2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#1741 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:02 am

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#1742 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:03 am

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#1743 Postby GCANE » Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:12 am

West CONUS Blocking High continues to be anchored in place.
Rossby Wave unable to create any ARWB.
Series of UL Lows in the MDR.
No foreseeable development in the near term.

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#1744 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:26 am

GCANE wrote:West CONUS Blocking High continues to be anchored in place.
Rossby Wave unable to create any ARWB.
Series of UL Lows in the MDR.
No foreseeable development in the near term.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/TY2G3Ls4/RW1.png [/url]


That’s all about to change. :wink:

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#1745 Postby aspen » Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:27 am

Say goodbye to SST handwringing!
https://cyclonicwx.com/sst/

The MDR is rapidly filling up with warm SST anomalies and is the closest to average it has been in months, while the Gulf has risen to +0.51C above average. The -AMO look of the last few weeks has been replaced with an almost evenly average to warmer-than-average look for the basin.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#1746 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Jul 27, 2021 10:13 am

aspen wrote:Say goodbye to SST handwringing!
https://cyclonicwx.com/sst/

The MDR is rapidly filling up with warm SST anomalies and is the closest to average it has been in months, while the Gulf has risen to +0.51C above average. The -AMO look of the last few weeks has been replaced with an almost evenly average to warmer-than-average look for the basin.


As expected. I certainly had my doubts earlier this year like in May or June about the talks of the Atlantic never being able to warm up by peak season and making the season inactive as a result.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#1747 Postby IsabelaWeather » Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:49 am

whats with the little swirl of vorticity just to the NE of Puerto Rico? Been watching it ll day, too bad its not headed for the island, would be cool to watch.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=pr&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#1748 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:43 pm

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#1749 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue Jul 27, 2021 2:44 pm

The suppressed MJO phase started around July 5. Suppressed and active MJO phases each last around 30-40 days. Therefore, activity should start ramping up come August 4-14.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#1750 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Jul 27, 2021 2:52 pm

Also keep in mind homegrown activity could ramp up slightly earlier than MDR/open Atlantic activity. Some recent examples of this occurring include 2017 and 2020 interestingly.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#1751 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Tue Jul 27, 2021 7:04 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
Blown Away wrote:We go through this every year on this board... The GFS will continue to show nothing out 16 days for about a week, maybe tease us with a phantom storm, Storm2k will be "Canceling Season" then @August 10th the GFS will show a Major Cane rolling across the Atlantic days 13-16 with a likely long range hit on Miami or New Orleans before it ultimately recurves OTS... Happens nearly every season... :D


When it comes down to the Atlantic, while this isn't like true 100% of the time, in quite a few cases, it also feels like when the GFS shows nothing something actually happens, and then when the GFS shows something nothing actually happens (particularly in August).


Right. Most of the time, the storms that scare me the most are the ones that struggle and the models want to kill, but they keep fighting the odds. Then, when they find favorable conditions, they explode into strong hurricanes. Also, I find it interesting how often models underestimate the strength of ridges. It seems like over the past few years, many storms that were originally predicted to go OTS, instead get blocked by a stronger ridge.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#1752 Postby aspen » Tue Jul 27, 2021 7:25 pm

If you take the mean between the OISST and CRW SSTs, the MDR is slightly warmer than average (+0.092C). Both maps show a clear warming trend and a more even distribution of +SST anomalies across the Gulf (which is over half a degree warmer than normal), Caribbean, MDR, and subtropics. It's safe to say that, unless we see a massive burst of SAL or some cooling trade winds, Atlantic SSTs will be in a good setup for peak season. Thankfully not as crazy looking as 2004, 2005, 2017, and 2020, but still able to support high levels of activity.

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#1753 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:35 pm

Holy cow now that some serious warming! :eek:

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#1754 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Jul 27, 2021 10:08 pm

To sum it all up:

Quite a few Atlantic hurricane trackers: "The MDR is cool! It is going to be very hard to get an above average season!"

Atlantic MDR: "HEY! I heard that. You insult me, I'm going to show you otherwise! :grr: "
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#1755 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 27, 2021 10:22 pm

Once the EPAC shuts down it should be all systems go for the Atlantic.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#1756 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Jul 27, 2021 10:54 pm

SFLcane wrote:Holy cow now that some serious warming! :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/C9cEvlh.png

Freezing out there isn't it?
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#1757 Postby AtlanticWind » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:04 am

With the MDR warming , I would be shocked if this is not an extremely active season. ( also pleased if the season busted , as much as I enjoy tracking I have seen the destruction they cause).

Everything is in place , Warming atlantic / La nina or close to one / Healthy wave train.

Its just a matter of when things pop. My guess is August 10th to 20th
Even if it is a later start , I think once things get going its going to be quite a burst for 8 to 10 weeks.

Just my amateur opinion. Hope I'm wrong.......
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#1758 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:07 am

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Holy cow now that some serious warming! :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/C9cEvlh.png

Freezing out there isn't it?

Personally I think the warming over the past four to five days is temporary. The long-term trend on the charts is negligible. One must look at the moving average for the entire period in question rather than short-term trends. Wait another week and a half and the warming will reverse, that is, revert to the long-term moving average. So far every short-term warming trend has reversed itself after a while. I doubt that this latest trend will be different from the rest, but we shall see. The Canary Current remains cool and all the TC activity in the CPAC is atypical of a -PMM/-ENSO combination.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#1759 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:25 am

Shell Mound wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Holy cow now that some serious warming! :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/C9cEvlh.png

Freezing out there isn't it?

Personally I think the warming over the past four to five days is temporary. The long-term trend on the charts is negligible. One must look at the moving average for the entire period in question rather than short-term trends. Wait another week and a half and the warming will reverse, that is, revert to the long-term moving average. So far every short-term warming trend has reversed itself after a while. I doubt that this latest trend will be different from the rest, but we shall see. The Canary Current remains cool and all the TC activity in the CPAC is atypical of a -PMM/-ENSO combination.

Literally every model has warming until peak season. I doubt we will see any more serious cooling. This is not just a 15 day trend either. Look at posts in this thread in June, and compare those images to today......
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#1760 Postby AtlanticWind » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:27 am

Shell Mound wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Holy cow now that some serious warming! :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/C9cEvlh.png

Freezing out there isn't it?

Personally I think the warming over the past four to five days is temporary. The long-term trend on the charts is negligible. One must look at the moving average for the entire period in question rather than short-term trends. Wait another week and a half and the warming will reverse, that is, revert to the long-term moving average. So far every short-term warming trend has reversed itself after a while. I doubt that this latest trend will be different from the rest, but we shall see. The Canary Current remains cool and all the TC activity in the CPAC is atypical of a -PMM/-ENSO combination.

I have not followed the CPAC closely but I didnt think anything was going on there.
As for the warming I think this was expected and maybe a little late, but my bet is we will have above average temps
in the MDR thru the heart of the season.
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