2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[toad strangler]

Look out Caribbean Islands & the Western Atlantic Basin

 http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1419021420080685058

[AlphaToOmega]

http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1419021420080685058?s=20

2021 has a strong Atlantic Equatorial Mode, but so far three (maybe four in a couple of days) storms have developed in the subtropics: Ana, Bill, and Danny.

[toad strangler]

http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1419021420080685058?s=20

2021 has a strong Atlantic Equatorial Mode, but so far three (maybe four in a couple of days) storms have developed in the subtropics: Ana, Bill, and Danny.

No analog or group of analogs will ever stick strictly to the plot, the atmosphere is way too complicated for that

[Hammy]

The EPS, whether long-range or otherwise, tends to miss a lot of weak systems and marginal hurricanes, but it does well in terms of gauging the potential for intense activity. So I think it can be used to assess the potential for higher-end long-trackers during the peak of the season. In this case it agrees relatively well with the BoM’s ACCESS, the JMA, and the CFSv2 in suggesting a suppressed ITCZ, a strong TUTT, a fairly coolish MDR vs. the subtropics, and possible sinking air over the basin during the “traditional” peak. Also, the balance of the guidance suggests some additional VWS from EPAC convection/activity during the same timeframe, especially through the first half of September. So while I wouldn’t “cancel” the season per se, I think there is a good chance that it will underperform relative to expectations/forecasts. We shall see.

I can almost guarantee this will age like milk just like the things you said last year about 2020. Come November I think you will probably be off in a lot of ways no offense. The fact Elsa existed shows the MDR might be more active this year compared to last.

I am focusing mainly on seasonal ACE to gauge this season. Let us wait and see how ACE ends up come the peak of the season. ≥ 150 seems rather unlikely.

Euro is forecasting above normal ACE and has come in under what's actually played out for the last seven consecutive seasons.

[SFLcane]

Look out Caribbean Islands & the Western Atlantic Basin

http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1419021420080685058?s=20

Yessir… That 500mb pattern will make for some long nights.

[aspen]

Look out Caribbean Islands & the Western Atlantic Basin

http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1419021420080685058?s=20

The 500mb steering pattern forecast for ASO might explain the decreased TC frequency in the composite Webb posted. Yes, it is based on ENSO state, MDR temps, and the presence of an Atlantic Nino, but that 500mb pattern could prevent TCs from passing within the 25-35N/50-80W region with low TC frequency in that map. By the same reasoning, it would also be part of the reason for the greater TC frequency in the Caribbean and Gulf — any Cape Verde storms are forced to stay down there instead of recurving into the subtropics.

Could the presence of this blocking 500mb pattern be correlated to the Atlantic Nino?

[AlphaToOmega]

AMO data straight from NOAA
Since February 2019, we have been in a consistent +AMO pattern.

[Category5Kaiju]

Look out Caribbean Islands & the Western Atlantic Basin

http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1419021420080685058?s=20

The 500mb steering pattern forecast for ASO might explain the decreased TC frequency in the composite Webb posted. Yes, it is based on ENSO state, MDR temps, and the presence of an Atlantic Nino, but that 500mb pattern could prevent TCs from passing within the 25-35N/50-80W region with low TC frequency in that map. By the same reasoning, it would also be part of the reason for the greater TC frequency in the Caribbean and Gulf — any Cape Verde storms are forced to stay down there instead of recurving into the subtropics.

Could the presence of this blocking 500mb pattern be correlated to the Atlantic Nino?

That's what I've been thinking too; either way, the fact that we could see a pattern that does not encourage many recurving storms is a sinister sign to say the least, and something does tell me that the Caribbean Sea could be a hotspot for activity (with perhaps the possibility of some strong hurricanes) later this season.

