2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[Shell Mound]

The instability charts are not an indicator of whether or not the season will be active or impactful. Take last year, for example. Part of the reason that the western Caribbean and Gulf were so active was because the Tropical Atlantic was generally stable. Teddy became a hurricane there, but it didn't really get going until it moved out of the deep tropics. Laura could barely survive until it reached the Gulf. Gonzalo died as it reached the Caribbean. A stable Tropical Atlantic could mean activity shifts west to the Gulf and U.S. East Coast. The East U.S. Coast is the only area currently close to normal levels of instability, and that's the only region that has a slight chance of seeing a storm in the next 2 weeks.

I'm thinking that the currently stable Tropical Atlantic will remain stable through the season. No long-tracked hurricanes between the Caribbean and Africa, but development occurring farther west in the Caribbean, which threatens the Gulf Coast. A very wet July in Texas may signal an increased chance for a major impact on the Gulf Coast.

Tropical Atlantic: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

Caribbean: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_car_THDV.gif

Subtropical Atlantic: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_sat_THDV.gif

East U.S. Coast: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_eco_THDV.gif

Gulf of Mexico: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_gmx_THDV.gif

I can guarantee there will be at least some long trackers in the MDR and Caribbean this year.

By “long-tracked hurricanes” wxman57 is likely alluding to storms that become (major) hurricanes in the MDR, like Ivan, Dean, or Irma. 2021 will likely lack those.*

*I am referring to (major) hurricanes in the MDR during the peak of the season, so I am excluding Elsa.

[psyclone]

The discussions in this thread are typically top notch and this year is no exception. Do we have an established correlation between excessive rain on the Gulf coast and hurricane impacts? It has been insanely wet over the northwest and north central gulf this year.

[AlphaToOmega]

The discussions in this thread are typically top notch and this year is no exception. Do we have an established correlation between excessive rain on the Gulf coast and hurricane impacts? It has been insanely wet over the northwest and north central gulf this year.

2020 had below-average Gulf precipitation, and you know how that went.

[Shell Mound]

The discussions in this thread are typically top notch and this year is no exception. Do we have an established correlation between excessive rain on the Gulf coast and hurricane impacts? It has been insanely wet over the northwest and north central gulf this year.

2020 had below-average Gulf precipitation

[Category5Kaiju]

Not sure if it really has anything to do with hurricanes and if so how so (I've heard mixed opinions on how well the spring's tornado season could predict the upcoming hurricane season), but this year's tornado season has been pretty lackluster

[InfernoFlameCat]

Not sure if it really has anything to do with hurricanes and if so how so (I've heard mixed opinions on how well the spring's tornado season could predict the upcoming hurricane season), but this year's tornado season has been pretty lackluster

Yeah that is not really a great correlation trend. 2020 had a marginal tornado season but was exceptional with tropical activity. 2011 was a bonkers tornado season and was active in tropics as well.

[cycloneye]

The 2020 indicators thread had 170 pages and when it was at July 26 it was at pages 96-97 and guess what, with the same discussions that are going on right now. Here it is for all to go back and see all the comments. Will the 2021 thread surpass the 2020 170 pages?

2020 Indicators thread

[InfernoFlameCat]

The discussions in this thread are typically top notch and this year is no exception. Do we have an established correlation between excessive rain on the Gulf coast and hurricane impacts? It has been insanely wet over the northwest and north central gulf this year.

2020 had below-average Gulf precipitation

https://i.ibb.co/xhbS0Pt/2020-JJrainfall-1.png

Yes. Alpha please check before saying things like that. Clearly 2020 gulf had above average rainfall in all places but the Fl bend which was the ONLY area of the coast not to receive a tropical storm warning.

[Category5Kaiju]

The 2020 indicators thread had 170 pages and when it was at July 26 it was at pages 96-97 and guess what, with the same discussions that are going on right now. Here it is for all to go back and see all the comments. Will the 2021 thread surpass the 2020 170 pages?

2020 Indicators thread

With a growing number of S2K followers (myself included after I joined late last year), I think so. Perhaps 2022 will beat 2021 in page count, who knows?

[AlphaToOmega]

2020 had below-average Gulf precipitation

https://i.ibb.co/xhbS0Pt/2020-JJrainfall-1.png

Yes. Alpha please check before saying things like that. Clearly 2020 gulf had above average rainfall in all places but the Fl bend which was the ONLY area of the coast not to receive a tropical storm warning.

Below-average precipitation for Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana

[Shell Mound]

https://i.ibb.co/xhbS0Pt/2020-JJrainfall-1.png

Yes. Alpha please check before saying things like that. Clearly 2020 gulf had above average rainfall in all places but the Fl bend which was the ONLY area of the coast not to receive a tropical storm warning.

Below-average precipitation for Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana
https://i.postimg.cc/15PPfqR1/Ard-Bbo-Fi-GS.png

That’s the daily precipitation rate, not the total accumulated precipitation. Also, portions of Florida’s Big Bend were under TS Warnings during Eta’s passage.

