ATL: FRED - Models

[SFLcane]

In case anybody hasn't seen the latest 12z Euro ensembles which more jump on board for development.

https://i.imgur.com/Zad1Oof.png

Saw that… more have jumped on onboard with a depression or low end TS.

[tolakram]

Every reliable global model is showing a persistent area of vorticity moving toward Florida. I'll be shocked if we don't get at least a TS out of this.

[NDG]

18z HWRF so far is not so aggressive with 94L as previous run, takes a while for it to become stacked with the mid level circulation, a little further north with its track.

[SFLcane]

18z HWRF so far is not so aggressive with 94L as previous run, takes a while for it to become stacked with the mid level circulation, a little further north with its track.

https://i.imgur.com/wY7M6EJ.gif

Yep, probably seeing the hostile environment ahead.

[aspen]

Right over The Shredder this run.

[ronjon]

Every reliable global model is showing a persistent area of vorticity moving toward Florida. I'll be shocked if we don't get at least a TS out of this.

Agree. Big wild card here will be its land interaction with greater antilles islands. Probably will prevent it from getting too strong. Globals in good agreement next 5-7 days with big 594 dm ridge parked over the SW Atlantic steering it W-NW until it reaches S FL. Then some up the east coast, some through the spine, and others into the eastern GOM.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Barring an unexpected LLC relocation, 94L's demise appears a certainty with this path.



However, history has shown storms like this can have a mind of their own when interacting with Hispaniola, especially if they're weak.

[AtlanticWind]

Barring an unexpected LLC relocation, 94L's demise appears a certainty with this path.

https://i.imgur.com/kIdRCdP.png

However, history has shown storms like this can have a mind of their own when interacting with Hispaniola, especially if they're weak.

I think we could see a relocation north or a short term movement north like Dorian did if the storm strengthens.
If it stays weak I think it gets shredded by the islands.

[sma10]

Barring an unexpected LLC relocation, 94L's demise appears a certainty with this path.

https://i.imgur.com/kIdRCdP.png

However, history has shown storms like this can have a mind of their own when interacting with Hispaniola, especially if they're weak.

We also know that the probability of the models nailing a perfect 72-96 hour bullseye is ... not particularly likely. This system could just as easily slide a bit north or south of this forecast.

[Hurricaneman]

Don’t even be surprised if Jamaica has to watch this, seems to be south of the model tracks

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS has this moving wnw of the bat, this is clearly not moving that direction based on what I’m seeing and may need to correct more south

[crownweather]

Saw this a little while ago in my Twitter timeline. TBH, I have no clue of the verification scores on the IBM model....so, use with caution.

 https://twitter.com/Weatheric/status/1424585662544687109

[chaser1]

Don’t even be surprised if Jamaica has to watch this, seems to be south of the model tracks

I'm thinking the same thing. Sure, as of the 0Z runs tonight very single global model and 18Z HMON & HWRP all dart this system smack over Hispaniola. In fact, I believe that GFS, ICON, HMON & HWRP all have 94L at about 15N between 18Z-23Z tomorrow. Perhaps so, but all i'm seeing thus far is west, west, west. We'll see if this begins to gain latitude tomorrow as models suggest. If I remember correctly though, most or all models pretty much forecast Elsa to plow right over S. Puerto Rico.... then Hispaniola, yet the storm remained south of both points.

[chaser1]

Saw this a little while ago in my Twitter timeline. TBH, I have no clue of the verification scores on the IBM model....so, use with caution.

https://twitter.com/Weatheric/status/1424585662544687109

Interesting nonetheless! Seems like a bit of a reach if taking a path north of the Islands given present UL forecast conditions, of course this too can change. Big potential difference in outcome if a southward track were maintained (in spite of nearly all models insisting otherwise). Will be interesting to see if there's any increase in Euro ensemble members beginning to hedge a bit more south and west

[ElectricStorm]

HMON kills this over Hispanola. Peaks at 1001mb right as it reaches the Caribbean. HWRF has it coming in to PR at 1006mb at hour 51.

[crownweather]

00Z GFS shows little, if any development. 00Z Canadian model does show development into a moderate tropical storm in the eastern Gulf of Mexico next weekend.

[AtlanticWind]

Euro stronger off s.e. florida coast at 120 hours

[Shell Mound]

Euro stronger off s.e. florida coast at 120 hours

Interestingly, it continues to show 94L turning WNW and tracking just north of the Greater Antilles, rather than striking Hispaniola or passing to its south.

[Dean4Storms]

06Z Guidance shifted south with just about every track over the Greater Antilles islands of Hispaniola and Cuba, any shift further south missing those islands and likely less hostile upper level winds this could be trouble. Even the 00z GEFS shifted a bit south with hardly any members headed toward the northern Bahamas.

[SFLcane]

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06Z Guidance shifted south with just about every track over the Greater Antilles islands of Hispaniola and Cuba, any shift further south missing those islands and likely less hostile upper level winds this could be trouble. Even the 00z GEFS shifted a bit south with hardly any members headed toward the northern Bahamas.

Could be a problem for the GOM if it even forms and survives the hostile environment and island tour. Some scattered showers here across SFL