ATL: FRED - Models

[gatorcane]

Remarkable agreement between the two big models on the day 8 forecast and both do not showing anything close to a hurricane:

[Blown Away]

Remarkable agreement between the two big models on the day 8 forecast and both do not showing anything close to a hurricane:

https://i.postimg.cc/KYrx8cbw/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-9.png
https://i.postimg.cc/ydLK0fkT/gfs-z850-vort-watl-33.png

Track yes, vorticity was much stronger on 12z EURO compared to all previous runs. No way to make conclusions at this point, especially on intensity. JMHO

[captainbarbossa19]

Sometimes organizing systems take little jumps to the north during the process,
could make a difference for this system for clearing Hispanola to the north later on.

Some models are even suggesting a track just south of Hispaniola. We definitely need to see where the center forms. Nothing may happen, but I am leaning towards at least a TD/weak TS now.

[Blown Away]

Sometimes organizing systems take little jumps to the north during the process,
could make a difference for this system for clearing Hispanola to the north later on.

Some models are even suggesting a track just south of Hispaniola. We definitely need to see where the center forms. Nothing may happen, but I am leaning towards at least a TD/weak TS now.

18z...

[SFLcane]

Sometimes organizing systems take little jumps to the north during the process,
could make a difference for this system for clearing Hispanola to the north later on.

Some models are even suggesting a track just south of Hispaniola. We definitely need to see where the center forms. Nothing may happen, but I am leaning towards at least a TD/weak TS now.

https://i.imgur.com/uCSrfiS.jpg
18z...

Hmm that misses the islands to the north.

[captainbarbossa19]

Some models are even suggesting a track just south of Hispaniola. We definitely need to see where the center forms. Nothing may happen, but I am leaning towards at least a TD/weak TS now.

https://i.imgur.com/uCSrfiS.jpg
18z...

Hmm that misses the islands to the north.

With ridging trending stronger to the north, I would not be surprised to see some south shifts. HWRF has this briefly passing south and then traveling across it. I guess I meant one model. Lol.

[xironman]

Sometimes organizing systems take little jumps to the north during the process,
could make a difference for this system for clearing Hispanola to the north later on.

Some models are even suggesting a track just south of Hispaniola. We definitely need to see where the center forms. Nothing may happen, but I am leaning towards at least a TD/weak TS now.

https://i.imgur.com/uCSrfiS.jpg
18z...

The 18z position is waaay off.

[captainbarbossa19]

Well not sure it's worth mentioning, but the NAVGEM and CMC both have a storm in the Gulf.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Certainly a little bit more exciting in the Atlantic than it was just two days ago!

I doubt the HWRF will verify; it would need to develop incredibly fast for that to happen and that simply doesn't seem very likely at present.

[Blown Away]

Some models are even suggesting a track just south of Hispaniola. We definitely need to see where the center forms. Nothing may happen, but I am leaning towards at least a TD/weak TS now.

https://i.imgur.com/uCSrfiS.jpg
18z...

The 18z position is waaay off.

The NHC is tracking a broad circulation that is very near to the starting points of the 18z models...

[AtlanticWind]

Certainly a little bit more exciting in the Atlantic than it was just two days ago!

I doubt the HWRF will verify; it would need to develop incredibly fast for that to happen and that simply doesn't seem very likely at present.

Dont think its really that fast ,Hwrf doesnt really get it going until after 24 hours.

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF... Develops 94L into sold Cat1/2 hurricane and just evaporates into the Hispaniola mountains...

[AutoPenalti]

That HWRF makes sense track wise, OP models have been readjusting to a stronger ridge out in front.

[AtlanticWind]

That HWRF makes sense track wise, OP models have been readjusting to a stronger ridge out in front.

Hwrf oftens trends to far west /south on systems. At least that what I have noticed.

[captainbarbossa19]

Sometimes organizing systems take little jumps to the north during the process,
could make a difference for this system for clearing Hispanola to the north later on.

Some models are even suggesting a track just south of Hispaniola. We definitely need to see where the center forms. Nothing may happen, but I am leaning towards at least a TD/weak TS now.

https://i.imgur.com/uCSrfiS.jpg
18z...

Look familiar anyone track-wise?

[jlauderdal]

That HWRF makes sense track wise, OP models have been readjusting to a stronger ridge out in front.

Hwrf oftens trends to far west /south on systems. At least that what I have noticed.

Here we go again with the HWRF, be careful like real careful with HWRF intensity and to a lesser degree track.

[AtlanticWind]

18z Icon headed for P.R.

[NDG]

In case anybody hasn't seen the latest 12z Euro ensembles which more jump on board for development.

[Spacecoast]

12z ECMF ensembles ... stronger than 0z

[AtlanticWind]

GFS slightly more north at 78 hours but no stronger.