2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1422588610029703170

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1422588610029703170

I was about to post how the wave quickly developed but got a little too north and weakened. However, if it continues westward after that and doesn’t completely die, it would run into warmer SSTs and perhaps have a chance there.

[captainbarbossa19]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1422588610029703170

I was about to post how the wave quickly developed but got a little too north and weakened. However, if it continues westward after that and doesn’t completely die, it would run into warmer SSTs and perhaps have a chance there.

Every day is trending towards stronger development. Often times, storms do not develop much until they get closer to the Caribbean. The cooler SSTs may help with this. Also, some models earlier this year were often underestimating the strength of the storms.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1422588610029703170

I was about to post how the wave quickly developed but got a little too north and weakened. However, if it continues westward after that and doesn’t completely die, it would run into warmer SSTs and perhaps have a chance there.

Every day is trending towards stronger development. Often times, storms do not develop much until they get closer to the Caribbean. The cooler SSTs may help with this. Also, some models earlier this year were often underestimating the strength of the storms.

Exactly; you don't need to have a long-track storm that immediately gets strong in the MDR. We saw this with storms like 2010 Earl and the 1900 Galveston hurricane that remained a TS throughout the MDR but became strong when in the WAtl

[captainbarbossa19]

I was about to post how the wave quickly developed but got a little too north and weakened. However, if it continues westward after that and doesn’t completely die, it would run into warmer SSTs and perhaps have a chance there.

Every day is trending towards stronger development. Often times, storms do not develop much until they get closer to the Caribbean. The cooler SSTs may help with this. Also, some models earlier this year were often underestimating the strength of the storms.

Exactly; you don't need to have a long-track storm that immediately gets strong in the MDR. We saw this with storms like 2010 Earl and the 1900 Galveston hurricane that remained a TS throughout the MDR but became strong when in the WAtl

At hour 264 on the 12z GFS, the vorticity from the system, while weak, is still there and moving west. Also, there is a strong ridge to its north blocking it from an OTS track.

[AlphaToOmega]

Here is another area the NHC should monitor for potential tropical development. A subtropical/tropical storm could form from a frontal boundary.

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This system has both mesoscale and global model support from the GFS, NAM 12km, and CMC. OISSTv2.1 analysis shows above-average sea surface temperatures in the Gulf Stream where the models show the system will develop. According to the 12Z GFS run to its north and south, it is expected to be surrounded by humid air; to its west, it is expected to be surrounded by dry air. This deserves a mention in the next Tropical Weather Outlook.

[Blown Away]

12z Euro... Showing a solid low pressure/TW moving across the Atlantic, near NE Caribbean, and ends moving WNW... Euro was showing this system yesterday as a hurricane at 240 hours and recurving well N of the NE Caribbean... Not sure if the Euro is developing one of the TW's we are following or something that has not exited Africa...

[cycloneye]

https://i.imgur.com/gkAOQsN.gif

12z Euro... Showing a solid low pressure/TW moving across the Atlantic, near NE Caribbean, and ends moving WNW... Euro was showing this system yesterday as a hurricane at 240 hours and recurving well N of the NE Caribbean... Not sure if the Euro is developing one of the TW's we are following or something that has not exited Africa...

There is a thread for wave that will emerge Africa on Thursday night.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=122042&p=2919186#p2919186

[Stormybajan]

https://i.imgur.com/gkAOQsN.gif

12z Euro... Showing a solid low pressure/TW moving across the Atlantic, near NE Caribbean, and ends moving WNW... Euro was showing this system yesterday as a hurricane at 240 hours and recurving well N of the NE Caribbean... Not sure if the Euro is developing one of the TW's we are following or something that has not exited Africa...

Thats the wave coming off late Thursday or Friday which will hopefully give the islands some heat relief but im interested in what the euro will do with that Landcane it has over Africat at 240 hours

[Category5Kaiju]

Latest released GEFS hints at what could be two systems long-range, one in the open Atlantic north of the MDR and near the Bahamas and a huge cluster with more support near the August 18-19 timeframe in the Gulf. I think the models are really beginning to pick up on the Atlantic becoming more favorable, as expected.

[AlphaToOmega]

This is from the latest GEFS run. It shows the potential for a tropical storm on the East Coast (Fred?) and another one near Cape Verde (Grace?).

[aspen]

Euro ensembles are suggesting that maybe one of the waves ahead of soon-to-be 92L has the potential to develop next week.

[Category5Kaiju]

Latest GEPS just out; looks like it is showing dense clusters of support for the two highlighted waves; many models take the far right one OTS, but many models favor the westernmost AOI developing into a system that comes dangerously close to the Bahamas and Florida. Something to watch for sure, things are looking to get serious now that it's August

[aspen]

00z CFS is suggesting that a storm could form in the eastern MDR in the August 21st-25th and become a monster of a Cape Verde storm in the following week. This is obviously really far out, but the model has been consistent suggesting an increase in MDR activity after we hit the August 20th mark.

[Category5Kaiju]

00z CFS is suggesting that a storm could form in the eastern MDR in the August 21st-25th and become a monster of a Cape Verde storm in the following week. This is obviously really far out, but the model has been consistent suggesting an increase in MDR activity after we hit the August 20th mark.

Do you mind if you share the link to that run? I for some reason am not sure where exactly to find the CFS runs?

[Stormybajan]

00z CFS is suggesting that a storm could form in the eastern MDR in the August 21st-25th and become a monster of a Cape Verde storm in the following week. This is obviously really far out, but the model has been consistent suggesting an increase in MDR activity after we hit the August 20th mark.

Do you mind if you share the link to that run? I for some reason am not sure where exactly to find the CFS runs?

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=noat&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=12&ZOOM=0&WMO=&ARCHIV=0&LOOP=1&RES=0

[AlphaToOmega]

There are four storms in this model: three near Cape Verde and one near the East Coast. This gets us Fred, Grace, Henri, and Ida. Plus, if the system in the Gulf develops, that gets us to Julian.

[GCANE]

GFS initializes it in 24 hrs.
Nice convergence of high TPW air

[jconsor]

Look to the western Atlantic and Caribbean for development as we approach mid-August.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1423240994452017157

[jconsor]

The GFS idea of multiple vortices spinning up in a monsoon trough is a known model bias, and likely very unrealistic.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1423223075366125568

There are four storms in this model: three near Cape Verde and one near the East Coast. This gets us Fred, Grace, Henri, and Ida. Plus, if the system in the Gulf develops, that gets us to Julian.
https://i.postimg.cc/vTV1nMyt/gfs-mslpa-atl-16.png