2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

It’s all epac it seems next few weeks. Ensembles show a ton of development there.

[captainbarbossa19]

Edit: 18z GFS so far shows the system again in the MDR by the August 8/9 timeframe

The GFS has only showed this system in the 06z and 18z runs; it always disappears in the 00z and 12z runs.

As expected, the latest 06Z run finally dropped it and no longer shows a consolidated TC at any point. System cancelled.

Haha. One run and it's gone. Good ole GFS. (Captain Barbossa's voice) "However, ye should keep yer eye out for what Calypso might stir upon the seas!"

[aspen]

It’s all epac it seems next few weeks. Ensembles show a ton of development there.

I doubt any more than a single storm becomes something significant or a major. We have three invests out there already, and maybe one or two of them have the chance to become a Cat 1, but I don’t see an intensity anywhere close to Felicia being on the table.

[SFLcane]

It’s all epac it seems next few weeks. Ensembles show a ton of development there.

I doubt any more than a single storm becomes something significant or a major. We have three invests out there already, and maybe one or two of them have the chance to become a Cat 1, but I don’t see an intensity anywhere close to Felicia being on the table.

[aspen]

It’s all epac it seems next few weeks. Ensembles show a ton of development there.

I doubt any more than a single storm becomes something significant or a major. We have three invests out there already, and maybe one or two of them have the chance to become a Cat 1, but I don’t see an intensity anywhere close to Felicia being on the table.

https://i.postimg.cc/28dJsLd2/5-D6-D47-F3-C6-AC-483-A-A68-F-EDE013-CC8-ADE.png

Yep, lots of potential development. That doesn’t mean they’ll be spared from the problems many of the other storms have faced due to this being a -ENSO year.

[Category5Kaiju]

Current wind shear map for the EPAC:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=eastpac&sat=wg9&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

Definitely does not look like we are going to see robust major hurricane blitz with this kind of setup alone. We may get some quantity, but at least for now not quite sure about quality per se.

[SFLcane]

I doubt any more than a single storm becomes something significant or a major. We have three invests out there already, and maybe one or two of them have the chance to become a Cat 1, but I don’t see an intensity anywhere close to Felicia being on the table.

https://i.postimg.cc/28dJsLd2/5-D6-D47-F3-C6-AC-483-A-A68-F-EDE013-CC8-ADE.png

Yep, lots of potential development. That doesn’t mean they’ll be spared from the problems many of the other storms have faced due to this being a -ENSO year.

Development there means shear and sinking air across the Atlantic. Until It quites down next 10-15 days not expecting much on the Atl side.

[abajan]

Euro's coming alive:

[Woofde]

Euro's coming alive:

Considering how fickle the Euro has been in making systems, this could be a big sign that something may develop.

Sent from my SM-G988U1 using Tapatalk

[AtlanticWind]

Anticipation, anticipation
Is makin' me late
Is keepin' me waitin'


couldnt help but think of this song reading this thread.

[Nimbus]

Euro's coming alive:

https://i.imgur.com/vhPvbxJ.gif

https://i.imgur.com/saFZjYi.gif

OK I'll ask, whats with the 850 mb pressure anomaly over Pico Duarte?
I know the hikers have trouble with the public GPS altitude measurements.

[SFLcane]

Euro sniffing potentially. Disturbance of the Carolinas is a different tc.

[abajan]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/gGyUYiDQQHU[/youtube]

[CourierPR]

So the switch will flip soon. That was a great synopsis. Thank you for posting Abajan.

[AxaltaRacing24]

So the switch will flip soon. That was a great synopsis. Thank you for posting Abajan.

If seasons like 2019 can get busy after 8/20, this one will too. Look at the more favorable conditions coming in 2-3 weeks and compare that to current conditions. It is easy to see why July was dead, and it is also very easy to see why things are about to ramp up.

[jlauderdal]

season cancel worries are a given this time of the year...relax, the Atlantic always delivers, 3rd week of august and beyond this year, test your generators now and get them fixed if needed

[captainbarbossa19]

Euro sniffing potentially. Disturbance of the Carolinas is a different tc.



https://i.postimg.cc/YCGZ8NDd/7-C9-C46-E1-7-C88-477-A-9267-3-AD9-BE47-A73-C.jpg

Interesting. The area the Euro is hinting at genesis is the same region that many nasty storms have formed including Laura and Irma. The highlighted area may also suggest that if anything does form in that region, it will track west. I hope Mark Sudduth is wrong about this year being similar to 2017.

[Hammy]

Euro has a couple of potential systems in about a week.



Given the GFS run from earlier and the models being inconsistent/not developing anything beyond five days before, this looks like it could be the start of August activity.

[aspen]

Euro has a couple of potential systems in about a week.

https://i.imgur.com/VUIza8p.png

Given the GFS run from earlier and the models being inconsistent/not developing anything beyond five days before, this looks like it could be the start of August activity.

The MDR system from the earlier GFS runs and now this Euro run also appears in the CFS model, pretty much the exact same position and time.

[Stormybajan]

Euro has a couple of potential systems in about a week.

https://i.imgur.com/VUIza8p.png

Given the GFS run from earlier and the models being inconsistent/not developing anything beyond five days before, this looks like it could be the start of August activity.

The MDR system from the earlier GFS runs and now this Euro run also appears in the CFS model, pretty much the exact same position and time.

Is there any link to this CFS forecast?