2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[GCANE]

The pattern of Rossby Waves is not the same as last year.
Anticyclonic Rossby Wave Breaks were associated with most of the major TCs in the Atlantic Basin last year.
This year, it seems like the heat wave in the west CONUS is putting a block on Rossby Wave circulating into the Atlantic MDR.
If this continues, we may have a quiet season.

[toad strangler]

The pattern of Rossby Waves is not the same as last year.
Anticyclonic Rossby Wave Breaks were associated with most of the major TCs in the Atlantic Basin last year.
This year, it seems like the heat wave in the west CONUS is putting a block on Rossby Wave circulating into the Atlantic MDR.
If this continues, we may have a quiet season.

I don’t recall even one of the professional seasonal outlooks having Rossby waves on the indicator totem poll. Unless I missed it?

[Category5Kaiju]

The pattern of Rossby Waves is not the same as last year.
Anticyclonic Rossby Wave Breaks were associated with most of the major TCs in the Atlantic Basin last year.
This year, it seems like the heat wave in the west CONUS is putting a block on Rossby Wave circulating into the Atlantic MDR.
If this continues, we may have a quiet season.

I don’t recall even one of the professional seasonal outlooks having Rossby waves on the indicator totem poll. Unless I missed it?

Yeah I have not heard either, is there like a credible source for this? From my understanding many agencies are still calling for 19-20 NSs and a decently busy peak season, with activity potentially dragging on into October or November with the aid of a likely return to La Nina.

[SFLcane]

The pattern of Rossby Waves is not the same as last year.
Anticyclonic Rossby Wave Breaks were associated with most of the major TCs in the Atlantic Basin last year.
This year, it seems like the heat wave in the west CONUS is putting a block on Rossby Wave circulating into the Atlantic MDR.
If this continues, we may have a quiet season.

Uh no sir… when the MJO comes into favorable phase across the Atl in early August I expect things to pop around Aug 10-20.

[CFLHurricane]

The pattern of Rossby Waves is not the same as last year.
Anticyclonic Rossby Wave Breaks were associated with most of the major TCs in the Atlantic Basin last year.
This year, it seems like the heat wave in the west CONUS is putting a block on Rossby Wave circulating into the Atlantic MDR.
If this continues, we may have a quiet season.

[aspen]

The pattern of Rossby Waves is not the same as last year.
Anticyclonic Rossby Wave Breaks were associated with most of the major TCs in the Atlantic Basin last year.
This year, it seems like the heat wave in the west CONUS is putting a block on Rossby Wave circulating into the Atlantic MDR.
If this continues, we may have a quiet season.

GCANE being pessimistic about activity/development? What is this, some alternate universe?

We’ll have to wait and see if Rossby Waves become a big factor in TCG this year, but I highly doubt the lack of them will be enough the counter other signals for an active season — a record wet Africa, a great VP setup for mid-August through October, a developing La Niña paired with an Atlantic Niño, a more favorable position of the ITCZ compared to last year, and the fact that we got a low-rider MDR/ECar hurricane in early July.

[Stormybajan]

The pattern of Rossby Waves is not the same as last year.
Anticyclonic Rossby Wave Breaks were associated with most of the major TCs in the Atlantic Basin last year.
This year, it seems like the heat wave in the west CONUS is putting a block on Rossby Wave circulating into the Atlantic MDR.
If this continues, we may have a quiet season.

Hmm I'm not educated on Rossby waves and I wont pretend to be, but hmmm are you sure these will have that significant of an impact on the season? With the decently warm southern MDR, suppressed ITCZ to the south which should allow for more waves to getting going south where the warmest waters are, cool-neutral or weak nina conditions. I was never expecting hyperactivity from this season but I still think we will see another above average season to add to the pile in a row we have seen over the last 5 years

[toad strangler]

The pattern of Rossby Waves is not the same as last year.
Anticyclonic Rossby Wave Breaks were associated with most of the major TCs in the Atlantic Basin last year.
This year, it seems like the heat wave in the west CONUS is putting a block on Rossby Wave circulating into the Atlantic MDR.
If this continues, we may have a quiet season.

Hmm I'm not educated on Rossby waves and I wont pretend to be, but hmmm are you sure these will have that significant of an impact on the season? With the decently warm southern MDR, suppressed ITCZ to the south which should allow for more waves to getting going south where the warmest waters are, cool-neutral or weak nina conditions. I was never expecting hyperactivity from this season but I still think we will see another above average season to add to the pile in a row we have seen over the last 5 years

Well in a simple nutshell Rossby Waves act as a vehicle to transfer warmth from the tropics to the sub tropics and cool air from the sub tropics to the tropics with the attempt to balance the atmosphere out. That's how I very amateurly understand it. But I see no reference to these waves affecting the outcome of season and none of the big time pro mets mention them in seasonal outlooks that I can recall. So, meh.

[cheezyWXguy]

The pattern of Rossby Waves is not the same as last year.
Anticyclonic Rossby Wave Breaks were associated with most of the major TCs in the Atlantic Basin last year.
This year, it seems like the heat wave in the west CONUS is putting a block on Rossby Wave circulating into the Atlantic MDR.
If this continues, we may have a quiet season.

