2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[Stormybajan]

No deviation in anticipated schedule as of yet

http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1416129137698299904?s=20

Based on this, looks like we may have to wait until August 7th for activity to get going again. Elsa formed July 1st so this will be a massive break..even longer than I first thought

Said this 3 weeks ago, that activity would resume today..looks like even this was too early to my surprise

[AlphaToOmega]

No deviation in anticipated schedule as of yet

http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1416129137698299904?s=20

Based on this, looks like we may have to wait until August 7th for activity to get going again. Elsa formed July 1st so this will be a massive break..even longer than I first thought

Said this 3 weeks ago, that activity would resume today..looks like even this was too early to my surprise

You were not wrong. There are three MDR disturbances being monitored by the NHC. One of these is bound to form.

[Category5Kaiju]

No deviation in anticipated schedule as of yet

http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1416129137698299904?s=20

Based on this, looks like we may have to wait until August 7th for activity to get going again. Elsa formed July 1st so this will be a massive break..even longer than I first thought

Said this 3 weeks ago, that activity would resume today..looks like even this was too early to my surprise

I mean, we have an orange and two lemons (with models strongly hinting at potential Fred soon, especially from the orange AOI), so I would say you guessed well

[Steve]

It’s still the MJO

Months ago some of us were discussing how big of an indicator and factor the MJO might be for this year. More than usual IMHO. We have those occasional seasons where it seems to be a primary contributor to timing of bursts and development. So far we have seen a couple of developments in the favorable phases and a long lull in the unfavorable ones. Upward motion will peak this week and still be around the W ATL next week. Looks like we are going to be in Phase 2 for several of the next days.

[captainbarbossa19]

Not a cloud out there. Season Cancelled.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.imgur.com/MbyQCKK.jpg

Not a cloud out there. Season Cancelled.

That's right! 2013 redux!!

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://i.imgur.com/MbyQCKK.jpg

Not a cloud out there. Season Cancelled.

That's right! 2013 redux!!

The waves can't even make it off Africa!

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1424140338072100866



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1424142980588261376



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1424145753585422341

[GCANE]

Looks like the three waves that came off Africa could be it for this week.
The African Easterly Jet is building back in the next couple days and will be in full force end of week.

Interesting to see if something develops in the Bahamas mid to end of week.
Forecast is for high CAPE and an UL High driven by two ULLs NE and NW of the Bahamas.
A very nice ventilation setup.

The wave west of 93L could be the one.
Nice amplification of TPW in the forecast.

[Shell Mound]

If there is still no sign of substantial activity come Dr. Gray’s “bell-ringing” date of 20 August, then I would expect much lower numbers and seasonal ACE.

[Teban54]

If there is still no sign of substantial activity come Dr. Gray’s “bell-ringing” date of 20 August, then I would expect much lower numbers and seasonal ACE.

There was pretty much no substantial activity on August 20 itself and before that date (aside from mostly TS and a few weak/OTS hurricanes) in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, and we all know how those years turned out.

[MarioProtVI]

If there is still no sign of substantial activity come Dr. Gray’s “bell-ringing” date of 20 August, then I would expect much lower numbers and seasonal ACE.

Can’t help but laugh at how that’s almost certainly gonna age poorly. As said above 2017–20 had same thing occur and look how they turned out.

[Category5Kaiju]

If there is still no sign of substantial activity come Dr. Gray’s “bell-ringing” date of 20 August, then I would expect much lower numbers and seasonal ACE.

Can’t help but laugh at how that’s almost certainly gonna age poorly. As said above 2017–20 had same thing occur and look how they turned out.

I would have to agree. Again, what makes 2021 any different from those years? In recent years we have not had our first major until after the 20th, and recent years have featured decently backloaded seasons, so I expect 2021 to follow that trend.

[Shell Mound]

If there is still no sign of substantial activity come Dr. Gray’s “bell-ringing” date of 20 August, then I would expect much lower numbers and seasonal ACE.

There was pretty much no substantial activity on August 20 itself and before that date (aside from mostly TS and a few weak/OTS hurricanes) in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, and we all know how those years turned out.

Most hyperactive seasons either had more activity earlier in August or featured a cluster of storms developing within a few days of 20 August (or both). The former:

.........Year............# TS 1–19 August

• 1969............3
• 1886............2
• 1932............1
• 2003............1
• 2020............2
• 1887............2
• 1950............2
• 2017............3
• 2004............4
• 1995............2
• 1896............4
• 2005............2
• 1933............2

The latter:

• 1906: 22 August
• 2010: 21 August
• 1996: 19 August
• 1964: 20 August
• 1999: 18 August
• 1878: 19 August
• 1998: 19 August
• 1926: 20 August

1961 was an exception, in that it did not feature a single NS during August, yet ended up as a hyperactive season nonetheless. September 1961 was quite active.

I reiterate: if we do not see a NS on or before 20 August and/or there is no sign of a change by that date, then I would expect a much less active year than forecast.

[AlphaToOmega]

Look: there are still twelve days until August 20. A storm could develop, be it in the MDR, the Gulf of Mexico, or the subtropics.

[Teban54]

If there is still no sign of substantial activity come Dr. Gray’s “bell-ringing” date of 20 August, then I would expect much lower numbers and seasonal ACE.

There was pretty much no substantial activity on August 20 itself and before that date (aside from mostly TS and a few weak/OTS hurricanes) in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, and we all know how those years turned out.

