2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[Category5Kaiju]

It’s so strange how the Atlantic, in a -ENSO year, is struggling to develop anything and has been in a month-long gap in activity while the EPac keeps popping out storms at a pace comparable to 2016 and 2018. The current Atlantic break is set to be the longest since 2016.

Actually I am not confused as much by this; 2016 and 2018 were featuring a ton of quality storms by August 6. While yes the EPAC is busy now, other than Felicia, most of its storms have been relatively weak and short lived. So imho the EPAC is only favorable up to a certain point as being displayed now, it’s only a matter of time before climo wins and causes the EPAC to really struggle with quality storms imho.

[psyclone]

It’s so strange how the Atlantic, in a -ENSO year, is struggling to develop anything and has been in a month-long gap in activity while the EPac keeps popping out storms at a pace comparable to 2016 and 2018. The current Atlantic break is set to be the longest since 2016.

It has been a long dead streak. No matter what happens at peak season, the "moat" was definitely present this year. Recall the posts suggesting increased activity in late July? Rarely does that ever pan out.

[AlphaToOmega]

I feel like this needs to be said. There is nothing strange about a lull of activity. All seasons, even record-breaking ones, have lulls of activity. It is the MJO. That is it. Go on

[Steve]

It’s so strange how the Atlantic, in a -ENSO year, is struggling to develop anything and has been in a month-long gap in activity while the EPac keeps popping out storms at a pace comparable to 2016 and 2018. The current Atlantic break is set to be the longest since 2016.

MJO

[Steve]

I feel like this needs to be said. There is nothing strange about a lull of activity. All seasons, even record-breaking ones, have lulls of activity. It is the MJO. That is it. Go on

Yes.

[Jr0d]

I feel like this needs to be said. There is nothing strange about a lull of activity. All seasons, even record-breaking ones, have lulls of activity. It is the MJO. That is it. Go on

We had folks declaring 'season over's last August when we had a lull. Also I remember many folks saying the 2005 season was over because there was too much SAL.

Next Friday I doubt there will be any naysayers as both climatology things heat up, as well as the operational models suggest activity. I would not be surprised if we have two named storms by next weekend.

[AxaltaRacing24]

It’s so strange how the Atlantic, in a -ENSO year, is struggling to develop anything and has been in a month-long gap in activity while the EPac keeps popping out storms at a pace comparable to 2016 and 2018. The current Atlantic break is set to be the longest since 2016.

Those storms are struggling though. That basin is still quite hostile, especially for it's peak season currently. The EPAC activity is comparable to an Atlantic that only produced Tropical storms and one weak hurricane form 8/15-9/20.

[AxaltaRacing24]

It’s so strange how the Atlantic, in a -ENSO year, is struggling to develop anything and has been in a month-long gap in activity while the EPac keeps popping out storms at a pace comparable to 2016 and 2018. The current Atlantic break is set to be the longest since 2016.

It has been a long dead streak. No matter what happens at peak season, the "moat" was definitely present this year. Recall the posts suggesting increased activity in late July? Rarely does that ever pan out.

There is a reason why 2005 and 2020 had the number of named storms that they did. Look at their July's compared to other seasons. That kind of activity is incredibly rare.

[SFLcane]

Hope you enjoyed the quite times the show is about to start!

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1423740765444874242

[Woofde]

It’s so strange how the Atlantic, in a -ENSO year, is struggling to develop anything and has been in a month-long gap in activity while the EPac keeps popping out storms at a pace comparable to 2016 and 2018. The current Atlantic break is set to be the longest since 2016.

It has been a long dead streak. No matter what happens at peak season, the "moat" was definitely present this year. Recall the posts suggesting increased activity in late July? Rarely does that ever pan out.

There is a reason why 2005 and 2020 had the number of named storms that they did. Look at their July's compared to other seasons. That kind of activity is incredibly rare.

The last 5 years have been so active that people are treating that pace and rate of destructive storms as normal. When the Atlantic does return to a more normal or below average pace the season cancel posts will be wild.

Even with the lull, this season is about double the average of named storms days, and above average in ACE (12.8 now vs the 9.3 average). We are perfectly on track for an above average hurricane season.


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[SFLcane]

It’s interesting it lines up with the LRC theory of tc’s tracking north towards Florida and gulf from the Caribbean.

[AlphaToOmega]

It is the relatively high amplitude of the unfavorable MJO as well as the SAL that made July 2021 so inactive. A favorable high-amplitude MJO phase is here, and SAL is starting to let up; this is a recipe for a very active August. I personally believe August 2021 will be more active than August 2020 and August 2017.

