Low Pressure east of Windward Islands (Is Invest 94L)

[aspen]

I would focus more on this system. the other two may also develop but this is in a better environemnt.


adding to that...

the trend today and this afternoon have been a rapid organization in the low levels with visible showing a distinct vort max which has now started producing deep convection over it and in some proto bands around it.

HIgher moisture and lower shear than 92L and 93L

This should be 94L very soon.

If soon-to-be-94L develops quicker than anticipated, wouldn’t that mean it gets a little further north? It could miss some of the islands if that happens.

[Aric Dunn]

I would focus more on this system. the other two may also develop but this is in a better environemnt.


adding to that...

the trend today and this afternoon have been a rapid organization in the low levels with visible showing a distinct vort max which has now started producing deep convection over it and in some proto bands around it.

HIgher moisture and lower shear than 92L and 93L

This should be 94L very soon.

If soon-to-be-94L develops quicker than anticipated, wouldn’t that mean it gets a little further north? It could miss some of the islands if that happens.

Looks as though the mid level ridging is a little stronger and farther west. so a stronger system may stay more wnw for longer.

[Blown Away]

I wish they would tag this wave as invest.

[ElectricStorm]

I feel like the development odds should be more than 10%. But we'll see what NHC goes with. This might be able to develop further west.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A surface trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic several
hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. Some gradual
development of this system is possible while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, reaching portions of the Lesser
Antilles late Monday and then moving across the eastern Caribbean
Sea and Greater Antilles through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Category5Kaiju]

Just checked the latest CMC run, and it looks like it wants this system to actually traverse the Northern Caribbean Sea and then become a healthy TC that hits TX or LA. Interesting.

[Nimbus]

Thread hasn't been locked yet so the models don't need to decide where this will go.
Caribbean runner or threat to the islands?

[Nimbus]

I would focus more on this system. the other two may also develop but this is in a better environemnt.


adding to that...

the trend today and this afternoon have been a rapid organization in the low levels with visible showing a distinct vort max which has now started producing deep convection over it and in some proto bands around it.

HIgher moisture and lower shear than 92L and 93L

This should be 94L very soon.

If soon-to-be-94L develops quicker than anticipated, wouldn’t that mean it gets a little further north? It could miss some of the islands if that happens.

CMC has this near the Yucatan as a weak system in about a week, Aric said the ridging is stronger than modeled but an early spin up and stronger storm will mean a threat to the islands. 94L modeling is probably delayed till we get a better handle on initialization.

[AtlanticWind]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpg. lower right

Convection increasing.

[Blown Away]

GFS, ICON, and NAVGEM all develop this TW into at least a modest TS to hurricane... 92L & 93L have less model support... Let’s get 94L going NHC!!!

[cycloneye]

18z Euro stronger.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1424168667777011714

[DorkyMcDorkface]

GFS, ICON, and NAVGEM all develop this TW into at least a modest TS to hurricane... 92L & 93L have less model support... Let’s get 94L going NHC!!!

You can add the 18z Euro to that list.

[aspen]

18z Euro stronger.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1424168667777011714

A smaller storm isn’t always a good thing. Like we saw with Elsa, it can very quickly spin up and/or spin down, and with August climatology on 94L’s side, spinning up could make this much more dangerous.

[Aric Dunn]

people need to look at the real world every so often to see if their model hugging is correct or not....

the trends today with this system from very early morning were quite clear.

[AtlanticWind]

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

If you zoom in looks like some evidence of banding on the east side.

[SFLcane]

people need to look at the real world every so often to see if their model hugging is correct or not....

the trends today with this system from very early morning were quite clear.

Totally agree with you here.

We’re is 94L???

[SFLcane]

[Woofde]

This wave is moving into an area of lower shear too. We've been bouncing around between the various waves, but this may be the one to watch.

Sent from my SM-G988U1 using Tapatalk

[Stormybajan]

https://i.postimg.cc/hGvpHBsh/463-D5-E99-E79-F-4973-B6-C0-5-D73632-BF91-A.gif

Very very surprised this isnt 94L at 00z, its looking better concentrated and I am getting more and more interested and so are the models

[ElectricStorm]

I'm expecting the odds of development to shoot up pretty soon. Pretty good chance we get a named storm out of this. Whether that's Fred or Grace remains to be seen. I think there's a chance both this one and 93L develop