Low Pressure east of Windward Islands (Is Invest 94L)

[AtlanticWind]

An area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the tropical Atlantic several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. Some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, reaching portions of the Lesser Antilles late Monday and then moving across the eastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles through the middle of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch

2 AM Tropical Outlook

[AtlanticWind]

HWRF pretty strong on 93L , would love to see a run on future 94L here.

[Fego]

Euro 00z (72H)

[Blown Away]

00z EURO... Still mostly weak, but the vorticity is stronger than previous runs... Through NE Caribbean, brushes PR, through SE Bahamas, and into SFL in 6 days...

[AtlanticWind]

I have been toying with a point system with potential systems using models and sat apperance .

As of 18z I would give this a 40 percent chance of development to at least a TD within 72 hours.

Again this is just something I am playing with and still refining.

I dont think the NHC is going to be calling me for advice

Now I am up to 50 % at 00z.

[cane5]

Looks to me there is a strong high pressure system for early August that seems to want keep all of these storms on a west to NW track and weaker troughs in the US to carry them north.

[Shell Mound]

This is still better organised structurally than 93L. Convection has persisted, shear is lower, and it is farther southwest, so PWATs are higher in the vicinity. Outflow is better established in all quadrants than that of 93L, which is currently encountering strong northerly shear. Interestingly, the most recent ECMWF run closes off this system over/near the islands, yet fails to develop 93L at all. This is a potentially disquieting sign for the Bahamas and Florida, given that 93L would be more likely to curve northward, as a trough erodes the western edge of the WAR. Given current satellite trends and the upcoming environment, I would give this at least a 50% chance of development within the next five days, if not higher. The Leeward Islands should be ready for at least a moderate TS, given that this system will not have to deal with strong trades, unlike Elsa.

[Shell Mound]

More EC members now develop this than 93L. The 00Z suite is slightly more bullish than yesterday’s 12Z. Nevertheless, most members are weak and/or short-lived. The operational ECMWF shows this system affecting South Florida early on 14 August. Based on HURDAT, since 1851 six hurricanes have made landfall on South Florida as hurricanes during the month of August. Of these, the earliest struck on 16 August 1888, making landfall as a strong Category 3 with MSW of 110 kt. So based on climatology 14 August is still a bit early for a hurricane to affect South Florida.

[Nimbus]

The TUTT is quite far north but there is still shear streaming north off South America.
Further west you can see the replacement ridging moving off the coast.
Still rotation with this system and a closed low could be evident with the next diurnal convective cycle.
Might be western Caribbean before development as the CMC was projecting if the shear interferes though.

[Shell Mound]

93L is inadvertently providing this system some protection from SAL and also reducing the low-level background flow, thereby mildly boosting LL vorticity.


On another note, the 06Z EPS has six members showing a system just north of Hispaniola, compared to three in yesterday’s 18Z cycle. The trend goes on.

[GCANE]

This one looks interesting to me in terms of the forecasted synoptic setup, particularly for the Bahamas.
Forecast showing TPW amplification going into a UL High driven by two juxtapositioned UL Lows.



Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
Sun, 08 Aug 2021 05:31:24 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 080531
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021

An area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the tropical Atlantic several hundred miles east
of the Windward Islands. Some gradual development of this system is
possible while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, reaching
portions of the Lesser Antilles late Monday and then moving across
the eastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles through the middle of
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[GCANE]

NAVGEM, CMC, UKMET all pretty aggressive warm-core development in the Bahamas

[aspen]

It’s not looking quite as good as it did last night.

[GCANE]

Keep an eye on a forecasted trof in the Midwest / MS Valley as this approaches FL

[SFLcane]

Code Orange

[Shell Mound]

Code Orange

1. An area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the tropical Atlantic several hundred miles east
of the Windward Islands. Environmental conditions are expected
to be favorable to support some gradual development, and this
system could become a tropical depression while it moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to
reach portions of the Lesser Antilles late Monday and then move
across the eastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles through the
middle of this week. Interests in those areas should monitor the
progress of this system, as it could bring locally heavy rainfall
and gusty winds to portions of that area.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[GCANE]

With this flareup starting and strong model support, I wouldn't be surprised if they flip the Invest switch.

restaurants open on easter in wilmington nc

[GCANE]

No doubt a vortical hot tower along a dryline axis.

delivery monkey junction

[Stormybajan]

No doubt a vortical hot tower along a dryline axis.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/7YQpKRRd/37911966-1.gif [/url]delivery monkey junction

Definitely not looking as good as it did lastnight, however lets see what this hot tower does. I'm also interested with this still being "weak" how it will travel north to Guadeloupe given how low it is right now, I think its going to be more of a Martinque and St.Lucia problem

[gatorcane]

Looks like a lot of wind shear near Florida and over the Bahamas. Best chances for development might be further north if it makes it north of the Bahamas and once past Florida: