Another Guillermo.
Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021
300 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021
Kevin is a sheared tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery indicates the
low-level center lies near the edge of the dense overcast, which has
a sharp border in the northeastern quadrant of the cyclone. The
associated deep convection is displaced well to the southwest of
Kevin's partially exposed center. Recent scatterometer data only
show 25 to 30-kt winds near the center, but the full southwestern
quadrant where the most intense convection is occurring was not
sampled. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this
advisory, in best agreement with the subjective final Dvorak
T-numbers from TAFB and SAB. This estimate could still be generous,
however.
The cyclone has turned west-northwestward during the past 12 h, and
its estimated motion is now 290/6 kt. The track forecast reasoning
is unchanged, as Kevin is expected to move west-northwestward for
most of the forecast period along the southwestern periphery of a
mid-level ridge. The official NHC track forecast has been adjusted a
bit northward again this cycle, following the trend of the latest
multi-model consensus aids.
Although Kevin has been embedded within a favorable thermodynamic
environment, 15 to 20 kt of northeasterly shear has thus far limited
its rate of strengthening. This shear is expected to persist for the
next couple of days, so it seems likely that Kevin will continue to
struggle intensifying, despite warm SSTs and a moist, unstable
environment. By the time the vertical wind shear diminishes, Kevin
will have gained enough latitude that the underlying SSTs will be
unfavorable for further strengthening. The new intensity guidance is
much lower than previous cycles, and so the latest NHC intensity
forecast has been reduced by 5 to 10 kt at all forecast hours. Thus,
Kevin is no longer forecast to become a hurricane. By day 5, the
system is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low over sub-22
deg C waters.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 16.3N 110.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 16.8N 111.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 17.6N 113.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 18.4N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 19.2N 116.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 20.1N 118.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 21.0N 120.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 22.5N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 24.0N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members
Click Here