Hmm I'm not educated on Rossby waves and I wont pretend to be, but hmmm are you sure these will have that significant of an impact on the season? With the decently warm southern MDR, suppressed ITCZ to the south which should allow for more waves to getting going south where the warmest waters are, cool-neutral or weak nina conditions. I was never expecting hyperactivity from this season but I still think we will see another above average season to add to the pile in a row we have seen over the last 5 years

If I recall correctly, Rossby waves are basically troughs, and anticyclonic rossby wave breaks are the area out to the immediate east of the trough where upper level anticyclonic flow is enhanced. If a TC finds its way into a favorable location in the ARWB, it would have its outflow enhanced allow it to strength more rapidly through more effective ventilation.

If my understanding is correct, and it may very well not be, I don’t see lack of these as preventative to intense storms, and I am not sure I see lack of them altogether as we progress into fall when increased troughiness tends to occur. Even if these high pressure cells do linger for some time over the western US, would this outright prevent troughs from diving south further east into areas that would influence conditions in the gulf, Caribbean, or off the east coast?

[Category5Kaiju]

If anything anticyclones are the ones to watch for as they can really allow for ventilation and a storm to RI under the right conditions otherwise

[SFLcane]

Thought I’d place this right here so we can tone down these season cancel posts.

 https://twitter.com/tylerjstanfield/status/1293254898168012803

[Category5Kaiju]

Thought I’d place this right here so we can tone down these season cancel posts.

https://twitter.com/tylerjstanfield/status/1293254898168012803

Oh yeah, that Tweet. I remember liking it so much that I even saved a screenshot of it on my phone

[aspen]

Thought I’d place this right here so we can tone down these season cancel posts.

https://twitter.com/tylerjstanfield/status/1293254898168012803

15 days later, Laura became a 130 kt Cat 4 in the Gulf. Goes to show how quickly things can change in just a few weeks when the MJO background state becomes more favorable.

[AnnularCane]

Thought I’d place this right here so we can tone down these season cancel posts.

https://twitter.com/tylerjstanfield/status/1293254898168012803

15 days later, Laura became a 130 kt Cat 4 in the Gulf. Goes to show how quickly things can change in just a few weeks when the MJO background state becomes more favorable.

I didn't even notice the date!

Sometimes it can even be just a few days.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Thought I’d place this right here so we can tone down these season cancel posts.

https://twitter.com/tylerjstanfield/status/1293254898168012803

15 days later, Laura became a 130 kt Cat 4 in the Gulf. Goes to show how quickly things can change in just a few weeks when the MJO background state becomes more favorable.

Don't forget that 2017 was officially cancelled in early/mid august because the GFS/Euro showed nothing. Irma and Harvey happened within 30 days of that...

[aspen]

Thought I’d place this right here so we can tone down these season cancel posts.

https://twitter.com/tylerjstanfield/status/1293254898168012803

15 days later, Laura became a 130 kt Cat 4 in the Gulf. Goes to show how quickly things can change in just a few weeks when the MJO background state becomes more favorable.

Don't forget that 2017 was officially cancelled in early/mid august because the GFS/Euro showed nothing. Irma and Harvey happened within 30 days of that...

That I really don’t get. Franklin and Gert — a borderline major — were both in that time frame, and model results for more than a week out are notoriously unreliable. Cancelling the season during a long break in activity is not as bad as cancelling when there are active storms or hurricanes.

[Woofde]

Hey guys first post here, I've been lurking here for 3 or 4 years, and following the tropics for around 10 years.

I've seen a lot of posts concerning the MDR and SST's, it seems to me that these are rapidly becoming more favorable as we approach peak season. Nearly the entire MDR is running average to above-average now as it seems some of the warmth from the Atl. Nino is migrating north.

In the Pacific SST's appear to be switching the other way. There is a pretty clear Cool Phase PDO signal. The SOI has rapidly increased, a pretty good signal for La Nina.

Obviously there are a lot of factors that play into whether a season is active or not, but from a SST perspective all signs point to an active season.

https://imgur.com/a/1cIuUbA

[AnnularCane]

Thought I’d place this right here so we can tone down these season cancel posts.

https://twitter.com/tylerjstanfield/status/1293254898168012803

15 days later, Laura became a 130 kt Cat 4 in the Gulf. Goes to show how quickly things can change in just a few weeks when the MJO background state becomes more favorable.

Don't forget that 2017 was officially cancelled in early/mid august because the GFS/Euro showed nothing. Irma and Harvey happened within 30 days of that...

Oh...weren't the models showing nothing whatsoever at one point for the day that Harvey made landfall?

[AxaltaRacing24]

15 days later, Laura became a 130 kt Cat 4 in the Gulf. Goes to show how quickly things can change in just a few weeks when the MJO background state becomes more favorable.

Don't forget that 2017 was officially cancelled in early/mid august because the GFS/Euro showed nothing. Irma and Harvey happened within 30 days of that...

Oh...weren't the models showing nothing whatsoever at one point for the day that Harvey made landfall?

correct

[Category5Kaiju]

In 2019, didn't Chantal, Dorian, and Erin also defy what the models were expecting? I specifically recall 2019 when literally nothing was forming after Barry and people started moaning that it would be a 1914