Low Pressure east of Windward Islands (Is Invest 94L)

[Stormybajan]

Funny how the disturbance that has yet to be tagged as an invest seems to be way closer to developing than either of the currently tagged invests lol

Lol it is funny, the wave is going to give nhc no choice but to increase chances again and give it 94L at 6z

[AtlanticWind]

gfs coming in a little weaker

[Cat5James]

00Z ICON brings it up the spine of FL next Sunday

[Aric Dunn]

going to be a couple cycles before models really get the recent data ingested.

[AtlanticWind]

going to be a couple cycles before models really get the recent data ingested.

Models havent done particularly well on genesis the last few years anyway.

[ElectricStorm]

Would be nice to get some HMON/HWRF runs for this. Hopefully it's tagged at 6z

[Jr0d]

The ICON is once again taking it over the Greater Antilles and South Florida/the Keys as a storm. Obviously not a trusted model and has it flip flops but it has consistently taken this path for days now...though sometimes tough to tell if it is this wave or 93L.

I agree that unless it goes poof overnight(highly unlikely)this will officially be an invest by 8am/12Z.

[AtlanticWind]

Gfs headed for DR , what path it eventually takes will have a big impact on its potential strength.

[Category5Kaiju]

This sort of gives me vibes of early stage Laura where we were all biting our nails trying to find out if Hispaniola would shred the system to nothingness or it it would dodge the island enough to remain over water and strengthen

[captainbarbossa19]

This sort of gives me vibes of early stage Laura where we were all biting our nails trying to find out if Hispaniola would shred the system to nothingness or it it would dodge the island enough to remain over water and strengthen

What I specifically remember about Laura last year was that she was supposed to pass north of Hispaniola, but instead passed on its southern side. I will not be surprised if models are way off about this system either.

[Cat5James]

This sort of gives me vibes of early stage Laura where we were all biting our nails trying to find out if Hispaniola would shred the system to nothingness or it it would dodge the island enough to remain over water and strengthen

What I specifically remember about Laura last year was that she was supposed to pass north of Hispaniola, but instead passed on its southern side. I will not be surprised if models are way off about this system either.

Models were way off with Dorian within 24 hours showing the storm pass west of PR when it wound up passing East... would not be surprised to see such errors once again.

[captainbarbossa19]

Not as strong as 93L yet, but not far behind.

[sma10]

Ukmet also now on for development for the first time. Takes a similar ICON track to around the FL straits

[Category5Kaiju]

I know shear maps are transient, but the Florida Strait and Gulf now are very favorable shear-wise. Assuming a moist environment, slow speed, etc. otherwise, we definitely do not want something in that region.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS shows this hitting The NC/VA border as a hurricane in 11 days, I think that this will end up farther west in the end though due to model bias in the past of recurving too soon on the models

[AtlanticWind]

Ukmet also now on for development for the first time. Takes a similar ICON track to around the FL straits

What strength?

[Kingarabian]

Ukmet also now on for development for the first time. Takes a similar ICON track to around the FL straits

What strength?

Very weak but I would put very little stock in individual model intensity forecasts. It's best to just track these in live times and see whether they become a TS or not.

[Stormybajan]

Knowing how cautious the NHC are, I think they only raise development chances of this western wave to 20-30 from 10-20 at 8 and 93L most likely will be increased to 30-40 im not on the development boat for either disturbance yet but they are doing better than I expected

[sma10]

Ukmet also now on for development for the first time. Takes a similar ICON track to around the FL straits

What strength?

Very weak but I would put very little stock in individual model intensity forecasts. It's best to just track these in live times and see whether they become a TS or not.

Agreed. Especially prior to genesis. Remember last year - according to global models virtually no TC's would have developed, let alone 30.

[AtlanticWind]

20/30 on the 2am update