Low Pressure east of Windward Islands (Is Invest 94L)

[AtlanticWind]

I am predicting we will see a blowup of convection as the system passes 50w.
I have seen this a lot especially in early and mid August waves.
We will see how conducive the conditions are at that point.
Not necessarily that it will develop into a storm, but I think it has some chance.

Just an amateurs prediction.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

A trough of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic
continues to produce some disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
This system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward, and
some slow development is possible early next week as it approaches
the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

The axis of a tropical wave is near 51W/52W, from 18N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 51W and 55W.

[SFLcane]

Gfs has the wave east of the islands flaring up and under an anticyclone tomorrow. Worth keeping an eye on

[Shell Mound]

Gfs has the wave east of the islands flaring up and under an anticyclone tomorrow. Worth keeping an eye on

https://i.postimg.cc/tTSMzTNd/6-E8071-E1-9-CA9-4-D51-A40-D-7-F9-E140-A811-A.png

The environment looks to be too stable for anything to develop, however conducive the UL environment may be. The GFS is developing another fantasy.

[SFLcane]

Gfs has the wave east of the islands flaring up and under an anticyclone tomorrow. Worth keeping an eye on

https://i.postimg.cc/tTSMzTNd/6-E8071-E1-9-CA9-4-D51-A40-D-7-F9-E140-A811-A.png

The environment looks to be too stable for anything to develop, however conducive the UL environment may be. The GFS is developing another fantasy.

No…

Could be a fantasy? Sure there models BUT the upper pattern will be quite favorable in the SW Atlantic. Icon blows it up into a hurricane nearing SFL.

It’s highlighted by the nhc so we will do what we do best on this forum and track.

[toad strangler]

Gfs has the wave east of the islands flaring up and under an anticyclone tomorrow. Worth keeping an eye on

https://i.postimg.cc/tTSMzTNd/6-E8071-E1-9-CA9-4-D51-A40-D-7-F9-E140-A811-A.png

The environment looks to be too stable for anything to develop, however conducive the UL environment may be. The GFS is developing another fantasy.

No…

Could be a fantasy? Sure there models BUT the upper pattern will be quite favorable in the SW Atlantic. Icon blows it up into a hurricane nearing SFL.

It’s highlighted by the nhc so we will do what we do best on this forum and track.

It’s August. That’s all you need to know. Watch EVERYTHING in this position regardless of what modeling shows.

[SFLcane]

The environment looks to be too stable for anything to develop, however conducive the UL environment may be. The GFS is developing another fantasy.

No…

Could be a fantasy? Sure there models BUT the upper pattern will be quite favorable in the SW Atlantic. Icon blows it up into a hurricane nearing SFL.

It’s highlighted by the nhc so we will do what we do best on this forum and track.

It’s August. That’s all you need to know. Watch EVERYTHING in this position regardless of what modeling shows.

But, but isn’t the season over? Nothing is going to form or make it past 50w.

[cycloneye]

Shell Mound You are smacking everything down. A reminder of your numbers at our S2K poll that were 17/11/6 ACE 190.

[lsuhurricane]

The GFS and ICON aren't too dissimilar in their depiction of this wave on approach to FL. Little by little, the GFS is amplifying this wave on subsequent model runs. Certainly not a TS/hurricane that the ICON is showing, however.

One to watch for sure.

[Shell Mound]

Shell Mound You are smacking everything down. A reminder of your numbers at our S2K poll that were 17/11/6 ACE 190.

I’m cancelling myself post-mortem. I’m just compensating for my early bullishness, on further inspection of the conditions at hand.

[Shell Mound]

Gfs has the wave east of the islands flaring up and under an anticyclone tomorrow. Worth keeping an eye on

https://i.postimg.cc/tTSMzTNd/6-E8071-E1-9-CA9-4-D51-A40-D-7-F9-E140-A811-A.png

The environment looks to be too stable for anything to develop, however conducive the UL environment may be. The GFS is developing another fantasy.

No…

Could be a fantasy? Sure there models BUT the upper pattern will be quite favorable in the SW Atlantic. Icon blows it up into a hurricane nearing SFL.

It’s highlighted by the nhc so we will do what we do best on this forum and track.

If it’s going to do anything it needs to generate much more convection over the next few days and do so persistently in order to come close to the GFS/ICON.

The 12Z GEFS members do not even show development, so the prospects for this system appear very marginal at best. I don’t trust the operational GFS/ICON.

I could be wrong, but I’m calling it a fantasy until proven otherwise. We shall see.