[captainbarbossa19]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1418992626179612673?s=21

https://i.ibb.co/BPwLRzQ/Analogs-1.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/VTH1TR2/Ska-rmavbild-2021-07-24-kl-20-58-49.png
https://i.ibb.co/BLdBc1N/Ska-rmavbild-2021-07-24-kl-21-04-04.png

Based on the data at hand, major hurricanes in these years tended to cluster a) north of the Leeward Islands and just east of Florida; b) over the western Caribbean, the Yucatán Channel, and the eastern two-thirds of the Gulf of Mexico; and c) over and near Bermuda. It is interesting to note that the years aforementioned included some of the most notorious on record for coastal Georgia and the Carolinas: 1893, 1898, 1989, and 1996. The infamous year of 1938 is present, and 1934 also featured a hurricane impact on Long Island, NY. Besides 1893, the years 1894, 1909, 1916, 1917, 1974, and 2018 all featured MH impacts between the Mississippi River Delta and the Florida Panhandle. Besides 1909, the years 1910, 1921, and 1924 also featured late-season (M)H impacts that brought significant rainfall and storm surge to western Cuba, the west coast of peninsular Florida, and/or the Florida Keys. Overall, while most of the MH impacts occurred either on the Gulf Coast or along the East Coast north of peninsular FL, there were some notable exceptions: the 1947 Fort Lauderdale and 1949 Florida hurricanes. In particular, the 1947 hurricane crossed South Florida and entered the Gulf en route to the MS River Delta of Louisiana. In Mississippi the 1947 hurricane produced some of the highest local storm tides observed prior to Camille (1969). The 1947 hurricane, along with a later hurricane in October, contributed to severe freshwater flooding across most of South-Central FL.

One thing I do not like about this is seeing that favored area in the western Gulf. I am particularly concerned for people in SW Louisiana who were hit hard by Laura last year. They do not need another storm.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1418992626179612673?s=21

https://i.ibb.co/BPwLRzQ/Analogs-1.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/VTH1TR2/Ska-rmavbild-2021-07-24-kl-20-58-49.png
https://i.ibb.co/BLdBc1N/Ska-rmavbild-2021-07-24-kl-21-04-04.png

Based on the data at hand, major hurricanes in these years tended to cluster a) north of the Leeward Islands and just east of Florida; b) over the western Caribbean, the Yucatán Channel, and the eastern two-thirds of the Gulf of Mexico; and c) over and near Bermuda. It is interesting to note that the years aforementioned included some of the most notorious on record for coastal Georgia and the Carolinas: 1893, 1898, 1989, and 1996. The infamous year of 1938 is present, and 1934 also featured a hurricane impact on Long Island, NY. Besides 1893, the years 1894, 1909, 1916, 1917, 1974, and 2018 all featured MH impacts between the Mississippi River Delta and the Florida Panhandle. Besides 1909, the years 1910, 1921, and 1924 also featured late-season (M)H impacts that brought significant rainfall and storm surge to western Cuba, the west coast of peninsular Florida, and/or the Florida Keys. Overall, while most of the MH impacts occurred either on the Gulf Coast or along the East Coast north of peninsular FL, there were some notable exceptions: the 1947 Fort Lauderdale and 1949 Florida hurricanes. In particular, the 1947 hurricane crossed South Florida and entered the Gulf en route to the MS River Delta of Louisiana. In Mississippi the 1947 hurricane produced some of the highest local storm tides observed prior to Camille (1969). The 1947 hurricane, along with a later hurricane in October, contributed to severe freshwater flooding across most of South-Central FL.

One thing I do not like about this is seeing that favored area in the western Gulf. I am particularly concerned for people in SW Louisiana who were hit hard by Laura last year. They do not need another storm.

With this season having a good chance at shaping up to be a land-strike heavy season, I am also particularly wary about places like Corpus Christi, Marsh Harbor, Puerto Rico, Nicaragua, Mexico Beach, and the Carolinas. These places in particular have already endured some of the most devastating storms in recent years, and it would really break my heart to see another terrible storm this year hit those places again. Let's hope that does not happen at all, and for that matter any other Atlantic coast region.

[Deshaunrob17]

The EPS, whether long-range or otherwise, tends to miss a lot of weak systems and marginal hurricanes, but it does well in terms of gauging the potential for intense activity. So I think it can be used to assess the potential for higher-end long-trackers during the peak of the season. In this case it agrees relatively well with the BoM’s ACCESS, the JMA, and the CFSv2 in suggesting a suppressed ITCZ, a strong TUTT, a fairly coolish MDR vs. the subtropics, and possible sinking air over the basin during the “traditional” peak. Also, the balance of the guidance suggests some additional VWS from EPAC convection/activity during the same timeframe, especially through the first half of September. So while I wouldn’t “cancel” the season per se, I think there is a good chance that it will underperform relative to expectations/forecasts. We shall see.

