2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[captainbarbossa19]

GFS is more bullish at 18z.

https://i.imgur.com/D4WnroH.gif

And it's still there on the 6z run.
For now, it appears it will miss the Antilles, and weaken as it does so.

https://i.imgur.com/j4G4OLh.gif

No concern for the islands there is a giant TUTT protecting the CONUS.

Somehow, I feel like things are going to be totally different on or after August 20th.

[beoumont]

My friend, have some patience only a matter of time before the gfs show the first cat 4-5 heading for SFL lol. I was actually thinking if creating a poll or thread for it as we wait for activity to pick up. In all seriousness ramp you should commence around Aug 15-20 or bit after.

Might have to wait 'till the next full moon: August 22.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro.

[Stormybajan]

12z Euro.

https://i.imgur.com/H6yWa4s.gif

No development but two strong tropical waves...I like it its hot out here the windwards could use the rain

[toad strangler]

Two TW's in Euro long range? Uh Oh …..

[Category5Kaiju]

Two TW's in Euro long range? Uh Oh …..

All Hail King Euro!!!

[captainbarbossa19]

12z Euro.

https://i.imgur.com/H6yWa4s.gif

No development but two strong tropical waves...I like it its hot out here the windwards could use the rain

I will not be surprised if the models drop development about five days before something forms and then they form anyway.

[Category5Kaiju]

12z Euro.

https://i.imgur.com/H6yWa4s.gif

No development but two strong tropical waves...I like it its hot out here the windwards could use the rain

I will not be surprised if the models drop development about five days before something forms and then they form anyway.

GFS is notorious for this. It’s basically like the letter V, first it is super excited, then as time gets closer it completely drops formation, and then once time is very close the GFS will show the system again.

[Category5Kaiju]

No development but two strong tropical waves...I like it its hot out here the windwards could use the rain

I will not be surprised if the models drop development about five days before something forms and then they form anyway.

GFS is notorious for this. It’s basically like the letter V, first it is super excited, then as time gets closer it completely drops formation, and then once time is very close the GFS will show the system again.

Edit: 18z GFS so far shows the system again in the MDR by the August 8/9 timeframe

[aspen]

I will not be surprised if the models drop development about five days before something forms and then they form anyway.

GFS is notorious for this. It’s basically like the letter V, first it is super excited, then as time gets closer it completely drops formation, and then once time is very close the GFS will show the system again.

Edit: 18z GFS so far shows the system again in the MDR by the August 8/9 timeframe

The GFS has only showed this system in the 06z and 18z runs; it always disappears in the 00z and 12z runs.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS has the strongest run yet.

[AtlanticWind]

18z GFS has the strongest run yet.

https://i.imgur.com/HcD0iSM.gif

Could be the first signal of the begining of the active phase of the season.

[toad strangler]

Happy Hour 18z GFS gonna Happy Hour

[SFLcane]

Happy Hour 18z GFS gonna Happy Hour

Sorta reminds me of an A storm glad it’s fantasy land. You can see the dual outflow channels and it gets even better surrounded by 9 knots of shear with BIG ridge overhead. If tc tracks anything like this during ASO we in trouble.

[Category5Kaiju]

Happy Hour 18z GFS gonna Happy Hour

Sorta reminds me of an A storm glad it’s fantasy land. You can see the dual outflow channels and it gets even better surrounded by 9 knots of shear with BIG ridge overhead. If tc tracks anything like this we in trouble.

https://i.postimg.cc/jqQn1SQD/69-D27-C29-C824-45-C1-9-FE6-31-DF04-A6-A633.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/02kK11cc/5-F95-EBD2-B578-41-C9-9-D8-B-548-EB4-BD14-DB.jpg

Or a D storm...didn't hit Florida, but it sure became a huge scare

[abajan]

18z GFS has the strongest run yet.

https://i.imgur.com/HcD0iSM.gif

Yep. It weakens as it passes north of the Antilles, then strengthens like crazy as it approaches the Bahamas.

[SFLcane]

Things could pick up soon.. we shall see

[Shell Mound]

Things could pick up soon.. we shall see

https://i.postimg.cc/V65dBdXT/54-D13-AB3-1338-4919-ADC3-E915965-FFC4-E.jpg

The EPAC cell will shut down anything that begins to consolidate closer to the islands and/or the Caribbean. Waves over the MDR will remain broad, too.

[Blown Away]

Things could pick up soon.. we shall see

https://i.postimg.cc/V65dBdXT/54-D13-AB3-1338-4919-ADC3-E915965-FFC4-E.jpg

The EPAC cell will shut down anything that begins to consolidate closer to the islands and/or the Caribbean. Waves over the MDR will remain broad, too.

GFS continues to show a wave/low moving off the Africa and moving the wave energy WNW across the Atlantic, near the NE Caribbean, and over SFL. Something to watch.

[Shell Mound]

GFS is notorious for this. It’s basically like the letter V, first it is super excited, then as time gets closer it completely drops formation, and then once time is very close the GFS will show the system again.

Edit: 18z GFS so far shows the system again in the MDR by the August 8/9 timeframe

The GFS has only showed this system in the 06z and 18z runs; it always disappears in the 00z and 12z runs.

As expected, the latest 06Z run finally dropped it and no longer shows a consolidated TC at any point. System cancelled.