2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[captainbarbossa19]

I suspect that conditions might be a whole lot more favorable than the GFS is showing around August 10th. It might take another 10 days or so, but the models often have a hard time dealing with a big change in the overall pattern.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS shows a little bit more development from August 5-7.

[GCANE]

Pretty much all the globals have genesis around 10N 25W Aug 1 to 3.
They don't really develop it at this point.
However, need to see if this develops into a pouch.
Looks like the forecast shows the African Easterly Jet will diverge around 50W.
The West CONUS Blocking High may break down a bit from what I am see in the models.
Depends a lot on how much rain they may get.
If it does, an Anticyclonic Rossby Wave Break may develop somewhere along the path of the wave.

[toad strangler]

06z GFS shows a little bit more development from August 6-8.

https://i.imgur.com/F4AlKGI.gif

0z showed next to nothing.
6z brings the energy, extremely weak, all the way to just N of the DR

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF on August 7.

[captainbarbossa19]

12z ECMWF on August 7.

https://i.imgur.com/AwfX7gc.png

The Joker from The Dark Knight:

"And here we go."

[toad strangler]

12z GFS nada

[aspen]

12z GFS nada

It’s 10 days out so I anticipate a lot of flip-flopping from the models until it’s resolved whether this has a chance, or is just a phantom. If the GFS is going to be anything like it was last year, then it’ll eventually be quite bullish with this in the long range, before dropping it in the mid range.

[SFLcane]

12z GFS nada

My friend, have some patience only a matter of time before the gfs show the first cat 4-5 heading for SFL lol. I was actually thinking if creating a poll or thread for it as we wait for activity to pick up. In all seriousness ramp you should commence around Aug 15-20 or bit after.

[toad strangler]

12z GFS nada

My friend, have some patience only a matter of time before the gfs show the first cat 4-5 heading for SFL lol. I was actually thinking if creating a poll or thread for it as we wait for activity to pick up. In all seriousness ramp you should commence around Aug 15-20 or bit after.

Very patient! Just mentioning it
I'm fully in the camp of a mid August switch flip

[somethingfunny]

12z GFS nada

My friend, have some patience only a matter of time before the gfs show the first cat 4-5 heading for SFL lol. I was actually thinking if creating a poll or thread for it as we wait for activity to pick up. In all seriousness ramp you should commence around Aug 15-20 or bit after.

I'll take August 4 as the first time one of the models shows a fantasyland major heading for Florida

[cycloneye]

GFS is more bullish at 18z.

[aspen]

The CMC should come on board soon, now that development is within the 10-day time frame. Although I have a feeling this could be the result of the strong WPac monsoon in that region.

[Shell Mound]

GFS is more bullish at 18z.

https://i.imgur.com/D4WnroH.gif

In a week I predict that the GFS will end up busting in regard to TCG. The C/EPAC look to be the main focus of development. We shall see.

[abajan]

GFS is more bullish at 18z.

https://i.imgur.com/D4WnroH.gif

And it's still there on the 6z run.
For now, it appears it will miss the Antilles, and weaken as it does so.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS is more bullish at 18z.

https://i.imgur.com/D4WnroH.gif

And it's still there on the 6z run.
For now, it appears it will miss the Antilles, and weaken as it does so.

https://i.imgur.com/j4G4OLh.gif

While it's been consistent run-to-run, It's possible that it may be convective feedback from the monsoon trough that's suppose to cross in that region by that timeframe.

[aspen]

GFS is more bullish at 18z.

https://i.imgur.com/D4WnroH.gif

In a week I predict that the GFS will end up busting in regard to TCG. The C/EPAC look to be the main focus of development. We shall see.

I doubt it’ll be for long. Those long-range EPac storms could bust due to MJO bias, similar to how this Atlantic storm could bust due to monsoon feedback bias.

[toad strangler]

The switch flips tend to happen faster than overnight. Don't lose sight of that when long range models are spitting out TC's like tic tacs in the EPAC with the anticipated background state / fav MJO. One minute there will be unfavorable conditions and the next minute very favorable. Go to a nearest old school wall switch and flip it from off to on and that's how quick it happens lol

[Category5Kaiju]

The switch flips tend to happen faster than overnight. Don't lose sight of that when long range models are spitting out TC's like tic tacs in the EPAC with the anticipated background state / fav MJO. One minute there will be unfavorable conditions and the next minute very favorable. Go to a nearest old school wall switch and flip it from off to on and that's how quick it happens lol.

From my understanding by now had I relied solely on the GFS for EPAC development we should have seen at least 6 or so NSs (with half of them being hurricanes)) form in July.

[SFLcane]

GFS is more bullish at 18z.

https://i.imgur.com/D4WnroH.gif

And it's still there on the 6z run.
For now, it appears it will miss the Antilles, and weaken as it does so.

https://i.imgur.com/j4G4OLh.gif

No concern for the islands there is a giant TUTT protecting the CONUS.