I can almost guarantee this will age like milk just like the things you said last year about 2020. Come November I think you will probably be off in a lot of ways no offense. The fact Elsa existed shows the MDR might be more active this year compared to last.

I am focusing mainly on seasonal ACE to gauge this season. Let us wait and see how ACE ends up come the peak of the season. ≥ 150 seems rather unlikely.

I won’t say unlikely until we hit mid September... Maybe less likely than initially thought

[toad strangler]

https://i.ibb.co/BPwLRzQ/Analogs-1.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/VTH1TR2/Ska-rmavbild-2021-07-24-kl-20-58-49.png
https://i.ibb.co/BLdBc1N/Ska-rmavbild-2021-07-24-kl-21-04-04.png

Based on the data at hand, major hurricanes in these years tended to cluster a) north of the Leeward Islands and just east of Florida; b) over the western Caribbean, the Yucatán Channel, and the eastern two-thirds of the Gulf of Mexico; and c) over and near Bermuda. It is interesting to note that the years aforementioned included some of the most notorious on record for coastal Georgia and the Carolinas: 1893, 1898, 1989, and 1996. The infamous year of 1938 is present, and 1934 also featured a hurricane impact on Long Island, NY. Besides 1893, the years 1894, 1909, 1916, 1917, 1974, and 2018 all featured MH impacts between the Mississippi River Delta and the Florida Panhandle. Besides 1909, the years 1910, 1921, and 1924 also featured late-season (M)H impacts that brought significant rainfall and storm surge to western Cuba, the west coast of peninsular Florida, and/or the Florida Keys. Overall, while most of the MH impacts occurred either on the Gulf Coast or along the East Coast north of peninsular FL, there were some notable exceptions: the 1947 Fort Lauderdale and 1949 Florida hurricanes. In particular, the 1947 hurricane crossed South Florida and entered the Gulf en route to the MS River Delta of Louisiana. In Mississippi the 1947 hurricane produced some of the highest local storm tides observed prior to Camille (1969). The 1947 hurricane, along with a later hurricane in October, contributed to severe freshwater flooding across most of South-Central FL.

One thing I do not like about this is seeing that favored area in the western Gulf. I am particularly concerned for people in SW Louisiana who were hit hard by Laura last year. They do not need another storm.

With this season having a good chance at shaping up to be a land-strike heavy season, I am also particularly wary about places like Corpus Christi, Marsh Harbor, Puerto Rico, Nicaragua, Mexico Beach, and the Carolinas. These places in particular have already endured some of the most devastating storms in recent years, and it would really break my heart to see another terrible storm this year hit those places again. Let's hope that does not happen at all, and for that matter any other Atlantic coast region.

There is nothing any of us can do to affect the outcome of tropical cyclones.

[Category5Kaiju]

One thing I do not like about this is seeing that favored area in the western Gulf. I am particularly concerned for people in SW Louisiana who were hit hard by Laura last year. They do not need another storm.

With this season having a good chance at shaping up to be a land-strike heavy season, I am also particularly wary about places like Corpus Christi, Marsh Harbor, Puerto Rico, Nicaragua, Mexico Beach, and the Carolinas. These places in particular have already endured some of the most devastating storms in recent years, and it would really break my heart to see another terrible storm this year hit those places again. Let's hope that does not happen at all, and for that matter any other Atlantic coast region.

There is nothing any of us can do to affect the outcome of tropical cyclones.

Yes precisely, which is why we can only hope so far and instead must find ways to stay safe and alert those who are at risk to evacuate, hunker down, etc. It almost feels like with every recent year since 2016 featuring at least one destructive and memorable hurricane, every subsequent year since at least 2018, before the meat of the season, I'm left wondering what town or city will be struck this season. It's almost as if you know major impacts will occur, but not where they will occur exactly. Not a great feeling to have, but that's why we have weather enthusiasts and meterologists who monitor these closely and make sure everybody is as safe and aware as they can be!