Most hyperactive seasons either had more activity earlier in August or featured a cluster of storms developing within a few days of 20 August (or both). The former:

.........Year............# TS 1–19 August

• 1969............3
• 1886............2
• 1932............1
• 2003............1
• 2020............2
• 1887............2
• 1950............2
• 2017............3
• 2004............4
• 1995............2
• 1896............4
• 2005............2
• 1933............2

The latter:

• 1906: 22 August
• 2010: 21 August
• 1996: 19 August
• 1964: 20 August
• 1999: 18 August
• 1878: 19 August
• 1998: 19 August
• 1926: 20 August

1961 was an exception, in that it did not feature a single NS during August, yet ended up as a hyperactive season nonetheless. September 1961 was quite active.

I reiterate: if we do not see a NS on or before 20 August and/or there is no sign of a change by that date, then I would expect a much less active year than forecast.

1. We're not even past August 20 yet. The three waves currently active (especially 93L and 94L) have a chance to develop, and who knows how many more potential systems may be in that position before August 20.

Plus, just because waves might struggle before August 20 doesn't mean they will struggle afterwards. The reason why most of July and early August were so quiet was the perfect combination of suppressive CCKW and strong MJO, and the latter still has some impacts on the Atlantic. Models suggest they will change soon and the background state will be far more favorable in late August and at least early September.

2. I don't think we have a reliable way of telling whether there's a "sign of a change" at any date. Models are only tools and not crystal balls, and last year really showed how bad they can be at detecting genesis.

Also, recall that on August 19, 2019, there was pretty much nothing in the entire Atlantic and no model storms. Then Chantal formed out of nowhere on August 20, Dorian formed a few days later and the rest is history. If forecasting can be so hard one day out, I'm not sure how people can call a season a bust when we're still 12 days away from the start of the typical climatological peak.

3. There are no requirements such as "XX number of tropical storms and YY number of hurricanes must form between date A and date B" for a season to be hyperactive. Sometimes such indicators are indeed correlated with activity, but not meeting these criteria doesn't close the doors to an impressive and impactful season. Every season is unique and has its own favorable periods.

Remember last year before Gonzalo, when people were ready to call the hyperactive forecasts a bust unless an MDR storm forms in July? 2004 didn't even have Alex (which was not an MDR system) until July 31, yet that season is even more impressive ACE-wise than 2020. I don't know how "at least 1 TS must form between August 1 and August 22" is any different from that.

[Category5Kaiju]

Here’s a simple but what I think to be pretty good tool you could use when trying to have an idea of how active the Atlantic could get even before August 20. It’s not a foolproof method that is accurate every year as each year is different, but it is reliable in many recent past years the way I see it. Just look at how the WPAC and EPAC are doing. It’s that simple. In a given year at least one of the three basins dominates, and as of now the WPAC has been producing slop with the exception of Surigae, and the EPAC while active has yet to produce a second MH, most of its accumulated ACE being the result of Felicia and with many short, weak lived storms occurring. In other words, there are definitely years where the WPAC and EPAC have been performing very well by now, and if observations are to be relied on then as of now I just don’t see how the WPAC and EPAC are performing at their most optimal, let alone during a -ENSO year. This is why I am confident that the Atlantic will take over during latter August into October/November, and if I am wrong and all three basins underperform, then I will be very stunned to say the least.

[aspen]

If 2021 does end up being a bust with far less storms than expected and things continue to struggle into September, then there must be some unknown factor that influences Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. We have a developing Nina, a positive MJO phase, a strong WAM, a record-wet Africa, near to above-average SSTs, and an Atlantic Niño, yet the basin has yet to produce any TC since July 1st. What factor beyond the suppressive MJO phase could be responsible for limiting the Atlantic when all other factors point towards a favored Atlantic?

This will probably be evaporated if Fred forms from 93L or 94L in a few days, but neither of those disturbances are looking too hot right now.

[toad strangler]

If 2021 does end up being a bust with far less storms than expected and things continue to struggle into September, then there must be some unknown factor that influences Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. We have a developing Nina, a positive MJO phase, a strong WAM, a record-wet Africa, near to above-average SSTs, and an Atlantic Niño, yet the basin has yet to produce any TC since July 1st. What factor beyond the suppressive MJO phase could be responsible for limiting the Atlantic when all other factors point towards a favored Atlantic?

This will probably be evaporated if Fred forms from 93L or 94L in a few days, but neither of those disturbances are looking too hot right now.

It’s 8/8

[Stormybajan]

If 2021 does end up being a bust with far less storms than expected and things continue to struggle into September, then there must be some unknown factor that influences Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. We have a developing Nina, a positive MJO phase, a strong WAM, a record-wet Africa, near to above-average SSTs, and an Atlantic Niño, yet the basin has yet to produce any TC since July 1st. What factor beyond the suppressive MJO phase could be responsible for limiting the Atlantic when all other factors point towards a favored Atlantic?

This will probably be evaporated if Fred forms from 93L or 94L in a few days, but neither of those disturbances are looking too hot right now.

I'm waiting until August 20th for the Atlantic to really wake up, if nothing looks imminent by then, my numbers will need to be lowered. Right now its still a watch and see thing until then but I will say I am surprised its gotten to this point without development especially after having the 2nd earliest MDR hurricane on record. Also dont count out 94L yet its still looks decent to be a depression just east of the islands imo