Small low Pressure west of Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 93L)

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12Z CMC with hardly anything, loop below. Might be a one-off GFS run, let’s see the Euro:

https://i.postimg.cc/HxdPZv4f/gem-z850-vort-eatl-fh0-156.gif

Like it’s gonna show anything. Even the ensembles have a better chance of showing development, and they were pretty dead at 00z.

The Euro is only going to show the system as nothing more than a mouse fart until it's ~12 hours from becoming a hurricane.

[Category5Kaiju]

12Z CMC with hardly anything, loop below. Might be a one-off GFS run, let’s see the Euro:

https://i.postimg.cc/HxdPZv4f/gem-z850-vort-eatl-fh0-156.gif

Like it’s gonna show anything. Even the ensembles have a better chance of showing development, and they were pretty dead at 00z.

The Euro is only going to show the system as nothing more than a mouse fart until it's ~12 hours from becoming a hurricane.

From my understanding the Euro has consistently done this with major storms like Dorian and Laura; did not show them to be potent systems until they were on the verge of becoming potent systems.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

A small but well-defined area of low pressure located over the
tropical Atlantic about a thousand miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to produce limited shower activity. Environmental
conditions are expected to become a little more favorable for
gradual development over the next several days, and this system
could become a tropical depression by the middle of next week.
The system is forecast to drift toward the west-southwest or west
during the next couple of days, and then move a little faster
toward the west-northwest early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Category5Kaiju]

Code orange folks!

[captainbarbossa19]

12z GFS has this entering the Caribbean and making a direct hit on Puerto Rico next Friday. Looks like it's a minimum hurricane, but the trend is more west now.

[captainbarbossa19]

12z GFS has this entering the Caribbean and making a direct hit on Puerto Rico next Friday. Looks like it's a minimum hurricane, but the trend is more west now.

https://i.imgur.com/OmsHIxL.png

Also, what is creepy about this track is that it passes very close to Dominica before hitting Puerto Rico. The track of this is very similar to a certain monster hurricane a few years ago. Hopefully nothing like that happens.

[Stormybajan]

12z GFS has this entering the Caribbean and making a direct hit on Puerto Rico next Friday. Looks like it's a minimum hurricane, but the trend is more west now.

https://i.imgur.com/OmsHIxL.png

Also, before that, 12z gfs has this hitting Guadeloupe and Dominica as a tiny 984 mb hurricane 5 days from now, going to need more support and consistency for me to believe that

[captainbarbossa19]

12z GFS has this entering the Caribbean and making a direct hit on Puerto Rico next Friday. Looks like it's a minimum hurricane, but the trend is more west now.

https://i.imgur.com/OmsHIxL.png

Also, before that, 12z gfs has this hitting Guadeloupe and Dominica as a tiny 984 mb hurricane 5 days from now, going to need more support and consistency for me to believe that

Right. Looking at satellite though, I would not be surprised to see this a depression tomorrow. It has a good circulation. It just needs to build and maintain convection for a period of time now.

[ElectricStorm]

I think this is the one out of the 3 that develops. I may be wrong, but I think we'll see Fred out of this.

[captainbarbossa19]

I think this is the one out of the 3 that develops. I may be wrong, but I think we'll see Fred out of this.

I agree. The vorticity is there. It just needs convection and it can get going. There are not a lot of negative obstacles in its way either. I think many models are forgetting that we are not in mid-July anymore. Early August has produced storms before and it can do it again.

[aspen]

I think this is the one out of the 3 that develops. I may be wrong, but I think we'll see Fred out of this.

I agree. The vorticity is there. It just needs convection and it can get going. There are not a lot of negative obstacles in its way either. I think many models are forgetting that we are not in mid-July anymore. Early August has produced storms before and it can do it again.

Yeah the circulation is quite apparent on satellite imagery, but it needs to produce convection to tighten it and keep it from dissipating. It’s in a much better starting status than the other two waves and has more time before running into the islands.

[captainbarbossa19]

I think this is the one out of the 3 that develops. I may be wrong, but I think we'll see Fred out of this.

I agree. The vorticity is there. It just needs convection and it can get going. There are not a lot of negative obstacles in its way either. I think many models are forgetting that we are not in mid-July anymore. Early August has produced storms before and it can do it again.

Yeah the circulation is quite apparent on satellite imagery, but it needs to produce convection to tighten it and keep it from dissipating. It’s in a much better starting status than the other two waves and has more time before running into the islands.

The Euro wants to kill the vorticity though. I'll believe it when I see it.

[Category5Kaiju]

I agree. The vorticity is there. It just needs convection and it can get going. There are not a lot of negative obstacles in its way either. I think many models are forgetting that we are not in mid-July anymore. Early August has produced storms before and it can do it again.

Yeah the circulation is quite apparent on satellite imagery, but it needs to produce convection to tighten it and keep it from dissipating. It’s in a much better starting status than the other two waves and has more time before running into the islands.

The Euro wants to kill the vorticity though. I'll believe it when I see it.

Yeah idk about that either, unless it really shreds itself on Hispaniola, but future track is very uncertain now, so I will wait and see

[AtlanticWind]

Should be an Invest today , I would think

[InfernoFlameCat]

Nice little swirl. Kinda looks like a remnant low though. Fire up little guy!

[aspen]

12z HWRF-P develops this by early Wednesday and has it peak as a 994 mbar mid-grade TS. It starts gaining latitude earlier and recurves further to the east than on the GFS, and starts weakening on Thursday due to shear.

[captainbarbossa19]

12z HWRF-P develops this by early Wednesday and has it peak as a 994 mbar mid-grade TS. It starts gaining latitude earlier and recurves further to the east than on the GFS, and starts weakening on Thursday due to shear.

That's the wave to the east of this one (92L). This one is not being modeled yet by the hurricane models.

[cycloneye]

Invest 93L is up