2021 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro continues with two solid systems by the end of the run @ 240 hours.

[Kingarabian]

Latest seasonal Euro shows 9 more named systems including 4 hurricanes.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for some gradual development
this weekend while the system remains offshore and moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[galaxy401]

Latest seasonal Euro shows 9 more named systems including 4 hurricanes.

Models sure love spinning up every single cloud that exists in the EPAC.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro continues to develop the 0/30 and another system right after:

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for some gradual development
this weekend while the system remains offshore and moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, parallel to and offshore the
coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[captainbarbossa19]

GFS is down to only showing one more EPAC system for the next 10 days. There is something trying to develop by day 10, but not near the amount of activity it was showing a few days ago. Also, it does not show genesis of the next system until about Tuesday.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro still very active through 10 days:

[captainbarbossa19]

12z Euro still very active through 10 days:
https://i.imgur.com/237yv37.png

Odd that the Euro is now showing more storms than the GFS.

[Category5Kaiju]

12z Euro still very active through 10 days:
https://i.imgur.com/237yv37.png

Ah yes, let's see, Jimena, Kevin, Linda, Marty, Nora? Within 10 days? Yeah, nice joke Euro,

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro still very active through 10 days:
https://i.imgur.com/237yv37.png

Ah yes, let's see, Jimena, Kevin, Linda, Marty, Nora? Within 10 days? Yeah, nice joke Euro,

The 12z operational-deterministic Euro only shows Jimena, Kevin, and Linda for the most part.

12z EPS shows Jimena, Kevin, Linda, and Marty In 16 days. Inconclusive about Nora.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred
miles offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico this weekend.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some
gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form
early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph, parallel to and offshore of the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[gatorcane]

Active EPAC on the 18Z GFS

[Kingarabian]

00Z GFS bringing in the time frame even closer, showing two systems developing in less than 7 days:

[storminabox]

I’d like to see a system of substance out of this spike in activity. So far it’s been all bark, no bite.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1423237341649547265




 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1423243816832745474




Lmao.

[aspen]

It’s crazy that we’re already up to the J storm, and it’s only early August in a developing Nina year. This season is doing better than last year, although only a third of the storms have developed into hurricanes while the rest have mostly been slop, and ACE is near to slightly below average despite an above-average number of storms.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro/GFS/CMC continue to look very active.

[Yellow Evan]

A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred
miles offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico by Sunday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some
gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form
early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph, parallel to and offshore of the coast of southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS has us up to Olaf.