2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[aspen]

Ignore what the GFS is showing shear wise in the tropical Atlantic. It’s way overdoing the TUTT cell due to overdoing Eastern Pacific activity.

Yeah the long range is easily stuck in MJO bias. The MJO will reach Africa by next weekend, around the same time as future Fred’s wave emerges off of Africa. This is also when the first EPac major on the GFS runs starts to form, but with the MJO moving out and the WAM -VP cell starting to become dominant, it may face a deteriorating background state and struggle similar to Hilda. Odds are this system does not develop right off the Mexican coast as the GFS insists and development is delayed for several days until it gets to 110W-120W — just like Guillermo and Hilda.

I think Caribbean shear will continue for some time because there still will be a -VP EPac cell, but it won’t be as much as the GFS is claiming due to that cell being out-competed by the WAM and no longer being supported by the MJO. That, and there probably won’t be any majors east of 110-115W to impart their own shear into the WAtl.

[Category5Kaiju]

Ah yes, and the 6z GFS is now on board with development and shows a robust Atlantic system by the end of the run after showing zilch the past few runs. Typical GFS!

[wxman57]

The Tropical Atlantic remains quite stable, almost at winter levels.

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

This is verified by looking at a satellite loop or TPW loop of the basin. Lots and lots of sinking air, which is why the squalls dissipate after moving offshore west Africa. For something to really get going, it's going to have to track north of the area, north of 18N or so. That's what the 6Z GFS is indicating. Climatology suggests a sharp uptick in activity over the next couple of weeks. Unfortunately, the season isn't quite over. We'll probably see 3 named storms in August and maybe 5-6 in September.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Not seeing anything in the ensembles worth getting too excited about yet.

[aspen]

Correction to one of my previous posts: the wave that spawns “future Fred” on the GFS and ECMWF actually makes splashdown on Friday; Saturday/Sunday is when it starts to develop. The MJO will be over the eastern MDR and Africa by this time and could help the wave develop.

[wxman57]

Lots and lots of dry, sinking air still over the deep tropics. Another SAL outbreak just moving offshore in the NE part of the image below. Not uncommon for early August. I'm afraid activity will pick up by mid month.

[Shell Mound]

Not seeing anything in the ensembles worth getting too excited about yet.

The 00Z EPS has trended toward a much more active MDR by mid August, especially compared to yesterday’s 00Z/12Z suites. Support for TCG has grown.

[Woofde]

It deepens but is the first run doing this so take it with caution.

https://i.imgur.com/iiow74m.png

https://i.imgur.com/wRMugC7.png
[url]
https://i.imgur.com/L8OhI2c.gif[/url]

Obviously that's very far out, but it does make me wonder if more Florence-esque tracks are possible this year with the strong ridging.

Sent from my SM-G988U1 using Tapatalk

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Not seeing anything in the ensembles worth getting too excited about yet.

https://i.ibb.co/3sQNNhW/Ska-rmavbild-2021-08-01-kl-16-08-08.png
The 00Z EPS has trended toward a much more active MDR by mid August, especially compared to yesterday’s 00Z/12Z suites. Support for TCG has grown.

I wouldn't call that too active, just the EPS finally realizing mid-August isn't mid-December.

[Category5Kaiju]

It deepens but is the first run doing this so take it with caution.

https://i.imgur.com/iiow74m.png

https://i.imgur.com/wRMugC7.png

https://i.imgur.com/L8OhI2c.gif

Obviously that's very far out, but it does make me wonder if more Florence-esque tracks are possible this year with the strong ridging.

Sent from my SM-G988U1 using Tapatalk

Also that kind of track sort of reminds me of Hugo, Frances, Floyd, Andrew, or Dorian

[Cpv17]

The Tropical Atlantic remains quite stable, almost at winter levels.

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

This is verified by looking at a satellite loop or TPW loop of the basin. Lots and lots of sinking air, which is why the squalls dissipate after moving offshore west Africa. For something to really get going, it's going to have to track north of the area, north of 18N or so. That's what the 6Z GFS is indicating. Climatology suggests a sharp uptick in activity over the next couple of weeks. Unfortunately, the season isn't quite over. We'll probably see 3 named storms in August and maybe 5-6 in September.

Sounds like you don’t think much is gonna happen.

[tolakram]

The Tropical Atlantic remains quite stable, almost at winter levels.

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

This is verified by looking at a satellite loop or TPW loop of the basin. Lots and lots of sinking air, which is why the squalls dissipate after moving offshore west Africa. For something to really get going, it's going to have to track north of the area, north of 18N or so. That's what the 6Z GFS is indicating. Climatology suggests a sharp uptick in activity over the next couple of weeks. Unfortunately, the season isn't quite over. We'll probably see 3 named storms in August and maybe 5-6 in September.

Sounds like you don’t think much is gonna happen.

Did you miss the bolded part?

[toad strangler]

The Tropical Atlantic remains quite stable, almost at winter levels.

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

This is verified by looking at a satellite loop or TPW loop of the basin. Lots and lots of sinking air, which is why the squalls dissipate after moving offshore west Africa. For something to really get going, it's going to have to track north of the area, north of 18N or so. That's what the 6Z GFS is indicating. Climatology suggests a sharp uptick in activity over the next couple of weeks. Unfortunately, the season isn't quite over. We'll probably see 3 named storms in August and maybe 5-6 in September.

Sounds like you don’t think much is gonna happen.

Quite the opposite. That’s about as bullish as I’ve seen 57 get IRT seasonal thoughts

[Cpv17]

The Tropical Atlantic remains quite stable, almost at winter levels.

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

This is verified by looking at a satellite loop or TPW loop of the basin. Lots and lots of sinking air, which is why the squalls dissipate after moving offshore west Africa. For something to really get going, it's going to have to track north of the area, north of 18N or so. That's what the 6Z GFS is indicating. Climatology suggests a sharp uptick in activity over the next couple of weeks. Unfortunately, the season isn't quite over. We'll probably see 3 named storms in August and maybe 5-6 in September.

Sounds like you don’t think much is gonna happen.

Did you miss the bolded part?

Meh. Is 8 storms in two months during peak season really that much? Seems about average.

[SFLcane]

The Tropical Atlantic remains quite stable, almost at winter levels.

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

This is verified by looking at a satellite loop or TPW loop of the basin. Lots and lots of sinking air, which is why the squalls dissipate after moving offshore west Africa. For something to really get going, it's going to have to track north of the area, north of 18N or so. That's what the 6Z GFS is indicating. Climatology suggests a sharp uptick in activity over the next couple of weeks. Unfortunately, the season isn't quite over. We'll probably see 3 named storms in August and maybe 5-6 in September.

Sounds like you don’t think much is gonna happen.

Quite the opposite. That’s about as bullish as I’ve seen 57 get IRT seasonal thoughts

Oh yea! This is bullish wxman watch out.

[aspen]

Sounds like you don’t think much is gonna happen.

Did you miss the bolded part?

Meh. Is 8 storms in two months during peak season really that much? Seems about average.

It depends. 2017 only saw 4 storms form in September (Irma was late August), but they were all hurricanes and three of the storms active in the month produced 40-65 ACE each. 2020 had a record 10 storms form in September, but only Paulette and Teddy were reasonable ACE makers. It’s difficult to say how many storms will form in peak season and what the percentage of high ACE long-trackers will be, since both 2017 and 2020 had similarly warm MDRs but ended up with vastly different types of activity.

I’m inclined to believe we’ll see a mix of the extremes of 2017 and 2020 with a greater frequency of MDR long-trackers, but not as many storms overall as 2020. We’ll just have to wait and see.

[AutoPenalti]

I’ve never seen wxman and “afraid” in the same post.


That is saying something.

[toad strangler]

Sounds like you don’t think much is gonna happen.

Did you miss the bolded part?

Meh. Is 8 storms in two months during peak season really that much? Seems about average.

Most of August is not peak season.

[Shell Mound]

Sounds like you don’t think much is gonna happen.

Quite the opposite. That’s about as bullish as I’ve seen 57 get IRT seasonal thoughts

Oh yea! This is bullish wxman watch out.

We’ve already seen five NS to date. Three more in August and five more in September would add up to thirteen NS + additional activity in October and later.

[aspen]

Future Fred is far weaker but still trackable on the 12z GFS. Either the 18z will drop it entirely (for a time), or it’ll be stronger.