[Deshaunrob17]

He said the low instability is caused a very dry ITCZ this month Didn't seem so to me

[captainbarbossa19]

The discussions in this thread are typically top notch and this year is no exception. Do we have an established correlation between excessive rain on the Gulf coast and hurricane impacts? It has been insanely wet over the northwest and north central gulf this year.

2020 had below-average Gulf precipitation

https://i.ibb.co/xhbS0Pt/2020-JJrainfall-1.png

This graph is not very accurate. My area was quite wet in June and July last summer. Rain last summer was average to above-average. This summer was twice as wet.

Edit: I see that this is the daily rainfall. Makes sense because we had showers more frequently than last summer. We just had a ton of rain for June and July last year. In my opinion, I do not think this chart is very useful for determining hurricane impacts. 2005 was rather dry in my area during the summer and we had Hurricane Rita during September impact us.

[wxman57]

The instability charts are not an indicator of whether or not the season will be active or impactful. Take last year, for example. Part of the reason that the western Caribbean and Gulf were so active was because the Tropical Atlantic was generally stable. Teddy became a hurricane there, but it didn't really get going until it moved out of the deep tropics. Laura could barely survive until it reached the Gulf. Gonzalo died as it reached the Caribbean. A stable Tropical Atlantic could mean activity shifts west to the Gulf and U.S. East Coast. The East U.S. Coast is the only area currently close to normal levels of instability, and that's the only region that has a slight chance of seeing a storm in the next 2 weeks.

I'm thinking that the currently stable Tropical Atlantic will remain stable through the season. No long-tracked hurricanes between the Caribbean and Africa, but development occurring farther west in the Caribbean, which threatens the Gulf Coast. A very wet July in Texas may signal an increased chance for a major impact on the Gulf Coast.

Let’s see how that prediction verifies come November 30, which I think will age like milk. If the tropical Atlantic is so stable, why did we have several MDR invests in June and a (fast-moving) July MDR/Caribbean hurricane? If the Atlantic were really that stable Elsa wouldn’t have formed and the invests wouldn’t have even existed most likely. I can guarantee there will be at least some long trackers in the MDR and Caribbean this year. Everyone suddenly is downcasting as usual just because of a suppressed CCKW moving through which should be gone soon, and then we’ll really see things lighten up in a few weeks.

Elsa was never really well-organized. It struggled the whole way. You should not classify me as "downcasting", when I'm predicting 19 named storms and a significantly enhanced risk of a major impact on the Gulf and East Coast this year. I'm just saying that systems will likely struggle until they get out of the Tropical Atlantic.

The Tropical Atlantic seems to have "stabilized" after the 2017 season. Storms have generally struggled there in 2018, 2019, and last year. I think it's due to dry, sinking air. Doesn't matter if you boil the water beneath a stable atmosphere, it can't generate hurricanes as easily.

[MarioProtVI]

The instability charts are not an indicator of whether or not the season will be active or impactful. Take last year, for example. Part of the reason that the western Caribbean and Gulf were so active was because the Tropical Atlantic was generally stable. Teddy became a hurricane there, but it didn't really get going until it moved out of the deep tropics. Laura could barely survive until it reached the Gulf. Gonzalo died as it reached the Caribbean. A stable Tropical Atlantic could mean activity shifts west to the Gulf and U.S. East Coast. The East U.S. Coast is the only area currently close to normal levels of instability, and that's the only region that has a slight chance of seeing a storm in the next 2 weeks.

I'm thinking that the currently stable Tropical Atlantic will remain stable through the season. No long-tracked hurricanes between the Caribbean and Africa, but development occurring farther west in the Caribbean, which threatens the Gulf Coast. A very wet July in Texas may signal an increased chance for a major impact on the Gulf Coast.

Tropical Atlantic: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

Caribbean: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_car_THDV.gif

Subtropical Atlantic: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_sat_THDV.gif

East U.S. Coast: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_eco_THDV.gif

Gulf of Mexico: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_gmx_THDV.gif

I can guarantee there will be at least some long trackers in the MDR and Caribbean this year.

By “long-tracked hurricanes” wxman57 is likely alluding to storms that become (major) hurricanes in the MDR, like Ivan, Dean, or Irma. 2021 will likely lack those.*

*I am referring to (major) hurricanes in the MDR during the peak of the season, so I am excluding Elsa.

Looking back at 2017 which had long tracked majors in the MDR similar posts were being made like the above and then we saw what happened in September (in fact we were in a suppressed CCKW at the same time as now as well about to exit!). Remember it’s only July 26, not August 26 yet. I still think we will see at least one or two such storms this year especially considering the more southern ITCZ this year. Let’s see how things play out first instead of jumping to conclusions when things can change in an instant.

