 30.8°N 78.9°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1016 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1019 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 nm
Radius of Maximum Wind: 75 nm

I think that a big latitude adjustment south is going to be needed at 0z.

[NDG]

From 5 hours ago, what was seen pushing to the south was nothing but the mid level circulation being sheared to the south, the broad surface low is well to the north of the convection.

[Iceresistance]

The uncertainty is high with this system, I hope it retrogrades towards (Like some models are showing.) Texas to push back the heat dome!

[TexasF6]

The uncertainty is high with this system, I hope it retrogrades towards (Like some models are showing.) Texas to push back the heat dome!

Yes please! No heat dome!!!

[ronjon]

So I see that some models are taking the vortex across the FL peninsula, but why does the NHC not show this on the TWO graph? Do they think it is not going to head west at all?

My guess is the uncertainty with the models - best to just show meandering now off the coast for now until better guidance agreement.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1418669118664871936

[cycloneye]

Interesting from PP.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1418671710270853120

[ChrisH-UK]

ASCAT from 20:12 UTC is showing 30knt winds. The models have winds no where near this and the one that does has 50 knot winds tomorrow, which I would consider the model been stupid.

[Nimbus]

The tail end of the front is rolling southeast may be a closed circulation by tonight.

[jaxfladude]

No big surprise with this system, right? Just some heavy winds and rains for Northeastern Florida\Southeastern Georgia?