2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[cycloneye]

Something is not right with what JMA has because with cool neutral or weak la niña in the Pacifico is physically imposible that a wall of shear is in place in Caribbean. That is my simple take.

[aspen]

All of the indicators and model outputs for Atlantic activity so far:

+Activity:
—A developing La Niña paired with a strong Atlantic Niño
—Evenly warmer-than-average SSTs throughout the Caribbean, Gulf, MDR, and subtropics
—Elsa became a rare western MDR July hurricane, and the only other years with one were all hyperactive
—A much lower ITCZ that will allow waves to exit over warmer waters compared to last year
—Yet another year with a crazy powerful WAM, as well as the WPac monsoon extending all the way into the MDR
—A record wet Africa, even surpassing last year
—A seemingly favorable background state when there isn’t a giant suppressive MJO, as indicated by early season activity
—A favorable VP setup for ASO and potentially going into November, so there is the possibility of enhanced late season activity
—The Euro is actually forecasting above-normal ACE, rare for such a bearish model

-Activity:
—That suppressive MJO which will take time for the Atlantic to recover from. Even if things become super favorable from mid-August all through September, this gap in activity will lower seasonal numbers a bit
—A dry MDR according to earlier precipitation models (although they aren’t the best indicators)
—The positive MJO possibly not being positive for the Atlantic at all, and perhaps favoring the EPac
—This small -VP cell in the EPac that’ll probably result in competition between the basins
—The CFS and JMA forecasting above-normal shear for most of the tropical Atlantic in August with reduced shear in the EPac despite a -ENSO
—MDR temps are nowhere near 2005/2017/2020, and it’s possible the WPac monsoon will lead to more giant struggling waves

[Category5Kaiju]

I have never seen a season with so many mixed signals ever since I began tracking.

[NDG]

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the JMA after busting a month ago on its July forecast. Could it be right? Yes it can but I would not doubt this will be another busy late season Sept-Nov with La Nina redeveloping again.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1410612909609304064

[AlphaToOmega]

The only reason the Atlantic is not producing anything at the moment is the MJO. It will take a week or two, but by then the Atlantic will be ripe for development. The July monthly CanSIPS and JMA models suggest an ASO pattern conducive enough for a hyperactive season. It is simply wishful thinking to believe that the Atlantic can be suppressed for two months in a +AMO, +TNA, -ENSO, and -PDO season and nothing more.

[cycloneye]

This for sure will make a few peeps happy. GEFS now is with ECMWF on having the MJO over Africa that will cause things to turn favorable.



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... MQStnxPf5c

[Category5Kaiju]

The key here imho (and I’m doing a bit of Occam’s razor here) is that what’s for sure is that we are very likely to enter negative ENSO territory by the end of this year. There’s a reason why professional forecasters really look at the ENSO phase to determine how active the Atlantic can get, ENSO is such a driving force for the Atlantic that unless you get some freak year like 2013, you can really tell how favorable or unfavorable (particularly with respect to overall shear) the basin could be during ASO with decent accuracy.

[AlphaToOmega]

This for sure will make a few peeps happy. GEFS now is with ECMWF on having the MJO over Africa that will cause things to turn favorable.

https://i.imgur.com/XrciA9s.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... MQStnxPf5c

Replace "happy" with "concerned" for people in the Antilles and Central America
This could potentially mean a Caribbean cruiser in August a là Dean (2007).
What is clear is that the models keep flip-flopping on the signals. I am seriously starting to doubt the reliability of these climate models. Maybe they are being fed incorrect data. Maybe there are glitches in these models. Maybe the Atlantic Niño is throwing them off. Who knows?

[cycloneye]

Papin has a interesting twist.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1420762450811572226

[cycloneye]

This for sure will make a few peeps happy. GEFS now is with ECMWF on having the MJO over Africa that will cause things to turn favorable.

https://i.imgur.com/XrciA9s.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... MQStnxPf5c

Replace "happy" with "concerned" for people in the Antilles and Central America
This could potentially mean a Caribbean cruiser in August a là Dean (2007).
What is clear is that the models keep flip-flopping on the signals. I am seriously starting to doubt the reliability of these climate models. Maybe they are being fed incorrect data. Maybe there are glitches in these models. Maybe the Atlantic Niño is throwing them off. Who knows?

Of course I dont say happy that storms or hurricanes strike a place. I only say that word for folks that want to see the Atlantic active as soon as posible.

[SFLcane]

This for sure will make a few peeps happy. GEFS now is with ECMWF on having the MJO over Africa that will cause things to turn favorable.

https://i.imgur.com/XrciA9s.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... MQStnxPf5c

Hey Luis, Yea but the shear is still bad for some reason on GEFS.

[Category5Kaiju]

Btw I am definitely in no way confident about this and another person's insight would be greatly appreciated; for these models, is there like a detectable reason on why they think shear will be above average in the Atlantic? Because from my understanding -ENSO and weak La Ninas are arguably the most favorable configurations for the Atlantic primarily due to their ability to reduce shear in the Atlantic.

