Small low Pressure west of Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 93L)

[Category5Kaiju]

I mean at least with the latest GFS you can still track its presence as it nears the Florida Strait

[AlphaToOmega]

This tropical wave is surrounded to its West and to its East by other tropical waves. It is also part of the monsoon trough, so air humidity is not going to be an impeding factor for this wave.

[Hurricaneman]

The thing I’m seeing with the GFS that’s concerning is that run by run it’s trending stronger and west so I would monitor this as this may be our next named storm then open the flood gates for many more systems after

[AutoPenalti]

Still think the GFS is wrong in that it will intensify as quickly as it’s showing, likely that it’ll be a moderate TS approaching the islands by Wednesday night into Thursday.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS very bullish.

[chaser1]

Still think the GFS is wrong in that it will intensify as quickly as it’s showing, likely that it’ll be a moderate TS approaching the islands by Wednesday night into Thursday.

Agreed, and it appears that GFS heard you and self corrected itself in the 12Z run just rolling out now. Now showing this feature to be a bit weaker, faster and a bit further southwest of prior forecasts. Of course, this could have very relevant ramifications down the line should this system eventually develop as still shown to do. With a track further west and south, also comes greater risk of possible impact to the Eastern Caribbean and other points downstream. Given the few areas of disturbed weather out there right now, I think this one merits the most concern.

[aspen]

This wave takes a few days to develop, so it’s not an unreasonable forecast. It would be a different story if it was showing a TD within 24 hours like the Euro did last week with the Cabo Verde wave. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see if it starts producing convection and tries to consolidate. If the GFS is right about its small size, it would be prone to massive intensity swings like Elsa.

[BobHarlem]

[cycloneye]

Same track as Maria thru PR but is first run doing this so we wait for more.

[Hurricaneman]

The Euro ensembles say that even Florida needs to watch this, might be a threat to the east coast but it’s 8 to 10 days away on the models so I’m keeping an eye on it but not much concern as of now

[Category5Kaiju]

Same track as Maria thru PR but is first run doing this so we wait for more.

https://i.imgur.com/G1QrnFo.gif

Yeah that track really is eerily reminiscent of that nasty storm.

[Cpv17]

Well I see the GFS is having its usual right side bias again.

[SFLcane]

For the Conus it’s early but looks the shields are up eastcost trof waiting for it. Luis keep tabs on this one

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC with hardly anything, loop below. Might be a one-off GFS run, let’s see the Euro:

[cycloneye]

For the Conus it’s early but looks the shields are up eastcost trof waiting for it. Luis keep tabs on this one

I have to possibly deal with two.

[aspen]

12Z CMC with hardly anything, loop below. Might be a one-off GFS run, let’s see the Euro:

https://i.postimg.cc/HxdPZv4f/gem-z850-vort-eatl-fh0-156.gif

Like it’s gonna show anything. Even the ensembles have a better chance of showing development, and they were pretty dead at 00z.

[Category5Kaiju]

It looks like at least based on the recent Gfs run that it runs through a Hebert box? I know it's not a definitive Florida-impact indicator, but still interesting to see

[gatorcane]

The GFS ensembles not enthusiastic. I call BS GFS OP run

[AlphaToOmega]

[AlphaToOmega]

Both the GFS and CMC develop the eastern-most wave in the Gulf of Mexico. Only the GFS shows the middle wave developing.