2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[Teban54]

Fun but important fact: the last season to feature an impactful major hurricane before mid-August (that is, August 15) was 2005. Ever since then, no season has ever managed to feature a major, impactful hurricane, let alone a major hurricane itself, before August 15. The closest seasons that did this were 2007 and 2009 with Dean and Bill respectively in the August 15-20 timeframe. But after August 20 is when the horse gates really open. I guess it's "stormtracker flashbacks" from 2005, but I think sometimes people have too high of expectations for a given season and take the lack of major hurricanes before August 20 to be a sign of a bust. This is clearly not a safe or accurate mindset to have.

Didn't someone share a tweet earlier that said early August activity has negative correlation with peak season activity according to historical data? The reason mostly being an active early August suggests a favorable MJO at this time, so by peak season a few weeks later the MJO has moved out.

[tolakram]

There's nothing wrong with predicting a slow season. Not that anyone has done anything wrong here, but give everyone space to say what they think. We're going to have another few intense weeks of cancel angst, so let's remember to be friendly.

We don't allow trolling, and usually the difference is pretty clear. Someone using reason and evidence to support their opinion might be horribly biased and not realize it, but they aren't trolling any more than the person convinced this is going to be a hyper active year because of various reasons.

I'm not convinced either way.

[AnnularCane]

The next wave.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1424415647816196105

New thread coming soon?

[Category5Kaiju]

Fun but important fact: the last season to feature an impactful major hurricane before mid-August (that is, August 15) was 2005. Ever since then, no season has ever managed to feature a major, impactful hurricane, let alone a major hurricane itself, before August 15. The closest seasons that did this were 2007 and 2009 with Dean and Bill respectively in the August 15-20 timeframe. But after August 20 is when the horse gates really open. I guess it's "stormtracker flashbacks" from 2005, but I think sometimes people have too high of expectations for a given season and take the lack of major hurricanes before August 20 to be a sign of a bust. This is clearly not a safe or accurate mindset to have.

Didn't someone share a tweet earlier that said early August activity has negative correlation with peak season activity according to historical data? The reason mostly being an active early August suggests a favorable MJO at this time, so by peak season a few weeks later the MJO has moved out.

Might have been Yaakov Cantor, but it’s because typically the MJO is a 30-40 day cycle between active and suppressive, so an active early August would mean a suppressive September and a less active September than if the MJO’s favorable phase were to occur then instead

[aspen]

The next wave.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1424415647816196105

That might be the wave responsible for the Caribbean Cruiser appearing on some of the GFS/Euro OP/ensembles runs over the last few days. The GFS has the precursor wave make splashdown as early as tomorrow, and this is the only wave that could be.

[psyclone]

The good news here is we're going to get a verdict either way very soon.
May = No way
June = Too soon
July = Oh so dry
August = start lookin'
September = we're cookin'...

For weather fanatics it would be nicer if our storms were more evenly distributed but that's not the way it works. I'll be shocked if we don't have at least 3 simultaneous systems at some point this season, probably in September. In the meantime as usual it's hurry up and wait.

[aspen]

I think we should have a thread for the wave about to move off the coast of Africa. It has decent ensemble and operational run support from the GFS, and all of these failed invests might have made the environment ahead of it more favorable.

[toad strangler]

I think we should have a thread for the wave about to move off the coast of Africa. It has decent ensemble and operational run support from the GFS, and all of these failed invests might have made the environment ahead of it more favorable.

You might be premature in declaring “all of these failed invests”

[aspen]

I think we should have a thread for the wave about to move off the coast of Africa. It has decent ensemble and operational run support from the GFS, and all of these failed invests might have made the environment ahead of it more favorable.

You might be premature in declaring “all of these failed invests”

Okay, some failed invests and some waves that may or may not still develop. Even if 94L becomes Fred, it might end up as a sacrificial storm to clear out some dry air near the Lesser Antilles.

[Category5Kaiju]

I think we should have a thread for the wave about to move off the coast of Africa. It has decent ensemble and operational run support from the GFS, and all of these failed invests might have made the environment ahead of it more favorable.

You might be premature in declaring “all of these failed invests”

Okay, some failed invests and some waves that may or may not still develop. Even if 94L becomes Fred, it might end up as a sacrificial storm to clear out some dry air near the Lesser Antilles.

I guess we'll see, but as of now 94L recently had a big blow up, and 93L is about to ride under a SAL plume's trough; I still wouldn't expect anything major out of any system, but I agree that these are likely the precursors to whatever the models have been hinting at later this week. There's still imho a chance we see Fred soon. Now I have zero idea which system will be Fred, although if I had to guess 94L is the most likely candidate.

[toad strangler]

You might be premature in declaring “all of these failed invests”

Okay, some failed invests and some waves that may or may not still develop. Even if 94L becomes Fred, it might end up as a sacrificial storm to clear out some dry air near the Lesser Antilles.

I guess we'll see, but as of now 94L recently had a big blow up, and 93L is about to ride under a SAL plume's trough; I still wouldn't expect anything major out of any system, but I agree that these are likely the precursors to whatever the models have been hinting at later this week. There's still imho a chance we see Fred soon. Now I have zero idea which system will be Fred, although if I had to guess 94L is the most likely candidate.

No guessing needed. Levi Cown flat out said an hour or so ago that 94L is the strongest candidate of these Invests

[Category5Kaiju]

Okay, some failed invests and some waves that may or may not still develop. Even if 94L becomes Fred, it might end up as a sacrificial storm to clear out some dry air near the Lesser Antilles.