[Category5Kaiju]

The instability charts are not an indicator of whether or not the season will be active or impactful. Take last year, for example. Part of the reason that the western Caribbean and Gulf were so active was because the Tropical Atlantic was generally stable. Teddy became a hurricane there, but it didn't really get going until it moved out of the deep tropics. Laura could barely survive until it reached the Gulf. Gonzalo died as it reached the Caribbean. A stable Tropical Atlantic could mean activity shifts west to the Gulf and U.S. East Coast. The East U.S. Coast is the only area currently close to normal levels of instability, and that's the only region that has a slight chance of seeing a storm in the next 2 weeks.

I'm thinking that the currently stable Tropical Atlantic will remain stable through the season. No long-tracked hurricanes between the Caribbean and Africa, but development occurring farther west in the Caribbean, which threatens the Gulf Coast. A very wet July in Texas may signal an increased chance for a major impact on the Gulf Coast.

Let’s see how that prediction verifies come November 30, which I think will age like milk. If the tropical Atlantic is so stable, why did we have several MDR invests in June and a (fast-moving) July MDR/Caribbean hurricane? If the Atlantic were really that stable Elsa wouldn’t have formed and the invests wouldn’t have even existed most likely. I can guarantee there will be at least some long trackers in the MDR and Caribbean this year. Everyone suddenly is downcasting as usual just because of a suppressed CCKW moving through which should be gone soon, and then we’ll really see things lighten up in a few weeks.

Elsa was never really well-organized. It struggled the whole way. You should not classify me as "downcasting", when I'm predicting 19 named storms and a significantly enhanced risk of a major impact on the Gulf and East Coast this year. I'm just saying that systems will likely struggle until they get out of the Tropical Atlantic.

The Tropical Atlantic seems to have "stabilized" after the 2017 season. Storms have generally struggled there in 2018, 2019, and last year. I think it's due to dry, sinking air. Doesn't matter if you boil the water beneath a stable atmosphere, it can't generate hurricanes as easily.

I would have to wonder what 2005's MDR instability looked like given that was an extremely active season yet did not feature any powerful storms in the MDR

[SFLcane]

The instability charts are not an indicator of whether or not the season will be active or impactful. Take last year, for example. Part of the reason that the western Caribbean and Gulf were so active was because the Tropical Atlantic was generally stable. Teddy became a hurricane there, but it didn't really get going until it moved out of the deep tropics. Laura could barely survive until it reached the Gulf. Gonzalo died as it reached the Caribbean. A stable Tropical Atlantic could mean activity shifts west to the Gulf and U.S. East Coast. The East U.S. Coast is the only area currently close to normal levels of instability, and that's the only region that has a slight chance of seeing a storm in the next 2 weeks.

I'm thinking that the currently stable Tropical Atlantic will remain stable through the season. No long-tracked hurricanes between the Caribbean and Africa, but development occurring farther west in the Caribbean, which threatens the Gulf Coast. A very wet July in Texas may signal an increased chance for a major impact on the Gulf Coast.

Let’s see how that prediction verifies come November 30, which I think will age like milk. If the tropical Atlantic is so stable, why did we have several MDR invests in June and a (fast-moving) July MDR/Caribbean hurricane? If the Atlantic were really that stable Elsa wouldn’t have formed and the invests wouldn’t have even existed most likely. I can guarantee there will be at least some long trackers in the MDR and Caribbean this year. Everyone suddenly is downcasting as usual just because of a suppressed CCKW moving through which should be gone soon, and then we’ll really see things lighten up in a few weeks.

Elsa was never really well-organized. It struggled the whole way. You should not classify me as "downcasting", when I'm predicting 19 named storms and a significantly enhanced risk of a major impact on the Gulf and East Coast this year. I'm just saying that systems will likely struggle until they get out of the Tropical Atlantic.

The Tropical Atlantic seems to have "stabilized" after the 2017 season. Storms have generally struggled there in 2018, 2019, and last year. I think it's due to dry, sinking air. Doesn't matter if you boil the water beneath a stable atmosphere, it can't generate hurricanes as easily.

Is that’s so? Interesting wxman. Have you had the chance to take a look at the Cánsips, Euro, CFS 500mb setup for ASO. Florida got extremely lucky last season i wonder if that luck runs out this year. Overall like you I am expecting a high impact year in 2021.

[AnnularCane]

Looking back at 2017 which had long tracked majors in the MDR similar posts were being made like the above and then we saw what happened in September (in fact we were in a suppressed CCKW at the same time as now as well about to exit!). Remember it’s only July 26, not August 26 yet. I still think we will see at least one or two such storms this year especially considering the more southern ITCZ this year. Let’s see how things play out first instead of jumping to conclusions when things can change in an instant.

Isn't that what led to that infamous "can't buy a hurricane in September" quote?

[psyclone]

If anything a dry stable tropical Atlantic increases, rather than decreases risk of landfalls. I don't consider that a mitigating factor at all and it certainly isn't downcasting when viewed through a risk based context.

[AlphaToOmega]

You know the season is going to be bad when 19 storms is considered bearish.