2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[tolakram]

I still don't understand expectations for the next 10 days. The MJO moves west to east, so conditions will transition from the EPAC to the ATL from west to east. Waves in the Atlantic will struggle to develop until they get into a more favorable environment. That's why I think our next storm will be in the gulf or western Atlantic from one of the waves we're tracking now, rather than way out by Cabo Verde. Amateur opinion, of course.

[Category5Kaiju]

I still don't understand expectations for the next 10 days. The MJO moves west to east, so conditions will transition from the EPAC to the ATL from west to east. Waves in the Atlantic will struggle to develop until they get into a more favorable environment. That's why I think our next storm will be in the gulf or western Atlantic from one of the waves we're tracking now, rather than way out by Cabo Verde. Amateur opinion, of course.

You're not alone, if anything we'll see activity start west and then develop more east as conditions in the east become better. The GoM and WCAR is always supportive of intense storms during the year, it's usually the MDR that is typically plagued by dry Sahara dust that typically needs time to get really going

[chaser1]

I still don't understand expectations for the next 10 days. The MJO moves west to east, so conditions will transition from the EPAC to the ATL from west to east. Waves in the Atlantic will struggle to develop until they get into a more favorable environment. That's why I think our next storm will be in the gulf or western Atlantic from one of the waves we're tracking now, rather than way out by Cabo Verde. Amateur opinion, of course.

Fully agree. Typically seasonal activity transitions from E. Pac to W. Atlantic (barring adverse regional conditions of course). Of course it's not at all unreasonable for this transition to skip past the GOM or W. Caribbean if lacking any draping fronts or active waves. I totally agree that the most likely candidate would be one of the waves being tracked now as they continue to migrate further west and over warmer SST's. 12Z GFS is just now starting to run but I think the 6Z depiction of the well developed low at about 15N and 40W appears to be the leading candidate to eventually be tagged "Fred". My guess is that it won't be long before less stable conditions will then spread further toward the Eastern MDR. More then anything, I'm more focused on the overall long wave pattern, shifting mid level heights changes, and how the 500mb is forecast to orientate itself between the E. CONUS and Central Atlantic in the days/weeks to come. Besides, when it comes to landfall risk assessment, I'm far more focused on where I think a storm may track then how far east a tropical storm may originate.

[AtlanticWind]

The 3 systems in the Atlantic and the models remind of the game with 3 cups and a ball .

The models made us think 92l was the one to devolep and we focused on that one . Wrong.
Than we thought is was the system to the west . Wrong again says the models.
Now they make us think its the one in the middle.

I think were losing all our money on this game

[AnnularCane]

The 3 systems in the Atlantic and the models remind of the game with 3 cups and a ball .

The models made us think 92l was the one to devolep and we focused on that one . Wrong.
Than we thought is was the system to the west . Wrong again says the models.
Now they make us think its the one in the middle.

I think were losing all our money on this game

Only if one were foolish enough to actually bet money on model runs.

[aspen]

The GFS and Euro ensembles show some support for a Caribbean Runner past 200 hours, the same storm that the operational models have occasionally shown. It seems to be from a wave that’ll make splashdown in a few days.

[Aric Dunn]

Not on any models that I can see. but watch the area approaching PR. it has developed a pretty good inverted trough... curvature to it.

something to keep an eye on as it pushes west to wnw.

[cane5]

I still don't understand expectations for the next 10 days. The MJO moves west to east, so conditions will transition from the EPAC to the ATL from west to east. Waves in the Atlantic will struggle to develop until they get into a more favorable environment. That's why I think our next storm will be in the gulf or western Atlantic from one of the waves we're tracking now, rather than way out by Cabo Verde. Amateur opinion, of course.

Just seems like everything this year is ahead of schedule.

[aspen]

12z GEFS ensembles show a low-riding MDR disturbance between 84-120hr, which looks to become that Caribbean Cruiser. Seems like we’ll have yet another wave to watch soon.

[Category5Kaiju]

12z GEFS ensembles show a low-riding MDR disturbance between 84-120hr, which looks to become that Caribbean Cruiser. Seems like we’ll have yet another wave to watch soon.

Looks like our three stooges here (92, 93, and 94L, haha) won't be alone soon...

[captainbarbossa19]

12z GEFS ensembles show a low-riding MDR disturbance between 84-120hr, which looks to become that Caribbean Cruiser. Seems like we’ll have yet another wave to watch soon.

Looks like our three stooges here (92, 93, and 94L, haha) won't be alone soon...

I am thinking that 94L will become Fred eventually. The Caribbean Cruiser will be major hurricane Grace.

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like the 0z GFS loves a Caribbean cruiser system in a week or so

[aspen]

Euro ensembles are very active and show both the potential Caribbean Cruiser, as well as another system from a wave that’ll emerge by late week/early weekend. The GEFS ensembles aren’t as active, but show both systems.

[SoupBone]

06Z GFS shows something heading towards TexMex on August 25th.

[Category5Kaiju]

06Z GFS shows something heading towards TexMex on August 25th.

I think that is actually the giant wave that just exited Africa, it's just that unlike prior runs the system does not develop until it is well into the WCAR.

[aspen]

Long-range 12z GFS shows that new wave as a TC in the Gulf, a wave behind it in the Caribbean, possible subtropical development, and a large wave over the Cabo Verde islands. Seems like there’s lots of potential for development as we head into the middle and final thirds of the month.

[Category5Kaiju]

Yikes, just looked at the most recent GEFS, and it shows a fairly strong ensemble support signal for a system to slam into the Rio Grande/Gulf of Mexico region between TX and Mexico shortly after the August 20th timeframe; some members take it further south while others further north, I seriously am thinking that the wave that just departed Africa is worthy of monitoring

[Cpv17]

Yikes, just looked at the most recent GEFS, and it shows a fairly strong ensemble support signal for a system to slam into the Rio Grande/Gulf of Mexico region between TX and Mexico shortly after the August 20th timeframe; some members take it further south while others further north, I seriously am thinking that the wave that just departed Africa is worthy of monitoring

Yes it is. It’s not getting the attention that it deserves but I imagine that’ll change in a big way in a few days.

[toad strangler]

Yikes, just looked at the most recent GEFS, and it shows a fairly strong ensemble support signal for a system to slam into the Rio Grande/Gulf of Mexico region between TX and Mexico shortly after the August 20th timeframe; some members take it further south while others further north, I seriously am thinking that the wave that just departed Africa is worthy of monitoring

You are talking about GFS end of the run type hours here so it's complete fantasy range to be mentioning an end game for a wave that is still shaking off zebras and lions. That wave is already being discussed and does seem to have potential.... at least I'm pretty sure you mean this one .... viewtopic.php?f=31&t=122069

[Category5Kaiju]

Yikes, just looked at the most recent GEFS, and it shows a fairly strong ensemble support signal for a system to slam into the Rio Grande/Gulf of Mexico region between TX and Mexico shortly after the August 20th timeframe; some members take it further south while others further north, I seriously am thinking that the wave that just departed Africa is worthy of monitoring

You are talking about GFS end of the run type hours here so it's complete fantasy range to be mentioning an end game for a wave that is still shaking off zebras and lions. That wave is already being discussed and does seem to have potential.... at least I'm pretty sure you mean this one .... viewtopic.php?f=31&t=122069

I know things will likely change between now and then, but yeah that wave, it just exited Africa and looks quite robust with some nice spinnage already. I think it won't do much until it is closer to the islands, but I have a hunch that once it enters that region, we'll be monitoring it like a hawk.