WPAC: INVEST 91W

[Hayabusa]

91W.INVEST

91W INVEST 210806 0600 27.1N 144.5E WPAC 15 1005

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 062030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/062030Z-070600ZAUG2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061351ZAUG2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061353ZAUG2021//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060154ZAUG2021//
REF/D/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061352ZAUG2021//
NARR/REFS A, B, C AND D ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 29.4N 145.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 146.4E, APPROXIMATELY
399 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 061559Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION
BEING SHEARED TOWARD THE EASTERN SEMI CIRCLE WITH FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE LLC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL-CHANNEL
OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28 TO 29C. HOWEVER,
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS OFFSET BY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 40
KNOTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, THEY ARE SPLIT ON WHETHER 91W WILL
CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY TO WARNING CRITERIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

Every WPAC system gif I look at and the system is somehow getting sheared

[Hayabusa]

TCFA while JMA considers it as an extratropical low

WTPN21 PGTW 071700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 37.4N 149.2E TO 42.0N 162.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071630Z INDICATES THAT AN ILL-DEFINE CIRCULATION CENTER
IS LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 149.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 33.7N 147.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 149.4E, APPROXIMATELY
415 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA AB. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 071130Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ILL-DEFINED LLC WITH 25-30 KT WINDS IN
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. ANALYSES INDICATE A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY POLEWARD OUTLFOW ALOFT, LOW (<15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND MARGINAL (26C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 91W
WILL CONSOLIDATE AND REMAIN NEAR CURRENT INTENSITY AS IT PROPAGATES
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ANY INCREASE IN THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE LLC WOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO MEET WARNING
CRITERIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
081700Z.//
NNNN

91W INVEST 210807 1800 38.9N 150.7E WPAC 25 998

WWJP27 RJTD 071800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 071800.
WARNING VALID 081800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1004 HPA
AT 39N 151E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NE 15 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 12 HOURS.