[Blown Away]

NHC has the wave positioned @12N/44W, but clear broad circulation just to the E of this position. The modeling clearly showing some kind of multiple center/gyre in this area and consolidates and builds more convection as it nears the Caribbean. IMO, the TW to watch ATM.

[Shell Mound]

The circled area is highlighted by the NHC. However, neither this area nor the circulation to its east is generating convection, owing to the very stable thermodynamic situation, so any low-level circulation is likely to collapse, owing to the absence of convection and the influence of the monsoonal trough. Note that numerous outflow boundaries are emanating from the lines of convergence, indicating hostile conditions. At this point the environment is simply too dry to facilitate even the slightest development over the next few days, however conducive the UL environment may be. UL conditions and SST are irrelevant if the environment is too dry for a system to consolidate. Any circulation is going to perish without convection.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

A tropical wave located over the west-central tropical Atlantic
is producing limited shower activity. Development, if any, of this
system is expected to be slow to occur as it moves west-
northwestward and approaches the Lesser Antilles early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Blown Away]

https://i.ibb.co/tYGPFbH/Suspect-1.png

The circled area is highlighted by the NHC. However, neither this area nor the circulation to its east is generating convection, owing to the very stable thermodynamic situation, so any low-level circulation is likely to collapse, owing to the absence of convection and the influence of the monsoonal trough. Note that numerous outflow boundaries are emanating from the lines of convergence, indicating hostile conditions. At this point the environment is simply too dry to facilitate even the slightest development over the next few days, however conducive the UL environment may be. UL conditions and SST are irrelevant if the environment is too dry for a system to consolidate. Any circulation is going to perish without convection.

ATM your assessment seems correct, but based off 12z ICON/GFS it seems ex-91L gets absorbed into the Central Atlantic TW as it moves closer to the islands in a few days. That's when the environment moistens up a bit and ICON on it's own showing a developed system.

I give it a 20% of developing!

[Shell Mound]

https://i.ibb.co/tYGPFbH/Suspect-1.png

The circled area is highlighted by the NHC. However, neither this area nor the circulation to its east is generating convection, owing to the very stable thermodynamic situation, so any low-level circulation is likely to collapse, owing to the absence of convection and the influence of the monsoonal trough. Note that numerous outflow boundaries are emanating from the lines of convergence, indicating hostile conditions. At this point the environment is simply too dry to facilitate even the slightest development over the next few days, however conducive the UL environment may be. UL conditions and SST are irrelevant if the environment is too dry for a system to consolidate. Any circulation is going to perish without convection.

ATM your assessment seems correct, but based off 12z ICON/GFS it seems ex-91L gets absorbed into the Central Atlantic TW as it moves closer to the islands in a few days. That's when the environment moistens up a bit and ICON on its own showing a developed system.

Ex-91L will likely lose its circulation prior to its “absorption,” owing to its lack of convection. The problem is that the two models are assuming that there will be a developed low to ex-91L’s west. Given that there is no convection to ex-91L’s west, much less evidence of a secondary circulation, the odds that there will be anything to “absorb” ex-91L are infinitesimally small. So the actual odds of development are likely closer to 0% than 20%, but the NHC, as usual, is being cautious, just to ensure the safety of the public, which is wise. As noted previously, even the 12Z GEFS ensembles are far less aggressive than both the operational GFS and the ICON, so the actual “signal” for development is quite weak.

[AtlanticWind]

I actually think this may get bumped up by NHC this evening
Think this has a decent chance at being a named storm.

[AtlanticWind]

The environment looks to be too stable for anything to develop, however conducive the UL environment may be. The GFS is developing another fantasy.

No…

Could be a fantasy? Sure there models BUT the upper pattern will be quite favorable in the SW Atlantic. Icon blows it up into a hurricane nearing SFL.

It’s highlighted by the nhc so we will do what we do best on this forum and track.

If it’s going to do anything it needs to generate much more convection over the next few days and do so persistently in order to come close to the GFS/ICON.

The 12Z GEFS members do not even show development, so the prospects for this system appear very marginal at best. I don’t trust the operational GFS/ICON.

I could be wrong, but I’m calling it a fantasy until proven otherwise. We shall see.

There have been several systems in the last few years that didnt have a lot of model support
The area which this is headed looks like it could be somewhat conducive.
I think this area is also a more likely spot for an early august system than
where 92l is , although that system is more impressive at the moment.

[Shell Mound]

The incoming 12Z ECMWF is roughly as bearish as the 00Z run. The vorticity may be slightly more consolidated, but otherwise I see little run-to-run variation.