Some people think that it is interesting that the EPac is so active despite -ENSO and -PDO, but this is not abnormal for -ENSO/-PDO years. The 2017 East Pacific Season featured its ninth storm as early as July 23. The -ENSO and -PDO will ensure that the 2021 Pacific Season is very front-loaded and that the 2021 Atlantic Season is very back-loaded. The worst is yet to come for the Atlantic. We could be tracking Atlantic storms into late November and possibly December.

[AxaltaRacing24]

It’s interesting it lines up with the LRC theory of tc’s tracking north towards Florida and gulf from the Caribbean.

That is for sure one of the more possible tracks with this years steering pattern. We just have to hope that a storm won't be there to put it into action.

[AlphaToOmega]

The Atlantic has already woken up from its one-month-long hibernation with two MDR disturbances being tracked by the NHC. Come August 11, the Atlantic is going to be in Phase II, which would definitely be a stark contrast from July. Come peak season, the Atlantic is going to be in Phase IV, which are the most favorable for tropical activity.

What is also interesting to note is that the ECMWF keeps underestimating the amplitude of the MJO, which would probably mean a train of activity starting this month and continuing throughout September and into October. When this will end, who can say?

The people who tried cancelling the season are likely going to lose their credibility faster than a Concorde flying through the air.

[Category5Kaiju]

The Atlantic has already woken up from its one-month-long hibernation with two MDR disturbances being tracked by the NHC. Come August 11, the Atlantic is going to be in Phase II, which would definitely be a stark contrast from July. Come peak season, the Atlantic is going to be in Phase IV, which are the most favorable for tropical activity.

What is also interesting to note is that the ECMWF keeps underestimating the amplitude of the MJO, which would probably mean a train of activity starting this month and continuing throughout September and into October. When this will end, who can say?

The people who tried cancelling the season are likely going to lose their credibility faster than a Concorde flying through the air.

Imho the season cancel posts will fall in credibility faster than a rock falling from the top of Mt. Everest.

[aspen]

It has been a long dead streak. No matter what happens at peak season, the "moat" was definitely present this year. Recall the posts suggesting increased activity in late July? Rarely does that ever pan out.

There is a reason why 2005 and 2020 had the number of named storms that they did. Look at their July's compared to other seasons. That kind of activity is incredibly rare.

The last 5 years have been so active that people are treating that pace and rate of destructive storms as normal. When the Atlantic does return to a more normal or below average pace the season cancel posts will be wild.

Even with the lull, this season is about double the average of named storms days, and above average in ACE (12.8 now vs the 9.3 average). We are perfectly on track for an above average hurricane season.


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The thing that makes this lull different is how we saw not just the earliest 5th storm on record, but a very rare July MDR hurricane. It’s so odd to see what has historically been a sign of high activity be followed by a gap of this magnitude, although it is similar to how 2016 saw the earliest 3rd and 4th storms but then was dead for a month.

[toad strangler]

There is a reason why 2005 and 2020 had the number of named storms that they did. Look at their July's compared to other seasons. That kind of activity is incredibly rare.

The last 5 years have been so active that people are treating that pace and rate of destructive storms as normal. When the Atlantic does return to a more normal or below average pace the season cancel posts will be wild.

Even with the lull, this season is about double the average of named storms days, and above average in ACE (12.8 now vs the 9.3 average). We are perfectly on track for an above average hurricane season.


Sent from my SM-G988U1 using Tapatalk

The thing that makes this lull different is how we saw not just the earliest 5th storm on record, but a very rare July MDR hurricane. It’s so odd to see what has historically been a sign of high activity be followed by a gap of this magnitude, although it is similar to how 2016 saw the earliest 3rd and 4th storms but then was dead for a month.

But we all
Saw it coming from a far far away. There are no surprises here.

[Category5Kaiju]

I think 2016 had lingering effects from the Super El Niño, which may have resulted in somewhat unfavorable conditions in the Atlantic; this year we are coming out of a moderate La Niña year and are headed back toward Nina as a likely outcome. I still cannot see at least based on this alone why ENSO would be cruel to the Atlantic.

[AlphaToOmega]

NotSparta's OISST maps are a day old. Usually OISST maps are updated 15:00-16:00 EDT. Are the servers down?

[Deshaunrob17]

I feel like this needs to be said. There is nothing strange about a lull of activity. All seasons, even record-breaking ones, have lulls of activity. It is the MJO. That is it. Go on

After a hyperactive season, expectations are usually high for the next year
We need to remember how 2018&!2019 operated
2018 nothing in the Deep Tropics in August until Florence. At the very end of the month
2019 nothing in the Deep Tropics in August until Dorian came I think early September
2020 even struggled during the first 3 weeks because Josephine Was only a weak storm
2017- Harvey struggled..Saharan Dust in the MDR kept intensity at bay then shear did the rest in the Caribbean.
In terms of hurricanes moving through the MDR in August since 2000, all I think about is 2000, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2010 2015 -6/20 years... Not that common...