2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[Category5Kaiju]

Yeah I personally think this super strong Atlantic Nino is really throwing these models off

[wxman57]

Not too sure how believable that chart is because it's showed below-average instability for years, even in some seasons that, you know, didn't quite turn out below-average.

Those instability graphics are only for the Tropical Atlantic east of the Caribbean. They say nothing about conditions in the Caribbean, Gulf, or Subtropical Atlantic, or seasonal activity as a whole. They run from Jan 1 to Dec 31. Have to ignore the parts outside of hurricane season.

[Category5Kaiju]

Not too sure how believable that chart is because it's showed below-average instability for years, even in some seasons that, you know, didn't quite turn out below-average.

All I'll say is that compared to years like 2013, 2014, 2015, 2018, and 2019, the fact that 2021 is expected to fall into -ENSO, possibly weak Nina territory even, automatically gives it a big boost over those seasons.

[Deshaunrob17]

Season canceled !!!!
Lmao !!!

Just kidding

[AnnularCane]

Haven't been seeing those instability maps too much around here recently.

[AtlanticWind]

https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1419133471751016450
https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1419133476545212417
https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1419133480366116864

Seen this many times before
The atlantic is stable until it suddenly isnt.

[AlphaToOmega]

The warm water of the Atlantic Nino will likely migrate north. Combined with the strong WAM, this might be enough to have a strong +TNA. The JMA is forecasting a TNA 0.3-0.4 C above-normal, but it might ultimately be more than that. Last year, TNA was 0.5-0.6 C above-normal. 2017 TNA was 0.4-0.5 C above-normal. 2010 TNA was 0.7-0.8 C above-normal. 2005 TNA was 0.4-0.7 C above-normal. TNA data is here. Nobody actually knows; maybe the strong Atlantic Nino creates a warp in the spacetime continuum that keeps repeating the year 2021.

[tolakram]

If anything the instability charts are a trailing indicator. If a storm forms, they go up.

I've been posting them for years, by now we should all know they are fairly meaningless as a predictor. But hey, always good for some season cancel material.

[Category5Kaiju]

Just a personal take, but I think somebody needs to update those instability maps and make the average less high than what it is displayed as. Either that itself is not reflective of recent years, or there’s some weird pattern going on that is bypassing low instability in the tropics and contributing to active and damaging seasons in the recent past.

[Deshaunrob17]

Not too sure how believable that chart is because it's showed below-average instability for years, even in some seasons that, you know, didn't quite turn out below-average.

All I'll say is that compared to years like 2013, 2014, 2015, 2018, and 2019, the fact that 2021 is expected to fall into -ENSO, possibly weak Nina territory even, automatically gives it a big boost over those seasons.

Not really! 2013 had -ENSO and 2019 to some extent too (although 2019 was busy)

[Category5Kaiju]

Not too sure how believable that chart is because it's showed below-average instability for years, even in some seasons that, you know, didn't quite turn out below-average.

All I'll say is that compared to years like 2013, 2014, 2015, 2018, and 2019, the fact that 2021 is expected to fall into -ENSO, possibly weak Nina territory even, automatically gives it a big boost over those seasons.

Not really! 2013 had -ENSO and 2019 to some extent too (although 2019 was busy)

Well it looks like this year has a better chance at going to a weak La Niña state (something 2013 and 2019 lacked) and weak Nina Nina base states are historically associated with high and potentially impactful seasons

[wxman57]

The instability charts are not an indicator of whether or not the season will be active or impactful. Take last year, for example. Part of the reason that the western Caribbean and Gulf were so active was because the Tropical Atlantic was generally stable. Teddy became a hurricane there, but it didn't really get going until it moved out of the deep tropics. Laura could barely survive until it reached the Gulf. Gonzalo died as it reached the Caribbean. A stable Tropical Atlantic could mean activity shifts west to the Gulf and U.S. East Coast. The East U.S. Coast is the only area currently close to normal levels of instability, and that's the only region that has a slight chance of seeing a storm in the next 2 weeks.

I'm thinking that the currently stable Tropical Atlantic will remain stable through the season. No long-tracked hurricanes between the Caribbean and Africa, but development occurring farther west in the Caribbean, which threatens the Gulf Coast. A very wet July in Texas may signal an increased chance for a major impact on the Gulf Coast.

Tropical Atlantic: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

Caribbean: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_car_THDV.gif

Subtropical Atlantic: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_sat_THDV.gif

East U.S. Coast: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_eco_THDV.gif

Gulf of Mexico: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_gmx_THDV.gif

[Shell Mound]

The instability charts are not an indicator of whether or not the season will be active or impactful. Take last year, for example. Part of the reason that the western Caribbean and Gulf were so active was because the Tropical Atlantic was generally stable.