I guess we'll see, but as of now 94L recently had a big blow up, and 93L is about to ride under a SAL plume's trough; I still wouldn't expect anything major out of any system, but I agree that these are likely the precursors to whatever the models have been hinting at later this week. There's still imho a chance we see Fred soon. Now I have zero idea which system will be Fred, although if I had to guess 94L is the most likely candidate.

No guessing needed. Levi Cown flat out said an hour or so ago that 94L is the strongest candidate of these Invests

Oh that's coming from Levi Cowan? Then I guess 94L it is

[tolakram]

I'll do what I did starting in 2017 and try and document the date and a brief synopsis of what is going on.

It's August 8th. 3 invests exist with 94L having what appears to be the best chance.

I grabbed a WV loop from 2017, that's a re-developing Harvey entering the Gulf. You can clearly see the TUTT here, the one Irma didn't have a problem with. You can also see all that horribly dry air in the Atlantic. This loop is 7 days before Irma formed.



Here's today's WV loop. I can't find the same scale, if someone knows where to get the scale used in 2017 please let me know.

[AnnularCane]

I'll do what I did starting in 2017 and try and document the date and a brief synopsis of what is going on.

It's August 8th. 3 invests exist with 94L having what appears to be the best chance.

I grabbed a WV loop from 2017, that's a re-developing Harvey entering the Gulf. You can clearly see the TUTT here, the one Irma didn't have a problem with. You can also see all that horribly dry air in the Atlantic. THis loop is 13 days before Irma formed.

https://i.imgur.com/W44nMso.gif

Irma formed on the 30th, so actually seven days.

[tolakram]

I'll do what I did starting in 2017 and try and document the date and a brief synopsis of what is going on.

It's August 8th. 3 invests exist with 94L having what appears to be the best chance.

I grabbed a WV loop from 2017, that's a re-developing Harvey entering the Gulf. You can clearly see the TUTT here, the one Irma didn't have a problem with. You can also see all that horribly dry air in the Atlantic. THis loop is 13 days before Irma formed.

https://i.imgur.com/W44nMso.gif

Irma formed on the 30th, so actually seven days.

Right, I read that date wrong. Corrected.

[WiscoWx02]

MJO about to step up its game while it dances between phases 1 and 2. One heck of an amplification
We'll have to see if this actually materializes and if the eastern Pacific shuts down enough to allow the Atlantic to reach its full potential while it comes through. Figure if Elsa was able to form in early July with the strength of the MJO then, something is definitely on the way now.

[Stormybajan]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ensplume_full.gif

MJO about to step up its game while it dances between phases 1 and 2. One heck of an amplification
We'll have to see if this actually materializes and if the eastern Pacific shuts down enough to allow the Atlantic to reach its full potential while it comes through. Figure if Elsa was able to form in early July with the strength of the MJO then, something is definitely on the way now.

Really is quite the signal, still, I give the Atlantic 7-12 days to wake up (August 15th-20th)

[Woofde]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ensplume_full.gif

MJO about to step up its game while it dances between phases 1 and 2. One heck of an amplification
We'll have to see if this actually materializes and if the eastern Pacific shuts down enough to allow the Atlantic to reach its full potential while it comes through. Figure if Elsa was able to form in early July with the strength of the MJO then, something is definitely on the way now.

Really is quite the signal, still, I give the Atlantic 7-12 days to wake up (August 15th-20th)

That's the usual time it wakes up too. With a positive MJO it could be quite the awakening.

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[Deshaunrob17]

I'll do what I did starting in 2017 and try and document the date and a brief synopsis of what is going on.

It's August 8th. 3 invests exist with 94L having what appears to be the best chance.

I grabbed a WV loop from 2017, that's a re-developing Harvey entering the Gulf. You can clearly see the TUTT here, the one Irma didn't have a problem with. You can also see all that horribly dry air in the Atlantic. This loop is 7 days before Irma formed.

https://i.imgur.com/W44nMso.gif

Here's today's WV loop. I can't find the same scale, if someone knows where to get the scale used in 2017 please let me know.
https://i.imgur.com/pmFDz83.gif

Harvey always amazes me.. Entered the Gulf as a disorganized, elongated mess. Made landfall as 130 mph Cat 4. How the hell did that happen

[Category5Kaiju]

I'll do what I did starting in 2017 and try and document the date and a brief synopsis of what is going on.

It's August 8th. 3 invests exist with 94L having what appears to be the best chance.

I grabbed a WV loop from 2017, that's a re-developing Harvey entering the Gulf. You can clearly see the TUTT here, the one Irma didn't have a problem with. You can also see all that horribly dry air in the Atlantic. This loop is 7 days before Irma formed.

https://i.imgur.com/W44nMso.gif

Here's today's WV loop. I can't find the same scale, if someone knows where to get the scale used in 2017 please let me know.
https://i.imgur.com/pmFDz83.gif

Harvey always amazes me.. Entered the Gulf as a disorganized, elongated mess. Made landfall as 130 mph Cat 4. How the hell did that happen

It just so happened that the Gulf was very favorable shear-wise and humidity-wise to support a powerful cyclone. That's why in the tropics, you never write off a struggling TS until there's absolute proof and evidence that it is indeed screwed, especially starting in late August. In most cases it probably won't amount to much, but then there are those isolated times when you could get super bad luck and end up with a storm like Harvey, Andrew, or Laura.