Low Pressure east of Windward Islands (Is Invest 94L)

[cycloneye]

12z EC has the vorticity.

[toad strangler]

12z EC has the vorticity.

https://i.imgur.com/DhOZZDj.gif

Washes it out over Cuba. But, calander demands that we track.

[captainbarbossa19]

12z EC has the vorticity.

https://i.imgur.com/DhOZZDj.gif

Washes it out over Cuba. But, calander demands that we track.

And it did so well with Elsa's vorticity. Oh wait....

[Jr0d]

Not looking like much right now on the IR(EDIT)...however the visible is showing some spin at the surface.

However the ICON just had the it's strongest run yet, showing a tiny hurricane approaching South Florida next weekend. Also most of the models show it doing something as it approaches Florida.

Definitely something we need to watch.

(Edit...still waking up and taking in information)

[captainbarbossa19]

Not looking like much right now on the IR(EDIT)...however the visible is showing some spin at the surface.

However the ICON just had the it's strongest run yet, showing a tiny hurricane approaching South Florida next weekend. Also most of the models show it doing something as it approaches Florida.

Definitely something we need to watch.

(Edit...still waking up and taking in information)

It shows gradual intensification from about the Northern Leeward Islands to the Bahamas. That region is notorious for producing nasty storms. Looks like it's still moving WNW towards Miami at the last frame. This is still over a week away from any potential CONUS impacts, but you are right about needing to watch this.

[cycloneye]

Some 12z Ens ensemble members develop.

[Category5Kaiju]

This entire situation almost reminds me of that infamous jealous girlfriend meme, where the blue shirt girl is 92L and the red shirt girl that the guy (like us wx trackers) is looking at instead is this 20% wave.

[captainbarbossa19]

18z GFS shows this eventually tracking through the Bahamas into the Florida Straits.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A tropical wave located over the west-central tropical Atlantic
is producing limited shower activity. Significant development of
this system is not expected as it moves west-northwestward across
the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Sea during the early to
middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[captainbarbossa19]

0z GFS now has this wave intensifying on approach to the Leeward Islands.

[captainbarbossa19]

0z GFS now has this wave intensifying on approach to the Leeward Islands.

The vorticity of this looks a lot stronger as it's approaching the Bahamas. I wonder if the Euro is going to show something similar?

[Shell Mound]

Now that the 00Z EPS has discarded this system in toto, it definitely looks like another GFS/ICON fantasy. The basin just isn’t favourable to date.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

A tropical wave located over the west-central tropical Atlantic
is producing limited shower activity. Significant development of
this system is not anticipated as it moves west-northwestward
across the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Sea during the
early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[NDG]

I am really surprised the NHC has chances for development with with wave very low. It will will have very good UL wind pattern, the only problem it may have will be from a not so moist environment, but with the fairly warm waters over the eastern Caribbean near the Lesser Antilles it could blossom and spin up really quick like Elsa did.
Based on the GFS its forward speed will not be as fast as Elsa, I estimate it to be 19-20 mph as it tracks through the Lesser Antilles which is about average for this time of the year.

The GFS little by little keeps trending towards weak development, not much of its ensembles support development though.
A good third of the Euro ensembles show some weak development as it tracks through the Lesser Antilles.

[NDG]

06z Euro ensembles, the trend continues for weak development.

[Category5Kaiju]

I am really surprised the NHC has chances for development with with wave very low. It will will have very good UL wind pattern, the only problem it may have will be from a not so moist environment, but with the fairly warm waters over the eastern Caribbean near the Lesser Antilles it could blossom and spin up really quick like Elsa did.
Based on the GFS its forward speed will not be as fast as Elsa, I estimate it to be 19-20 mph as it tracks through the Lesser Antilles which is about average for this time of the year.

The GFS little by little keeps trending towards weak development, not much of its ensembles support development though.
A good third of the Euro ensembles show some weak development as it tracks through the Lesser Antilles.

https://i.imgur.com/kGjibbF.png
https://i.imgur.com/kxLaYfP.png

ICON has consistently liked this system on the other hand.

[Shell Mound]

It is interesting to note that this area is generating far more convection during the ongoing diurnal maximum than either the system to its immediate east or 92L. It is also closer in proximity to the favourable MJO, so perhaps it has a better chance than the other two systems, at least in the short term. If it can somehow avoid significant interaction with the Greater Antilles, it will likely pose a potential threat to the Bahamas and South Florida, given low-to-mid-level steering over the next five to six days. The last few runs of the EC ensembles have also become much more bullish in regard to this area. Nevertheless, TCG is still rather unlikely at this point in time, given overall stability, but I think this system has more of an opportunity to develop than the other two.

[NDG]

For whatever is worth, 12z ICON has this wave becoming a hurricane while tracking through the northern Bahamas.

[NDG]

One thing this TW has in its advantage that is much further south than 92L, if it can stay away from the much drier environement to the north I think it could have a decent chance to develope.

[lsuhurricane]

These recent GFS runs should really light this thread up like a Christmas tree. Low latitude runner on the 12z. Clearly finding ideal conditions on approach to the GA islands