2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[tolakram]

Holy cow now that some serious warming!

https://i.imgur.com/C9cEvlh.png

Freezing out there isn't it?

Personally I think the warming over the past four to five days is temporary. The long-term trend on the charts is negligible. One must look at the moving average for the entire period in question rather than short-term trends. Wait another week and a half and the warming will reverse, that is, revert to the long-term moving average. So far every short-term warming trend has reversed itself after a while. I doubt that this latest trend will be different from the rest, but we shall see. The Canary Current remains cool and all the TC activity in the CPAC is atypical of a -PMM/-ENSO combination.

Can you clarify TC activity in the CPAC?

[SFLcane]

Once the EPAC shuts down it should be all systems go for the Atlantic.

Just a question of if/when it does shut down. GFS is cranking them out for weeks it looks like.

[cycloneye]

It's comming. Let's have patience.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1420345980432564227

[AlphaToOmega]

The reason why July has been so quiet is a combination of an unfavorable MJO and SAL. Come August, the MJO will become more favorable, and the SAL will subside.

[aspen]

Once the EPAC shuts down it should be all systems go for the Atlantic.

Just a question of if/when it does shut down. GFS is cranking them out for weeks it looks like.

Might be MJO and long-range bias still. I highly doubt those two majors verify, because that’s how Guillermo and the 0/40 AOI started out as.

[Category5Kaiju]

This is quite telling imho that the warming we are seeing now isn’t some short lived event, it is warming as expected and warming at the right time.

[Shell Mound]

Freezing out there isn't it?

Personally I think the warming over the past four to five days is temporary. The long-term trend on the charts is negligible. One must look at the moving average for the entire period in question rather than short-term trends. Wait another week and a half and the warming will reverse, that is, revert to the long-term moving average. So far every short-term warming trend has reversed itself after a while. I doubt that this latest trend will be different from the rest, but we shall see. The Canary Current remains cool and all the TC activity in the CPAC is atypical of a -PMM/-ENSO combination.

Can you clarify TC activity in the CPAC?

Crazy how past 120W is the sweet spot so far. That's literally something you do not see in non +ENSO/+PDO/+PMM years.

Source

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1420077643035258883



 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1420078881697054725



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1420080934313938944



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1420087940823359488



 https://twitter.com/HurricaneAddict/status/1420094264483139592

[aspen]

Personally I think the warming over the past four to five days is temporary. The long-term trend on the charts is negligible. One must look at the moving average for the entire period in question rather than short-term trends. Wait another week and a half and the warming will reverse, that is, revert to the long-term moving average. So far every short-term warming trend has reversed itself after a while. I doubt that this latest trend will be different from the rest, but we shall see. The Canary Current remains cool and all the TC activity in the CPAC is atypical of a -PMM/-ENSO combination.

Can you clarify TC activity in the CPAC?

Crazy how past 120W is the sweet spot so far. That's literally something you do not see in non +ENSO/+PDO/+PMM years.

Source

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1420077643035258883
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1420078881697054725
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1420080934313938944
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1420087940823359488
https://twitter.com/HurricaneAddict/status/1420094264483139592

If the GFS’ hints of a TC attempting to form east of 50W between August 5-10th verify, that TUTT won’t be an issue, assuming it ends up in that position by that time frame.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1420381532104138754




 https://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1420382163065835520




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1420382573679742982

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1420381532104138754

Yes, reduced trades and continued warming of the main development region. Ugly combo with strong VP over Africa.

[toad strangler]

Oh snap, Hazelton mentioned 2013

[Category5Kaiju]

Oh snap, Hazelton mentioned 2013

I mean, who doesn't?

[cheezyWXguy]

I seem to remember that the gfs/gefs has a tendency to hold onto the epac cell for too long around this time, and that it did this last year. I’m siding with the eps between the two on this matter based on that bias.

[SFLcane]

Oh snap, Hazelton mentioned 2013

Being sarcastic there. This is def not 2013 my friend

[cycloneye]

Mr Andy is very active today.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1420391100599214082

[aspen]

Looks like the CRW SST graphs on cyclonicwx have been corrected. It’s now saying that the MDR is +0.25C warmer than average, which matches up a lot more with the CRW map than the +0.092C estimate from last night. The entire graph seems to have been moved up.

[AnnularCane]

Oh snap, Hazelton mentioned 2013

Season cancel! (j/k)

[Stormybajan]

I seem to remember that the gfs/gefs has a tendency to hold onto the epac cell for too long around this time, and that it did this last year. I’m siding with the eps between the two on this matter based on that bias.

I'm also with you there, I think the GFS is too slow in its progression of the MJO and rising phase over Africa, I dont think we will have to wait until the end of August for that. August 13th the latest. We're just over 2 weeks away from the Atlantic dashing off..right now its getting the blocks ready before the huge sprint

[SFLcane]

Mr Andy is very active today.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1420391100599214082

With 2-3 weeks to go the Mdr with be fine. Let’s check again August 20-25

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1420387810884861955