ATL: FRED - Models

[cycloneye]

Only model runs here.

[NDG]

12z SHIPS

[NDG]

[SFLcane]

12z SHIPS

https://i.imgur.com/I0jygY7.gif

1-2 punch potentially for South Florida whether it’s a tc or a batch of showers who knows lol.

[gatorcane]

Lots of shear ahead across the Bahamas according to the GFS:

[NDG]

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET does develop this into a TD in the E Caribbean Tuesday but it never gets stronger. The UKMET fwiw can be conservatively weak. So, we’ll see. This is just guidance.


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 17.3N 63.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.08.2021 60 17.3N 63.3W 1013 28
0000UTC 11.08.2021 72 18.7N 66.3W 1012 27
1200UTC 11.08.2021 84 19.6N 69.0W 1011 28
0000UTC 12.08.2021 96 20.7N 71.5W 1011 29
1200UTC 12.08.2021 108 21.7N 74.0W 1012 26
0000UTC 13.08.2021 120 22.4N 76.2W 1012 25
1200UTC 13.08.2021 132 23.2N 78.0W 1013 22
0000UTC 14.08.2021 144 23.9N 80.0W 1013 26

[Spacecoast]

0z ECMF Ensembles..
Thin line is ensemble mean,
Thick line (ECMF) is operational

[AlphaToOmega]

[Blown Away]

12z GFS = Moderate rain event at best through 6 days...

[SFLcane]

12z GFS = Moderate rain event at best through 6 days...

1-2 punch of some rain.

[NDG]

The 12z GFS is trending towards the Euro with the ULL pushing towards the GOM by the time 94L gets close to SE FL, something to keep an eye on.

[NDG]

So far through 18 hrs 12z HWRF shows the dry air to the NW of 94L keep pushing west out of the way of 94L.

[Shell Mound]

So far through 18 hrs 12z HWRF shows the dry air to the NW of 94L keep pushing west out of the way of 94L.

https://i.imgur.com/2ZDFasQ.png

Given the current level of disorganisation, this seems highly unlikely. 94L’s circulation is quite tilted with height, so the HWRF’s solution seems unrealistic.

[NDG]

So far through 18 hrs 12z HWRF shows the dry air to the NW of 94L keep pushing west out of the way of 94L.

https://i.imgur.com/2ZDFasQ.png

https://i.ibb.co/C694jJM/Hurricane-1.png
Given the current level of disorganisation, this seems highly unlikely. 94L’s circulation is quite tilted with height, so the HWRF’s solution seems unrealistic.

But if you look at the HWRF it clearly shows the mid level circulation to the south but becoming stacked by tomorrow night thus intensification starting by then.

[Shell Mound]

So far through 18 hrs 12z HWRF shows the dry air to the NW of 94L keep pushing west out of the way of 94L.

https://i.imgur.com/2ZDFasQ.png

https://i.ibb.co/C694jJM/Hurricane-1.png
Given the current level of disorganisation, this seems highly unlikely. 94L’s circulation is quite tilted with height, so the HWRF’s solution seems unrealistic.

But if you look at the HWRF it clearly shows the mid level circulation to the south but becoming stacked by tomorrow night thus intensification starting by then.

Even so, the HWRF is too slow and deep within the next few days. Currently 94L is moving faster than the HWRF indicates. Yet HWRF shows RI just N of Martinique.

[aspen]

So far through 18 hrs 12z HWRF shows the dry air to the NW of 94L keep pushing west out of the way of 94L.

https://i.imgur.com/2ZDFasQ.png

https://i.ibb.co/C694jJM/Hurricane-1.png
Given the current level of disorganisation, this seems highly unlikely. 94L’s circulation is quite tilted with height, so the HWRF’s solution seems unrealistic.

To be fair, the HWRF doesn’t show a closed circulation until 30hr and the MLC/LLC aren’t stacked until it’s already passing through the islands at 45hr. It’s not like it’s showing a stacked system within 24-30 hours.

[NDG]

https://i.ibb.co/C694jJM/Hurricane-1.png
Given the current level of disorganisation, this seems highly unlikely. 94L’s circulation is quite tilted with height, so the HWRF’s solution seems unrealistic.

But if you look at the HWRF it clearly shows the mid level circulation to the south but becoming stacked by tomorrow night thus intensification starting by then.

Even so, the HWRF is too slow and deep within the next few days. Currently 94L is moving faster than the HWRF indicates. Yet HWRF shows RI just N of Martinique.

Yes, but not by that much, I have the main vorticity near 13N & 54.2W, that' pretty close to what the HWRF shows the elongated vorticity to be at 18z.

[Blown Away]

So far through 18 hrs 12z HWRF shows the dry air to the NW of 94L keep pushing west out of the way of 94L.

https://i.imgur.com/2ZDFasQ.png

https://i.ibb.co/C694jJM/Hurricane-1.png
Given the current level of disorganisation, this seems highly unlikely. 94L’s circulation is quite tilted with height, so the HWRF’s solution seems unrealistic.

Yes HWRF tends to overplay intensity, but seems to be remarkably good with the IR Brightness predictions...

[aspen]

HWRF @72hr has a minimal hurricane heading right for The Shredder. 94L loses some organization after passing between some of the smaller islands, but recovers enough to get this strong.