Why was the MDR so stable in ASO of 2020? If I recall correctly SST were above average in the MDR last season. La Niña and the ASW were in place, so why stability?

[NotSparta]

https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1419133471751016450
https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1419133476545212417
https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1419133480366116864

Honestly I stopped looking at that metric last year. It just doesn't seem useful

[SFLcane]

The instability charts are not an indicator of whether or not the season will be active or impactful. Take last year, for example. Part of the reason that the western Caribbean and Gulf were so active was because the Tropical Atlantic was generally stable. Teddy became a hurricane there, but it didn't really get going until it moved out of the deep tropics. Laura could barely survive until it reached the Gulf. Gonzalo died as it reached the Caribbean. A stable Tropical Atlantic could mean activity shifts west to the Gulf and U.S. East Coast. The East U.S. Coast is the only area currently close to normal levels of instability, and that's the only region that has a slight chance of seeing a storm in the next 2 weeks.

I'm thinking that the currently stable Tropical Atlantic will remain stable through the season. No long-tracked hurricanes between the Caribbean and Africa, but development occurring farther west in the Caribbean, which threatens the Gulf Coast. A very wet July in Texas may signal an increased chance for a major impact on the Gulf Coast.

Tropical Atlantic: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

Caribbean: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_car_THDV.gif

Subtropical Atlantic: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_sat_THDV.gif

East U.S. Coast: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_eco_THDV.gif

Gulf of Mexico: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_gmx_THDV.gif

Hmmm not to sure about that one. The basin as a whole is warming and with favorable rising motion near Africa I suspect come mid August we will see some waves developing closer to the islands. I for one am quite concerned about the over 500mb being shown by the euro and Cánsips and of late the CFS. Clearly would put the Caribbean, Florida and everyone at risk.

[MarioProtVI]

The instability charts are not an indicator of whether or not the season will be active or impactful. Take last year, for example. Part of the reason that the western Caribbean and Gulf were so active was because the Tropical Atlantic was generally stable. Teddy became a hurricane there, but it didn't really get going until it moved out of the deep tropics. Laura could barely survive until it reached the Gulf. Gonzalo died as it reached the Caribbean. A stable Tropical Atlantic could mean activity shifts west to the Gulf and U.S. East Coast. The East U.S. Coast is the only area currently close to normal levels of instability, and that's the only region that has a slight chance of seeing a storm in the next 2 weeks.

I'm thinking that the currently stable Tropical Atlantic will remain stable through the season. No long-tracked hurricanes between the Caribbean and Africa, but development occurring farther west in the Caribbean, which threatens the Gulf Coast. A very wet July in Texas may signal an increased chance for a major impact on the Gulf Coast.

Tropical Atlantic: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

Caribbean: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_car_THDV.gif

Subtropical Atlantic: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_sat_THDV.gif

East U.S. Coast: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_eco_THDV.gif

Gulf of Mexico: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_gmx_THDV.gif

Let’s see how that prediction verifies come November 30, which I think will age like milk. If the tropical Atlantic is so stable, why did we have several MDR invests in June and a (fast-moving) July MDR/Caribbean hurricane? If the Atlantic were really that stable Elsa wouldn’t have formed and the invests wouldn’t have even existed most likely. I can guarantee there will be at least some long trackers in the MDR and Caribbean this year. Everyone suddenly is downcasting as usual just because of a suppressed CCKW moving through which should be gone soon, and then we’ll really see things lighten up in a few weeks.

[Category5Kaiju]

Wouldn't it also be possible that whatever forms in the tropical Atlantic (assuming it is not very unstable) could get strong by taking advantage of low shear or less dry air and decent ssts but be a small system until it reaches the W Atlantic?

[InfernoFlameCat]

It’s July, of course things are stable. However like Wxman57 said I agree that storms will remain weak in the open Atlantic until they get close or into the GOM or CS.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Also when Wxman57 does get concerned about a system(Irma for example he picked up on it pretty quick it was a big threat) his instinct is almost dead on. So yeah feeling like this season may resemble major hurricanes like Ike or Ivan(yes it was major in the Atlantic but did not get crazy strong until in the CS) that wait until they get into the GOM or CS before going bonkers.
Also a powerful Ridge in the Atlantic May increase SAL in the Atlantic by pushing that dry air on its south side and flinging it all over the open tropical Atlantic.

[SFLcane]

We should start seeing something in the modeling in about 2-3 weeks.