ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[AlphaToOmega]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/9885/25u9u6.gif

That should be enough to classify it as a depression.

[Sciencerocks]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/9885/25u9u6.gif

That should be enough to classify it as a depression.

If it can sustain this convection until at least 4-5pm est I'd agree.

[NDG]

West winds over SE FL makes for the best beach conditions from Palm Beach down to Miami, water is a crystal clear pool, no problems with Red Tide or Sargassum. You can't tell 90L is just a few miles to the NE.

[NDG]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/9885/25u9u6.gif

That should be enough to classify it as a depression.

Look at all of the outflow boundaries on the NE quadrant, convection will not hold too long with so much dry continental air nearby in the mid and upper levels.
I also can't find any winds from nearby ships or buoys higher than 20 knots, 90L is weak.

[NDG]

Naked swirls alert, rotating around a broader circulation!
Also look at now that easterly strong shear taking over, shearing the tops away, that shear goes all the way to the mid levels.

[AJC3]

A tiny naked swirl has shown itself near 29.7N 78.4W. I doubt it will maintain itself as a trackable feature given how small/exposed it is. And given the dry environment the system is embedded in, all it would take is a small convective blowup nearby to spit out an arcus cloud that would obliterate it. The larger vorticity pouch, which is what you'l want to track, looks more elongated SW-NE (based on the CU lines) than it did yesterday, and the convection remains sporadic/transient. I don't see this getting classified at 5, and, frankly, don't think the chances for this system to become a TD have increased at all.

[AlphaToOmega]

This can still develop if it somehow recurves out to sea. It is too early to make a definitive judgement about the development of this system.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Looking very unhealthy. never thought this would likely become a td. Usually I am pretty optimistic but this is jus an eyesore.

[InfernoFlameCat]

This can still develop if it somehow recurves out to sea. It is too early to make a definitive judgement about the development of this system.

Its not recurving out to sea. Very powerful ridge is driving this west. It might develop in the gulf but I think that is unlikely.

[Category5Kaiju]

Not sure if it'll recurve on out

[InfernoFlameCat]

Ok the system is looking a little better with more convection. Still somewhat resembles a MCS

[wxman57]

It will be moving inland into NE Florida this evening with no wind and little rain. Too much shear and dry air.

[AlphaToOmega]

This is your reminder that storms can form on land

[NDG]

This can still develop if it somehow recurves out to sea. It is too early to make a definitive judgement about the development of this system.

You should at least get an E for effort & persistency for looking for anything that "could" make it develop

[Category5Kaiju]

While possible tropical storms forming over land is very rare and something that does not happen every season. I mean sure you could get a Julia 2016, but I would not heavily depend on such

[AlphaToOmega]

This can still develop if it somehow recurves out to sea. It is too early to make a definitive judgement about the development of this system.

You should at least get an E for effort & persistency for looking for anything that "could" make it develop

The NHC still has it at a 50% chance for a reason. Plus, the HWRF still shows development. I still need to see what the 12Z ECMWF says in terms of chances. We are also approaching diurnal minimum. The GEFS ensembles and hurricane models are split about whether or not this system will recurve out to sea or go into the Gulf.

This looks like a mesoscale convective vortex. We got Hurricane Barry out of one. I still think it has a chance.

[Category5Kaiju]

This can still develop if it somehow recurves out to sea. It is too early to make a definitive judgement about the development of this system.

You should at least get an E for effort & persistency for looking for anything that "could" make it develop

The NHC still has it at a 50% chance for a reason. Plus, the HWRF still shows development. I still need to see what the 12Z ECMWF says in terms of chances. We are also approaching diurnal minimum. The GEFS ensembles and hurricane models are split about whether or not this system will recurve out to sea or go into the Gulf.

This looks like a mesoscale convective vortex. We got Hurricane Barry out of one. I still think it has a chance.

Haha, yes, Barry 2019 is a great example of how you could have the ugliest system but if it by definition fulfills the hardline characteristics of a TC then it by definition is a TC.

[psyclone]

Whatever chance it has is low and decreasing. I'm surprised the NHC has held development odds at 50% for more than 1 forecast cycle. 50% has been exceedingly charitable.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure area located about 150 miles east of Daytona Beach,
Florida, is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity
mainly over the southern part of its circulation. Preliminary
reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that this system has changed little in strength since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could still form later today or early
Monday while the low drifts westward or west-northwestward toward
the northeast coast of Florida. Interests in Florida should
continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch