2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[AtlanticWind]

Euro has a hurricane , not really buying this run.

[AtlanticWind]

Euro has a depression in 48 hrs and upwards from there.

[Jr0d]

I'm no expert, but the EUROs latest run has high pressure that would push the system west towards the SE CONUS at the end of the run.

Obviously 240 hours out is not realiable, but is not a trend we want to see.

[Shell Mound]

Euro has a hurricane , not really buying this run.

The operational EC run is too strong vs. the ensembles. A track farther SW would also be more likely to impact the NE Caribbean/CONUS, given ridging.

[Nimbus]

ITCZ looks like it has migrated a little further north and the latest wave just coming off Africa is going to be kind of juicy. Not sure if that has already been factored in by the models yet.

[aspen]

Operational Euro switches its attention to the wave at 25W and turns it into a long-tracker with genesis in under 48 hours, while the ensembles are rather excited about both systems. Absolutely nothing on the GFS because it’s too focused on EPac activity that’s never going to materialize.

[Blown Away]

00z Euro continues to show a developing system through 10 days... Probably a little to aggressive with TD in @48 hours, IMO this area will be more SW towards NE Caribbean as a TW or developing storm... Run ends with this system getting stronger in a hurry, probably close to Cat 2 at 10 days...

[aspen]

06z GEFS ensembles do kinda show the Euro’s first system, but it never survives past the Cabo Verde islands. So far it’s favoring the system from the wave that’ll emerge late this week.

[jconsor]

I am skeptical of the EPS for the wave just off the African coast currently. Next wave likely has a better chance to develop.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1422155493372481536

[aspen]

06z GEFS ensembles are less enthusiastic with the later system. For once, the Euro is genesis happy — something I never thought I would say after it missed multiple Cat 4+ storms last year, although like what has been said above, it’s probably unrealistically excited about the first system.

So far nothing from the CMC or ICON. Unfortunately, the CMC seems to have gotten worse since last year.

[NDG]

I just don't trust the ECMWF past its 96-120 hr forecast whether it shows development or no development like I used to years ago.

[tolakram]

According to the Euro we have development in 36 hours or less. That would indeed be crazy if it verifies.

[aspen]

Wow, there’s a major on the 12z Euro ensembles for the wave coming off of Africa late this week. The Euro continues decent ensemble support for this potential system.

[captainbarbossa19]

Wow, there’s a major on the 12z Euro ensembles for the wave coming off of Africa late this week. The Euro continues decent ensemble support for this potential system.

Someone mentioned that the first wave might be clearing that path for the second one. Many of the Atlantic's strongest storms have formed this way so I would definitely keep an eye on this second system.

[AutoPenalti]

Wow, there’s a major on the 12z Euro ensembles for the wave coming off of Africa late this week. The Euro continues decent ensemble support for this potential system.

Weak sauce on the OP.

[aspen]

Wow, there’s a major on the 12z Euro ensembles for the wave coming off of Africa late this week. The Euro continues decent ensemble support for this potential system.

Weak sauce on the OP.

The OP models have been back and forth with development so much that it’s probably best to see if the ensembles are either consistent or showing stronger support, as well as watching for factors that could change or help/hamper development. Seems like there’ll be a SAL plume to the north of this wave as it emerges off of Africa, but the MJO should switch into the next phase around that time and possibly help out.

[aspen]

18z GFS does develop the late week wave, but not much. It then tries to develop a high latitude wave over NW Africa, because why not?

Update: 18z GEFS ensembles remain in decent support for this system. There might be a few more members showing development this run than at 12z. It only goes out to 162hr so far, so all are at TD or TS intensity.

[Blown Away]

06 GFS trying to develop the TW near 20W. TW/energy moves WNW near NE Caribbean and towards CONUS. Something to watch for sure.

[aspen]

The story remains the same: ensembles like the wave emerging in a few days, the operational models don’t. However, both the GFS and Euro have trended to have less EPac activity, perhaps correcting to the fact that the MJO will be favoring the Atlantic soon.

[NDG]

I would expect models start trending towards development a week from now over the next few days.