#25 Postby aspen » Sat Aug 07, 2021 4:45 pm
wwizard wrote:aspen wrote:The first SHIPS forecast is quite aggressive, bringing this to 70-75 kt by 120hr. Seems like the environment is solidly favorable, with low to moderate shear, SSTs around 28C coming up, and acceptable levels of atmospheric moisture. Already having a good spin means it’s in a far better starting point than 92L, and it just needs to generate some consistent convection. Let’s see if Dmax is enough to do the trick.
When is SHIPS ever not aggressive?
This first SHIPS run is aggressive in comparison to that for the disturbance that is now Kevin, and IIRC, it’s the most aggressive Atlantic run this season so far. I’m not saying 93L will definitely peak as an 85 kt Cat 2 in a week, but it’s suggesting it has potential if it can get itself together.
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