ATL: 92L - Models

[gatorcane]

Recurve and poof on the latest GFS:

[AutoPenalti]

Recurve and poof on the latest GFS:

https://i.postimg.cc/RV724cDM/gfs-mslp-pcpn-eatl-fh6-168.gif

It looks like a fujiwhara effect from that random low that develops NE of 92L.

[hcane27]

That I believe will be the term of the season.
“Recurve and Poof”
R&P for you and me.

[emeraldislenc]

Could you explain your statement? What are you basing it on?

[captainbarbossa19]

Recurve and poof on the latest GFS:

https://i.postimg.cc/RV724cDM/gfs-mslp-pcpn-eatl-fh6-168.gif

The GFS might be underestimating the strength of the ridge. It sure recurves it in a hurry.

[crownweather]

Two subtle changes with the 00Z GFS re: 92-L. First, much less in the way of multiple vortices with 92-L. Two, no longer shows a quick NW turn into the open Atlantic, but instead seems to suggest a robust wave that makes it to the Lesser Antilles by late next week.

[captainbarbossa19]

Two subtle changes with the 00Z GFS re: 92-L. First, much less in the way of multiple vortices with 92-L. Two, no longer shows a quick NW turn into the open Atlantic, but instead seems to suggest a robust wave that makes it to the Lesser Antilles by late next week.

Yeah. I had doubts that this system was going to go OTS so quickly. Hopefully it will turn before it reaches the Islands in reality.

[aspen]

Euro ensembles completely drop this in favor of the wave ahead of it. Several of those members become hurricanes, and half of those are Cat 2s or stronger.

[Blown Away]

Euro ensembles completely drop this in favor of the wave ahead of it. Several of those members become hurricanes, and half of those are Cat 2s or stronger.

Favoring the "Central Atlantic Wave"? Can you post a graphic? Thanks.

[aspen]

Euro ensembles completely drop this in favor of the wave ahead of it. Several of those members become hurricanes, and half of those are Cat 2s or stronger.

Favoring the "Central Atlantic Wave"? Can you post a graphic? Thanks.

I’m on mobile so here’s the link instead: https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ece ... latlon=Off

[ronjon]

Euro ensembles completely drop this in favor of the wave ahead of it. Several of those members become hurricanes, and half of those are Cat 2s or stronger.

This is the wave 06z GFS picks up on. It drags it to the NE LA islands then through the greater antilles chain and reemerges in the eastern GOM where it becomes a weak low. 00z CMC does something similar but develops a weak low along the FL east coast. Tropics definitely heating up in the models with GFS developing 3 or 4 systems over the next 2 weeks.

[Category5Kaiju]

To be fair, the wave in front of 92L being favored more by the models does not surprise me one bit; 92L is still (if you really think about it) in an MDR with dry air and cooler than average ssts. Also in recent years, the MDR (especially the far east) has not seen very early August development, so perhaps the models are on something with the western wave? Let's still monitor 92L, but in the end 92L may not the prime wave of interest imho

[Shell Mound]

Euro ensembles completely drop this in favor of the wave ahead of it. Several of those members become hurricanes, and half of those are Cat 2s or stronger.

That's actually 92L a few days out, not a separate wave.

[AutoPenalti]

Euro ensembles completely drop this in favor of the wave ahead of it. Several of those members become hurricanes, and half of those are Cat 2s or stronger.

That's actually 92L a few days out, not a separate wave.

Not all members develop 92L but the ones that do have a little less than half that make them into 980's or lower.

[Shell Mound]

The 12Z GEFS members show 92L veering sharply northwestward within the next two days, owing to the monsoonal trough, thereby encountering cooler SST.

[captainbarbossa19]

12z GFS looks like it's doing Fujiwhara with 92L and the other wave in the Atlantic. I have seen this before. I am calling this run a trash run.

[Spacecoast]

Labeled as 92L... GFS ensembles + others...

[captainbarbossa19]

Labeled as 92L... GFS ensembles + others...
https://i.ibb.co/cQbS49t/ecmf1e.jpg

Looks like more members are taking this towards the Northern Leeward Islands instead of a likely OTS track.

[captainbarbossa19]

The 12z Euro shows this eventually tracking into the Caribbean and developing. I think this run might be off as the NHC has this moving more WNW.