2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[GCANE]

ICON is picking up on two possible TCs
Confirming model support on both.

[jconsor]

Better resolution CFS forecast maps are available at:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc= (N America/Caribbean/W Atlantic)
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... h_nb&m=cfs (E Atlantic/W Africa)

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ (click on CFS in menu, then North America domain)

00z CFS is suggesting that a storm could form in the eastern MDR in the August 21st-25th and become a monster of a Cape Verde storm in the following week. This is obviously really far out, but the model has been consistent suggesting an increase in MDR activity after we hit the August 20th mark.

Do you mind if you share the link to that run? I for some reason am not sure where exactly to find the CFS runs?

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=noat&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=12&ZOOM=0&WMO=&ARCHIV=0&LOOP=1&RES=0

[AlphaToOmega]

Better resolution CFS forecast maps are available at:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc= (N America/Caribbean/W Atlantic)
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... h_nb&m=cfs (E Atlantic/W Africa)

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ (click on CFS in menu, then North America domain)

Do you mind if you share the link to that run? I for some reason am not sure where exactly to find the CFS runs?

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=noat&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=12&ZOOM=0&WMO=&ARCHIV=0&LOOP=1&RES=0

If we are to trust the CFS run (and I am very skeptical of a model run 672 hours out ), we are to have four storms from tropical origin in August. We could see some more develop from non-tropical origin. Again, this is based on a model run 672 hours out.

[GCANE]

Interesting, to say the least.
In 4 days, the African Easterly Jet all but disappears.

[aspen]

Better resolution CFS forecast maps are available at:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc= (N America/Caribbean/W Atlantic)
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... h_nb&m=cfs (E Atlantic/W Africa)

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ (click on CFS in menu, then North America domain)

Do you mind if you share the link to that run? I for some reason am not sure where exactly to find the CFS runs?

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=noat&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=12&ZOOM=0&WMO=&ARCHIV=0&LOOP=1&RES=0

I hope the CFS is nowhere near right about Hurricane Fred plowing right into Connecticut in a few weeks.

[GCANE]

The Blocking High over the NW CONUS has broken down.
This was hindering any ARWB from developing in the GOM / MDR.
With the upper troposphere cooling off, Rossby Waves will be dropping further south creating good ARWBs to occur in the TC development regions in the next couple weeks.
Looks like these waves will have potential to develop.

[Shell Mound]

Look to the western Atlantic and Caribbean for development as we approach mid-August.

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1423240994452017157

The EPS no longer develops the western system to any significant degree. It only focuses on the eastern system, which gets ejected OTS due to the monsoon.

[aspen]

The Blocking High over the NW CONUS has broken down.
This was hindering any ARWB from developing in the GOM / MDR.
With the upper troposphere cooling off, Rossby Waves will be dropping further south creating good ARWBs to occur in the TC development regions in the next couple weeks.
Looks like these waves will have potential to develop.


[url]https://i.postimg.cc/T3rB8C9t/RW1.png [/url]

What are ARWBs, and how do they influence TCG?

[GCANE]

The Blocking High over the NW CONUS has broken down.
This was hindering any ARWB from developing in the GOM / MDR.
With the upper troposphere cooling off, Rossby Waves will be dropping further south creating good ARWBs to occur in the TC development regions in the next couple weeks.
Looks like these waves will have potential to develop.


[url]https://i.postimg.cc/T3rB8C9t/RW1.png [/url]

What are ARWBs, and how do they influence TCG?

ARWB = Anticyclonic Rossby Wave Break
They occur around 250mb altitude and on the SE side of the bottom trof of a Rossby Wave.
The general public knows Rossby Waves as the Jet Stream.

The region of a ARWB creates lift in the troposphere allowing convection to develop.
Most of the strong TCs develop within ARWBs.

[Category5Kaiju]

There are four storms in this model: three near Cape Verde and one near the East Coast. This gets us Fred, Grace, Henri, and Ida. Plus, if the system in the Gulf develops, that gets us to Julian.
https://i.postimg.cc/vTV1nMyt/gfs-mslpa-atl-16.png

While I am not saying it is impossible, I would be a bit careful with classifying the East Coast system as a TC; this year at least so far we have not been getting these TCs spin up as easily near the Eastern Seaboard like last year, although I may be wrong

[aspen]

12z GFS has a low off of the Mid-Atlantic seemingly attempting to spin up into something by 102hr.

Update: now there’s a tiny Cape Verde low-rider that forms by August 13th.

[AlphaToOmega]

[captainbarbossa19]

https://i.postimg.cc/t4G8NYnm/gfs-mslp-uv850-atl-44.png

Surprisingly, the models are actually showing storms. Then again, these could be phantom ones. I think we are going to see a TC soon in the MDR though.

[Cpv17]

https://i.postimg.cc/t4G8NYnm/gfs-mslp-uv850-atl-44.png

Surprisingly, the models are actually showing storms. Then again, these could be phantom ones. I think we are going to see a TC soon in the MDR though.

Ensembles don’t really have anything of interest in the western part of the basin yet. I suppose that’ll change in another week or two. I couldn’t care less about what happens elsewhere but that’s just me.

[Stormybajan]

Hmmm, first Gfs is sniffing this strong tropical storm and now euro is catching on to a decently strong wave at the same timeframe. Cape Verde Season opening?

[Steve H.]

Yes, I believe so. Strong convection firing to the se of the islands off the coast of Africa.

[aspen]

The next month according to today’s CFS:
—Hurricane Fred making it to the East Coast by mid-August
—Grace forming in the subtropics and Henri forming in the MDR right after the August 20th “bell-ringing” mark
—A bit of a break in the 1st week of September
—Hurricane Julian forming in the MDR at the start of the second week of September

These are far out and likely to change, but this does tell us that there’s potential for multiple MDR storms — possibly a few long-tracking hurricanes — over the next few weeks, as well as some action in the subtropics in two weeks. The CFS has also significantly favored 92L over any other wave currently out there or set to emerge before August 20th, but there’s always a chance it misses some storms.

[aspen]

We might need to watch an area off the Mid-Atlantic/NE Coast starting late Sunday.

[Category5Kaiju]

The latest GFS run is interesting to say the least; it develops two concentrated areas of spin with 92L, then has a wave go right over Venezuela and Colombia westward and develop into a storm that hits Nicaragua.

[Stormybajan]

The latest GFS run is funny; it develops two concentrated areas of spin with 92L, then has a wave go right over Venezuela and Colombia westward and develop into a storm that hits Nicaragua.

I have NEVER seen a tropical cyclone so close Guyana in history lol. Im not sure whats going on there