2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.imgur.com/mDX8V7n.jpg
JB getting fired up for August.

Ah yes, classic Bastardi.

[SFLcane]

Whaaaaaaaaa!?

I have not seen details yet.

 https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1422290634166218762

[AtlanticWind]

https://i.imgur.com/mDX8V7n.jpg
JB getting fired up for August.

Ah yes, classic Bastardi.

He is a hype machine.

[USTropics]

Whaaaaaaaaa!?

I have not seen details yet.

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1422290634166218762

He is using the graphics found here - https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/mofc_multi_tcyc_family_frequency?base_time=202108020000&parameter=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy&valid_time=202108080000

This was the forecast issued today (08/02):



This was the forecast from 07/29:

[SFLcane]

Whaaaaaaaaa!?

I have not seen details yet.

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1422290634166218762

He is using the graphics found here - https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/mofc_multi_tcyc_family_frequency?base_time=202108020000&parameter=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy&valid_time=202108080000

This was the forecast issued today (08/02):
https://i.imgur.com/csChFOy.png
https://i.imgur.com/6fYG4KP.png

This was the forecast from 07/29:
https://i.imgur.com/7CZCguo.png
https://i.imgur.com/yeVq68b.png

This guy, i still trying to find that dramatic increase in ace?

[aspen]

I’m getting doubtful of CSU and TSR’s July forecasts for 20 named storms. It is possible, but now a lot less likely due to the huge break in activity. To hit 20 NS, we would need to see 4 in August, 8 in September (the second highest on record), and 3 in the rest of the season. This could also be accomplished with a very backloaded season like 2020, although that would probably be the worst scenario since late-season storms would likely form closer to land.

20 NS isn’t impossible, but I’d put it at the upper limit of possible outcomes. 15 NS would be the lower limit. We’ll have to wait and see how bonkers peak season gets.

[AlphaToOmega]

I’m getting doubtful of CSU and TSR’s July forecasts for 20 named storms. It is possible, but now a lot less likely due to the huge break in activity. To hit 20 NS, we would need to see 4 in August, 8 in September (the second highest on record), and 3 in the rest of the season. This could also be accomplished with a very backloaded season like 2020, although that would probably be the worst scenario since late-season storms would likely form closer to land.

20 NS isn’t impossible, but I’d put it at the upper limit of possible outcomes. 15 NS would be the lower limit. We’ll have to wait and see how bonkers peak season gets.

20 NS is still possible. August looks like it will be very active, and with a La Nina the season is likely to be back-loaded.

[Category5Kaiju]

I’m getting doubtful of CSU and TSR’s July forecasts for 20 named storms. It is possible, but now a lot less likely due to the huge break in activity. To hit 20 NS, we would need to see 4 in August, 8 in September (the second highest on record), and 3 in the rest of the season. This could also be accomplished with a very backloaded season like 2020, although that would probably be the worst scenario since late-season storms would likely form closer to land.

20 NS isn’t impossible, but I’d put it at the upper limit of possible outcomes. 15 NS would be the lower limit. We’ll have to wait and see how bonkers peak season gets.

I mean, if we get 4 NSs in August, 6 in September, 4 in October, and 1 in November, that'll do the trick (with a weak La Nina likely to come to fruition I am not discounting activity dragging on late season). I personally think that's quite possible unless we get some major break during the middle of the season, which is something we'll have to see once the season gets rolling.

Now a 30 NS storm season imho is very unlikely at this point. But with us all coming out of 2020, it's so hard to believe that even getting an 18-20 NS season (which would be within the top 5 most active seasons) sounds inactive.

[cycloneye]

JB is pumped up.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1422328880275263493

[AlphaToOmega]

I am curious: what conditions must be present for post-season activity? There was a lot of post-season activity in the 2000s, but there has not been post-season activity since 2013. What happened?

[abajan]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/0yHyPnD-oyQ[/youtube]

[SFLcane]

JB is pumped up.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1422328880275263493

We’re can I find this data? If true we could be in for a longgggg season.

[Kingarabian]

JB is pumped up.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1422328880275263493

We’re can I find this data? If true we could be in for a longgggg season.

It'll come out on the 5th

[SFLcane]

JB is pumped up.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1422328880275263493

We’re can I find this data? If true we could be in for a longgggg season.

It'll come out on the 5th

So he has this data already?

[Kingarabian]

We’re can I find this data? If true we could be in for a longgggg season.

It'll come out on the 5th

So he has this data already?

Yes it's possible. The big time subscribers are always given first priority.

[tolakram]

You don't have to be big time, you just have to pay up.

[Kingarabian]

You don't have to be big time, you just have to pay up.

I mean those guys who pay thousands to ECMWF in order to sell subscriptions to regular users

[Deshaunrob17]

Gfs finally patting down on activity in the EPAC (slowly but surely) . When that happens, let’s hope systems stay away from the Caribbean (please) ...

My wishful thinking is we get a 2010

[Stormybajan]

Gfs finally patting down on activity in the EPAC (slowly but surely) . When that happens, let’s hope systems stay away from the Caribbean (please) ...

My wishful thinking is we get a 2010

Yeah until drunk uncle Hurricane Tomas rolls up October 30th! late to the party, and blasts the lesser antilies as a cat 1!

[captainbarbossa19]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1422265890767261699

Correct me if I am getting my years mixed up, but it seems like there was a huge SAL outbreak in August right before Harvey and Irma developed in 2017.