WPAC: INVEST 96W

[Hayabusa]

96W.INVEST

96W INVEST 210731 0000 25.0N 142.0E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 311800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 311800.
WARNING VALID 011800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 26N 144E NNW 10 KT.

96W INVEST 210731 1800 25.7N 143.1E WPAC 15 999

[Sciencerocks]

[Hayabusa]

WTPN21 PGTW 010530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.3N 143.4E TO 31.1N 138.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 010000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 26.8N 143.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 26.8N 143.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 143.4E, APPROXIMATELY
160 NM NORTHEAST OF IWO-TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE SYSTEM IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF CONVERGENT SOUTHERLIES AND
DEEP MOISTURE AS INDICATED IN A 010334Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE.
A 010037Z ASCAT-A IMAGE REVEALS 25-30 KT WINDS WRAPPING TO THE EAST
OF THE LLCC AND 10-15 KT WINDS TO THE WEST. INVEST 96W IS LOCATED IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST), EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW (<15KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL
STRENGTHENING AND CONSOLIDATION AS THE SYSTEM PROPAGATES NORTHWEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
020530Z.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

WWJP25 RJTD 010600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 010600.
WARNING VALID 020600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA
AT 27.2N 143.1E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.