[AlphaToOmega]

One thing I do not like about this is seeing that favored area in the western Gulf. I am particularly concerned for people in SW Louisiana who were hit hard by Laura last year. They do not need another storm.

With this season having a good chance at shaping up to be a land-strike heavy season, I am also particularly wary about places like Corpus Christi, Marsh Harbor, Puerto Rico, Nicaragua, Mexico Beach, and the Carolinas. These places in particular have already endured some of the most devastating storms in recent years, and it would really break my heart to see another terrible storm this year hit those places again. Let's hope that does not happen at all, and for that matter any other Atlantic coast region.

There is nothing any of us can do to affect the outcome of tropical cyclones. These posts are common and come from good hearts. A suggestion could be to start a thread dedicated to worrying about certain locations so that the main threads can stick to the science.

There is absolutely nothing that can be done for people in the Gulf of Mexico, East Coast, Antilles, Bahamas, or Central America except prepare. They should be lucky that sub-seasonal conditions are unfavorable. It is basically a guarantee that a ridge will form in Southeast Canada, steering storms to the northwest; every single recent run of the CFSv2, CanSIPS, and JMA show this pattern. Storms that form in the Western Atlantic will obviously have impacts. Storms that form in the Main Development Region will either take a track similar to Ivan (2004) or Isabel (2003) based on steering. In any case, there is practically no way for an MDR storm not to affect land with this setup.

[Category5Kaiju]

I've said this before earlier a couple months ago, but if we were to see a strong September Caribbean cruiser like Dean, Ivan, or Allen, I personally would not be surprised in the slightest bit.

[aspen]

I've said this before earlier a couple months ago, but if we were to see a strong September Caribbean cruiser like Dean, Ivan, or Allen, I personally would not be surprised in the slightest bit.

I thought so for 2020, but that never materialized, thankfully. This year does have a better shot due to a lower ITCZ, but these big Caribbean Cruisers have been so rare in the last 15 years that I’m thinking we’re more likely to get spared again…but that doesn’t mean people should let their guard down. Matthew, Maria, Delta, Eta, and Iota only crossed through part of the Caribbean and therefore weren’t Caribbean Cruisers, but they were all very impactful systems.

Recent VP anomaly runs suggested that the season, like last year, could remain active for longer. The onset of another La Niña would also increase the chances of WCar systems even if we don’t see any long-trackers.

[Stormybajan]

I've said this before earlier a couple months ago, but if we were to see a strong September Caribbean cruiser like Dean, Ivan, or Allen, I personally would not be surprised in the slightest bit.

Lol werent Hurricane Allen and Hurricane Dean August Avengers instead of September?

[captainbarbossa19]

I've said this before earlier a couple months ago, but if we were to see a strong September Caribbean cruiser like Dean, Ivan, or Allen, I personally would not be surprised in the slightest bit.

Lol werent Hurricane Allen and Hurricane Dean August Avengers instead of September?

Right. Dean became a tropical storm on August 14, while Allen became one on August 2.

[Category5Kaiju]

Yeah sorry about the misunderstanding; what I meant was I wouldn't be surprised to see a Caribbean Cruiser storm in September that acts and takes a path similar to ones like Ivan, Allen, and Dean. I know Allen and Dean were August cruisers, but I meant to say September as typically at least in recent years September is usually the time when we get to see the major hurricanes; early to mid August majors have not really happened in recent times.

[Shell Mound]

I can almost guarantee this will age like milk just like the things you said last year about 2020. Come November I think you will probably be off in a lot of ways no offense. The fact Elsa existed shows the MDR might be more active this year compared to last.

I am focusing mainly on seasonal ACE to gauge this season. Let us wait and see how ACE ends up come the peak of the season. ≥ 150 seems rather unlikely.

Euro is forecasting above normal ACE and has come in under what's actually played out for the last seven consecutive seasons.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1419023584257662977




However, note that a -AMM/-AMO configuration would offset the Atlantic Niño in terms of ACE and would result in shorter-lived systems forming farther W.