[MarioProtVI]

This pattern is virtually identical to last year’s and also contributed to an underwhelming season in the MDR, as most AEWs were too broad and disorganised for most of their trek westward across the MDR, prior to reaching the Lesser Antilles. Currently the C/EPAC look to generate at least two major hurricanes within the next few weeks, along with two or more additional systems. As long as the C/EPAC continue to behave as though we were in +PMM/+PDO/+ENSO the active African monsoon could actually prevent a more active Atlantic season, as systems that would initially struggle to consolidate would then encounter strong VWS over the Caribbean, thanks to the active C/EPAC convection. Sprawling waves that take time to consolidate over the MDR would end up facing shear over the western part of the Atlantic basin. So I disagree with people who say that an active MDR would be better for the islands and other land-masses, given that the MDR tends to produce the majority of upper-end MH landfalls. Currently I am still rather bearish about the prospects of this season, given the fact that the CFSv2 seems to be handling the amplitude and progression of the MJO better than the EPS, while the Atlantic still retains a persistently residual -AMM/-AMO (look at the coolish Canary Current and its refusal to warm up).

A very telling comparison: the WPAC-style monsoonal trough in the Atlantic does practically nothing, while the EPAC monsoon generates multiple hurricanes:

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1420509220366168072
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1420458814395060226
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1420509430450475008

All in all, the indicators suggest that the rising cell over the C/EPAC is going to be more persistent and stronger than many people might expect.

Not buying into the GFS’s EPac major spam. ... The monsoon trough setup could easily fix itself by late August and still contribute to a decent MDR season. Finally, the -AMO look is complete crap...

The latest ECMWF has shifted toward the GFS and now shows multiple strong hurricanes over the C/EPAC during the next few weeks. As far as the African monsoonal trough is concerned, the -VP over the IO during ASO should continue to contribute to highly amplified AEWs. These would tend to take their time to consolidate over the MDR, so if a secondary -VP cell is also present over the C/EPAC, it would likely shear any AEW that attempts to develop closer to the Caribbean and/or the islands. Regarding the -AMO, I was referring to the fact that the Canary Current remains cool, despite recent warming of the MDR. One would need to see significant warming over key areas such as the Canaries to be relatively certain that the MDR will continue to warm over time.

The canary current isn’t actually that cool at all. CDAS might be showing that because it’s biased towards cooling with SAL outbreaks making it look cooler then it actually is, thus I would use a different data set such as OISST or Coral Reef

[AutoPenalti]

I'm not entirely confident in that forecast considering the state we are in. An -ENSO would certainly favor development in the Atlantic.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1420755037664415746




By the way, heres a pretty cool discussion that reinforces the idea that a 2013-epic fail repeat is unlikely this year: it's more than just one variable at play here.

[AlphaToOmega]

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1420755037664415746

By the way, heres a pretty cool discussion that reinforces the idea that a 2013-epic fail repeat is unlikely this year: it's more than just one variable at play here.

Below-average shear in the MDR and the Gulf of Mexico

[Stormybajan]

Oh! Was not expecting this so now the JMA is shearing the Atlantic for August. Hate to say it but it’s good news we could be looking at a rather hostile Atlantic if the CFS and JMA are correct.

I just don’t know anymore but as always be prepared

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1420753479908343808

The way I see it, hyperactivity for the season should be ruled out, but I am still 100% confident at the end of the season we would be looking back at another above average season with atleast one impactful major hurricane . Shear might be the problem in one area, but it wont be there forever, it wont engulf the entire Atlantic with unfavourable conditions, we're heading towards ENSO- cool neutral not an El Nino. Unless August is dead I wouldnt let my guard down as yet

[AlphaToOmega]

Oh! Was not expecting this so now the JMA is shearing the Atlantic for August. Hate to say it but it’s good news we could be looking at a rather hostile Atlantic if the CFS and JMA are correct.

I just don’t know anymore but as always be prepared

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1420753479908343808

The way I see it, hyperactivity for the season should be ruled out, but I am still 100% confident at the end of the season we would be looking back at another above average season with atleast one impactful major hurricane . Shear might be the problem in one area, but it wont be there forever, it wont engulf the entire Atlantic with unfavourable conditions, we're heading towards ENSO- cool neutral not an El Nino. Unless August is dead I wouldnt let my guard down as yet

The shear map shows below-average shear in the MDR and the GoM. Even if the above-average Caribbean shear verifies, the season could still end up with > 159 ACE, the threshold for hyperactivity.

[toad strangler]

This for sure will make a few peeps happy. GEFS now is with ECMWF on having the MJO over Africa that will cause things to turn favorable.

https://i.imgur.com/XrciA9s.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... MQStnxPf5c

Replace "happy" with "concerned" for people in the Antilles and Central America
This could potentially mean a Caribbean cruiser in August a là Dean (2007).
What is clear is that the models keep flip-flopping on the signals. I am seriously starting to doubt the reliability of these climate models. Maybe they are being fed incorrect data. Maybe there are glitches in these models. Maybe the Atlantic Niño is throwing them off. Who knows?

Of course I dont say happy that storms or hurricanes strike a place. I only say that word for folks that want to see the Atlantic active as soon as posible.

Nobody can alter where these storms go.

[Category5Kaiju]

The question of whether we’ll see above average or hyperactivity imho is still a bit unclear as I simply am not quite sure how well these shear forecasts will verify, and I am simply going to wait and watch as we have seen crazy things happen in the tropics before