2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Spacecoast]

ECMF ensembles show three systems...

[SFLcane]

One thing we know based on the lastest models is we should see a ramp in long range guidance soon the Atlantic looks very favorable from about Aug 20th through peak season sept 15th.

[gatorcane]

The EPAC is going to need to slow down for things to really ramp up in the Atlantic. The GFS continues to favor the EPAC going out to Nora.

[toad strangler]

18z GFS still an E PAC TC pezz dispenser. meh, we’ll see about all that

[aspen]

Hey, GFS, this isn’t an El Niño year or a season starting from +ENSO. Stop trying to pump out storms at a rate that rivals or exceeds 2016/18.

[Category5Kaiju]

Yeah idk, this GFS model continously blowing up literally every single cloud into a TC in the EPAC seems a bit fishy, but we'll see. I do have a hunch that there's some model bias here though and that it is slowly (but I guess it will be eventual) realizing the transition from EPAC to Atlantic in terms of favorability.

[crownweather]

00Z GFS model starting to trend towards showing more areas to watch in the next couple of weeks or so, including:

Invest 92-L that ends up heading westward quite a ways, but curves towards Bermuda in the longer range. Still think it's turning it too quickly.

Central Atlantic tropical wave that tries to make a go at it in the Bahamas later next week.

Also, development of a Gulf of Mexico tropical system near the end of the GFS model run.

[AtlanticWind]

00Z GFS model starting to trend towards showing more areas to watch in the next couple of weeks or so, including:

Invest 92-L that ends up heading westward quite a ways, but curves towards Bermuda in the longer range. Still think it's turning it too quickly.

Central Atlantic tropical wave that tries to make a go at it in the Bahamas later next week.

Also, development of a Gulf of Mexico tropical system near the end of the GFS model run.

Things are starting to come alive on GFS , expect it will start showing stronger systems soon.

[crownweather]

00Z GFS model starting to trend towards showing more areas to watch in the next couple of weeks or so, including:

Invest 92-L that ends up heading westward quite a ways, but curves towards Bermuda in the longer range. Still think it's turning it too quickly.

Central Atlantic tropical wave that tries to make a go at it in the Bahamas later next week.

Also, development of a Gulf of Mexico tropical system near the end of the GFS model run.

Things are starting to come alive on GFS , expect it will start showing stronger systems soon.

Yep, agreed. Wasn't buying the quick NW motion GFS was showing for 92-L. Definitely think that we'll see that tropical switch get turned on within the next 10 days or so & we should be rocking and rolling during the 2nd half of this month. BTW, Euro now slowly coming on board too with showing a little more development in the MDR in the next week or so.

[aspen]

00Z GFS model starting to trend towards showing more areas to watch in the next couple of weeks or so, including:

Invest 92-L that ends up heading westward quite a ways, but curves towards Bermuda in the longer range. Still think it's turning it too quickly.

Central Atlantic tropical wave that tries to make a go at it in the Bahamas later next week.

Also, development of a Gulf of Mexico tropical system near the end of the GFS model run.

There’s also a low pressure system that emerges from the Mid-Atlantic on Monday that might bear watching for a quick spin up like Bill or Kyle.

[AlphaToOmega]

I love it when my tropical storms develop inside Ontario

[aspen]

That long-range Caribbean/Gulf system appears on the 06z GFS too. Looks like the precursor wave emerges off of Africa on August 10th. If these currently marked waves fail to develop but help prep the environment ahead of this modeled wave, it’s possible we might need to watch it for MDR development.

[SFLcane]

Overnight long range guidance is still meh… interesting the ECMWF seasonal backed off to average. Just to dry and stable right now. It's competing factors Right now La Niña and WAM vs stability plus cooler MDR (relative to the rest).

We will see when it flips.

[Category5Kaiju]

GFS wants a pretty robust Caribbean rider by the end of its run

[Dean4Storms]

Of course out in long range none of these solutions are to be trusted but the overall pattern is toward an active next 4 weeks. East Coast and Gulf could come under the gun before the end of August arrives.

[doomhaMwx]

How about a bonafide hurricane in the Black Sea by GFS?!

 https://twitter.com/WxNB_/status/1423591639050825739



 https://twitter.com/WxNB_/status/1423591658696945674

[AlphaToOmega]

Models show tropical development inside Canada, and now they show development in the Black Sea? What is next? Are models going to start showing a 150-knot hurricane forming inside Kansas?

[Category5Kaiju]

How about a bonafide hurricane in the Black Sea by GFS?!

https://twitter.com/WxNB_/status/1423591639050825739?s=19
https://twitter.com/WxNB_/status/1423591658696945674?s=19

Ok, Medicanes hitting Italy or Greece are believable, but a hurricane hitting Ukraine is simply not.

[SFLcane]

Hello SFL…

[hurricane2025]

Big joe all about a gom system soon

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/stat ... 12832?s=10