CPAC: JIMENA - Remnants

[Kingarabian]

GFS shows the emergence of a third disturbance pulling 90E ever so slightly away which allows 99E to develop and become a separate named system.

[Kingarabian]

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS makes this a robust hurricane near 140W with interaction with 99E but not enough for it to actually affect 90E's intensity.

[Kingarabian]

Down to 1.5/1.5:

TXPZ28 KNES 292348
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99E)

B. 29/2330Z

C. 13.7N

D. 124.4W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES MORE THAN 1.25 DEGREES FROM
LARGE COLD CONVECTION YIELDS A DT OF 1.5 BASED ON THE SHEAR PATTERN. MET
AND PT AGREE AND ARE EQUAL TO 1.5. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with an
area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Upper-level winds
are expected to become more conducive for development during the
next couple of days, and a tropical depression is expected to form
over the weekend while the system moves generally westward at 5 to
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Kingarabian]

00z HWRF/HMON significantly weaker with this system.

00z Euro also weaker:


But it's not getting ripped apart by shear and could be the models low intensity bias with systems in this region. Also in terms of track, 90E is right behind once it nears Hawaii.

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms have changed little overnight in
association with an area of low pressure located about 1300 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for
development during the next day or two, and a tropical depression is
expected to form over the weekend while the system moves generally
westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ28 KNES 301212
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99E)

B. 30/1130Z

C. 13.3N

D. 125.7W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SPIRAL, LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER BENEATH
A VERY SMALL COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5 USING THE SHEAR
PATTERN. PT AGREES WHILE MET IS 2.0 BASED ON SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER
LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS deepens this once this moves away from 90E.

[cycloneye]

Another area of low pressure is located about 1300 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The
associated showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of
organization, but are still mostly confined to the southeast of the
center. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for
development during the next day or so, and a tropical depression is
expected to form over the weekend while the system moves generally
westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

I believe this is deserving of an upgrade.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ28 KNES 301804
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99E)

B. 30/1730Z

C. 12.9N

D. 125.9W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...3/10 BROKEN BANDING W OF CENTER SUGGESTS SHEAR MAY BE
LESSENING AND RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT ARE 1.5. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992021 07/30/21 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 39 45 49 56 63 69 73 73 71 68 64 61 59
V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 39 45 49 56 63 69 73 73 71 68 64 61 59
V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 34 36 39 44 48 51 53 54 54 51 47 44
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 14 13 11 12 13 18 13 19 13 14 9 3 5 5 7 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -1 -3 -6 -4 -1 -5 -1 -6 -5 -3 0 4 7 7
SHEAR DIR 84 109 120 99 73 66 54 71 53 77 69 64 340 342 339 314 317
SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.8
POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 139 138 137 137 138 140 142 141 142 134 131 130 131 133 131
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.1 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4
700-500 MB RH 66 69 71 69 69 69 65 64 61 60 56 53 52 52 48 49 45
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 14 16 18 20 20 20 18 17 17 17
850 MB ENV VOR 4 16 29 29 26 30 47 68 60 69 66 66 61 62 49 53 49
200 MB DIV 34 50 48 15 13 39 63 92 93 83 53 26 7 -6 -9 -26 -5
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -4 -3 -2 -5 -1 -4 -3
LAND (KM) 1965 2027 2089 2127 2166 2252 2349 2431 2463 2255 2053 1860 1668 1483 1305 1138 986
LAT (DEG N) 12.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 125.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 5 7 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9
HEAT CONTENT 5 6 7 7 7 6 6 8 12 7 9 4 2 2 11 7 6

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 20. 23. 25. 27. 27. 27. 27. 28. 29.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. 8. 6. 5.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 7. 10. 12. 11. 9. 7. 6. 4. 4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 15. 19. 26. 33. 39. 43. 43. 41. 38. 34. 31. 29.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.4 125.6

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992021 INVEST 07/30/21 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 4.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 2.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.47 2.7
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 2.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -3.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 0.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 15.5% 13.1% 11.3% 0.0% 12.0% 11.1% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.3% 19.5% 6.7% 3.5% 1.7% 2.8% 5.6% 9.6%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.1% 11.8% 6.6% 4.9% 0.6% 5.0% 5.6% 3.2%
DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992021 INVEST 07/30/21 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF makes this is a borderline hurricane near 140-148W after 90E gets out of the way.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro keeps this intact and south of the Big Island:


12z GFS again shows this interacting with 90E which results in a track north of the Islands:

[Kingarabian]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/9611/cEF4DR.gif

I believe this is deserving of an upgrade.

I think this and 90E are both TC's now. They have pulsated deep convection near the center for the past 48 hours with no problems despite the shear.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
200 PM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021

An area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring during the
past several days over the eastern Pacific, has developed a
well-defined surface center, as indicated in a recent
scatterometer overpass, and has acquired sufficient organized
convection to be classified as a 25-kt tropical depression. The
northwesterly shear which has been curtailing genesis over the past
couple of days has diminished just enough to allow the system to
become better organized, particularly, in the east and south
portions of the cyclone.

The depression is embedded in weak easterly steering currents
created by a deep-layer cut-off low and associated trough situated
along 125W. As a result, the depression is temporarily drifting
west-southwestward, or 255/4 kt. Large-scale models indicate that
the cut-off feature will lift northward during the next 24-36 hours
allowing a mid-tropospheric ridge to build in over the eastern
Pacific. Accordingly, the cyclone should track generally westward
at an increased forward speed beyond mid period. The official
forecast follows suit and is based on a blend of the top forecast
track performers, HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and the
multi-model consensus TVCN.

Now that the shear is weakening and the upper tropospheric winds are
predicted to become more favorable, (easterly, and little more
diffluent) steady strengthening is expected while the cyclone
traverses deep, warm oceanic temperatures. The NHC intensity
forecast is near the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and
the IVCN intensity aid and is below the Decay-SHIPS
statistical-dynamical guidance beyond the 72-hour period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 12.3N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 12.0N 126.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 11.7N 126.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 11.7N 127.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 11.8N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 12.1N 131.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 12.5N 132.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 13.2N 135.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 13.9N 138.9W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[Kingarabian]

Personally will be paying close attention to this one since I'm in Hawaii and models bring it within our vicinity. The likely track is for this to go south of Hawaii until proven otherwise.