2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[aspen]

Euro has a couple of potential systems in about a week.

https://i.imgur.com/VUIza8p.png

Given the GFS run from earlier and the models being inconsistent/not developing anything beyond five days before, this looks like it could be the start of August activity.

The MDR system from the earlier GFS runs and now this Euro run also appears in the CFS model, pretty much the exact same position and time.

Is there any link to this CFS forecast?

Here’s the loop Hammy was using in the indicators thread: https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin ... &RES=0

The CFS is actually pretty excited about development and has a TC coming right off of Africa in about 5-6 days, but beyond that this “future Fred” has a very similar position and time frame as it does in the Euro run.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1421595860350251008

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1421595860350251008

Not gonna happen Luis maybe a brief TD. King TUTT rules August

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1421595860350251008

Not gonna happen Luis maybe a brief TD. King TUTT rules August

https://i.postimg.cc/3JMLy9Sv/97-B1-CCC7-F3-D0-440-A-8924-CE64-AECA68-C6.jpg

If it gets strong enough early, maybe we see a situation like Paulette where it gets blasted by a TUTT but survives, and once shear drops again, it’s able to intensify north of 20N.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1421595860350251008

Not gonna happen Luis maybe a brief TD. King TUTT rules August

https://i.postimg.cc/3JMLy9Sv/97-B1-CCC7-F3-D0-440-A-8924-CE64-AECA68-C6.jpg

If it gets strong enough early, maybe we see a situation like Paulette where it gets blasted by a TUTT but survives, and once shear drops again, it’s able to intensify north of 20N.

Also that is a shear map that is more than 10 days out and reflective of a continously busy EPAC as the GEFS shows; I personally am not sure if that is high confidence level for something that far out in time tbh

[captainbarbossa19]

Not gonna happen Luis maybe a brief TD. King TUTT rules August

https://i.postimg.cc/3JMLy9Sv/97-B1-CCC7-F3-D0-440-A-8924-CE64-AECA68-C6.jpg

If it gets strong enough early, maybe we see a situation like Paulette where it gets blasted by a TUTT but survives, and once shear drops again, it’s able to intensify north of 20N.

Also that is a shear map that is more than 10 days out and reflective of a continously busy EPAC as the GEFS shows; I personally am not sure if that is high confidence level for something that far out in time tbh

Shear maps are often not good more than 72 hours out. Not going to buy that pattern until we get closer.

[gatorcane]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1421595860350251008

Not gonna happen Luis maybe a brief TD. King TUTT rules August

https://i.postimg.cc/3JMLy9Sv/97-B1-CCC7-F3-D0-440-A-8924-CE64-AECA68-C6.jpg

Looks like the GFS also is predicting a large SAL surge from the east which literally squashes this low preventing development. We will see as the run is quite far out:

[captainbarbossa19]

Euro has a couple of potential systems in about a week.

https://i.imgur.com/VUIza8p.png

Given the GFS run from earlier and the models being inconsistent/not developing anything beyond five days before, this looks like it could be the start of August activity.

One thing to note is that if something does develop, there is a huge ridge over the Atlantic and east coast.

[AtlanticWind]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1421595860350251008

Not gonna happen Luis maybe a brief TD. King TUTT rules August

https://i.postimg.cc/3JMLy9Sv/97-B1-CCC7-F3-D0-440-A-8924-CE64-AECA68-C6.jpg

A 288 hour shear forecast? Unreliable would be an understatement.

[cycloneye]

00z ECMWF hanging on with the strong wave.

[Shell Mound]

00z ECMWF hanging on with the strong wave.

https://i.imgur.com/fxm3VZ9.gif

The incoming 00Z ensembles are likely to trend more bullishly, in line with the more aggressive operational run. However, on this run the prospective system still opens up into a wave at the end, owing to strengthening low-level trades and possibly a TUTT near the islands. Perhaps we’ll see a short-lived system that develops relatively close to West Africa and then degenerates due to more hostile conditions near the Lesser Antilles. The 00Z run shows a very vigorous TUTT axis emerging just as the system nears the islands. The same TUTT also serves to undercut the otherwise robust ML ridging to the northwest of the system, thus weakening the steering currents that might otherwise suggest a long-range threat to the CONUS, were a well-developed TC approaching. The TUTT looks to persist until the last few days of August, so systems will struggle until then.

[cycloneye]

Well, 06z GFS goes bonkers with the wave Euro develops and look at the track.

[cycloneye]

It deepens but is the first run doing this so take it with caution.

[cycloneye]

It deepens but is the first run doing this so take it with caution.

[SFLcane]

Welcome to August 1st!

Next couple weeks should be interesting lol

[aspen]

The 6z GFS’ long-range intensity for future Fred isn’t very important. What is important is that both the GFS and the Euro agree on a tropical wave emerging into the SE MDR on August 7th — just six days out — and developing into a TC within 48-72 hours after splashdown. This also agrees with what the CFS has shown. Over the next several days, we’ll need to look for consistent agreement, whether the CMC and/or ICON hop on board, and if the ensembles start to catch on. If this storm does form, it could be quite a good ACE maker but might pose a threat to land down the line due to its low latitude and the strong ridging that has been forecast for ASO.

[Yellow Evan]

Ignore what the GFS is showing shear wise in the tropical Atlantic. It’s way overdoing the TUTT cell due to overdoing Eastern Pacific activity.

[Jr0d]

No surprise nthe models are showing something for mid-August, though if something develops I do think it will be slower to develop that they are currently showing based on how 90%+ of the time when the models get a long range storm correct, their initial timeline will get pushed back by a few days to over a week.

I always say the hurricane season does not really start until August 15th.

[SFLcane]

Ignore what the GFS is showing shear wise in the tropical Atlantic. It’s way overdoing the TUTT cell due to overdoing Eastern Pacific activity.

This is true

[toad strangler]

No surprise nthe models are showing something for mid-August, though if something develops I do think it will be slower to develop that they are currently showing based on how 90%+ of the time when the models get a long range storm correct, their initial timeline will get pushed back by a few days to over a week.

I always say the hurricane season does not really start until August 15th.

I think everyone pretty much says that but I’ll raise ya 5 days and go with 8/20 in honor of one William Gray!