Low Pressure east of Windward Islands (Is Invest 94L)

[Cpv17]

https://i.postimg.cc/hGvpHBsh/463-D5-E99-E79-F-4973-B6-C0-5-D73632-BF91-A.gif

Dang. That’s a healthy looking wave.

[SFLcane]

This wave is moving into an area of lower shear too. We've been bouncing around between the various waves, but this may be the one to watch. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210808/fe8b30f387491f7e1f3ea4fb2fa8ca93.jpg

Sent from my SM-G988U1 using Tapatalk

Nhc did mention this at 8pm TWO. We will see this one could sneak up on us.

For now give me 94L!

[SFLcane]

But yikes…

[toad strangler]

people need to look at the real world every so often to see if their model hugging is correct or not....

the trends today with this system from very early morning were quite clear.

Isn't this the TRUTH. The calendar demands that waves in this kind of position get the utmost respect in AUGUST. No matter what the very fallible models say.

[Category5Kaiju]

But yikes…

https://i.postimg.cc/x8wwddss/82014-B98-0-C21-49-EA-BB34-EFF68-A2-A6-A4-F.jpg

Looks pretty shielded from the dry air to the north for now

[SFLcane]

[Woofde]

But yikes…

If shear stays low that pocket of moisture might be just enough to keep the dry air from infiltrating. It will really depend on how it's structure evolves.

Sent from my SM-G988U1 using Tapatalk

[Woofde]

I do wonder if this looking better and stronger has implications on 93L and vice versa. Both are starting to pulse up some convection.

Sent from my SM-G988U1 using Tapatalk

[floridasun78]

so you think one that one ahead is going higher 20 chance and 93l and become 94l?

[AtlanticWind]

so you think one that one ahead is going higher 20 chance and 93l and become 94l?

Looks likely should be 94 L by morning , and chances of formation likely will rise to at least 30% by next update.

[Aric Dunn]

ASCAT B caught the edge of it. about 2 hours ago.

currently that would put the center right under that ball of convection.. seems to be on its way.

[Category5Kaiju]

It is a race between soon to be 94L and 93L to see who becomes Fred, but it looks like this wave might have an edge

[Aric Dunn]

ASCAT A caught it about an hour earlier than ASCAT B . .. looking like its on its way. may have been a reformation between the two. which is normal during this stage.

[AtlanticWind]

ASCAT A caught it about an hour earlier than ASCAT B . .. looking like its on its way.

https://i.ibb.co/gt3Mf9r/Capture.png

Wow, sure does

[SFLcane]

ASCAT A caught it about an hour earlier than ASCAT B . .. looking like its on its way. may have been a reformation between the two. which is normal during this stage.

https://i.ibb.co/gt3Mf9r/Capture.png

Is the one on top A or B?

[Aric Dunn]

ASCAT A caught it about an hour earlier than ASCAT B . .. looking like its on its way. may have been a reformation between the two. which is normal during this stage.

https://i.ibb.co/gt3Mf9r/Capture.png

Is the one on top A or B?

first one is B

[SFLcane]

Folks we have ourselves a closed circulation but it’s still kinda weak. Convection needs to persist but it’s on its way as aric mentioned.

[Woofde]

Closed circulation with convection and some model support. When will they designate this as an invest?

Sent from my SM-G988U1 using Tapatalk

[SFLcane]

Closed circulation with convection and some model support. When will they designate this as an invest?

Sent from my SM-G988U1 using Tapatalk

Overnight more then likely. Again those wind barbs are still on the weak side but if it can fire convection it might be on its way.

Icon

[aspen]

Funny how the disturbance that has yet to be tagged as an invest seems to be way closer to developing than either of the currently tagged invests lol