ATL: FRED - Models

[Shell Mound]

The 06Z GFS is much stronger through 24h. For the first time the GFS is showing a depression or stronger impacting the Lesser Antilles.

It remains insistent on a track toward St. Croix and Puerto Rico through 48h. Afterward strong VWS still looks to be an issue for 94L.

On another note, most of the 00Z EPS members that do develop 94L now show the system tracking just east of FL and toward GA/SC.

[Blown Away]

The 06Z GFS is much stronger through 24h. For the first time the GFS is showing a depression or stronger impacting the Lesser Antilles.

It remains insistent on a track toward St. Croix and Puerto Rico through 48h. Afterward strong VWS still looks to be an issue for 94L.

On another note, most of the 00Z EPS members that do develop 94L now show the system tracking just east of FL and toward GA/SC.

00z Euro ensembles... The stronger system seems to gain latitude and move over NE Caribbean/PR and miss Hispaniola... The ones going W in the Caribbean are from 93L...

[jlauderdal]

The 06Z GFS is much stronger through 24h. For the first time the GFS is showing a depression or stronger impacting the Lesser Antilles.

It remains insistent on a track toward St. Croix and Puerto Rico through 48h. Afterward strong VWS still looks to be an issue for 94L.

On another note, most of the 00Z EPS members that do develop 94L now show the system tracking just east of FL and toward GA/SC.

https://i.imgur.com/HwQ6lk6.jpg

00z Euro ensembles... The stronger system seems to gain latitude and move over NE Caribbean/PR and miss Hispaniola... The ones going W in the Caribbean are from 93L...

good test for the euro after last months major fail with bringing the energy to the east of florida..as always goes with nhc for track guidance and trends, they don't miss by much out to 5 days

[NDG]

The 06Z GFS is much stronger through 24h. For the first time the GFS is showing a depression or stronger impacting the Lesser Antilles.

It remains insistent on a track toward St. Croix and Puerto Rico through 48h. Afterward strong VWS still looks to be an issue for 94L.

On another note, most of the 00Z EPS members that do develop 94L now show the system tracking just east of FL and toward GA/SC.

Don't forget how far to the right biased the Euro was with Elsa near FL.

[NDG]

So far the Consensus has been right biased, yet another Elsa scenario might be playing out. Don't bet yet on a track directly over the Shredder.

[ronjon]

Yeah same thoughts NDG. Could be Elsa part 2 on track. Fortunately looks at best now to stay a weak tropical storm based on current model trends.

[Shell Mound]

The 06Z GFS is much stronger through 24h. For the first time the GFS is showing a depression or stronger impacting the Lesser Antilles.

It remains insistent on a track toward St. Croix and Puerto Rico through 48h. Afterward strong VWS still looks to be an issue for 94L.

On another note, most of the 00Z EPS members that do develop 94L now show the system tracking just east of FL and toward GA/SC.

Don't forget how far to the right biased the Euro was with Elsa near FL.

Doesn’t the ECMWF still show considerable VWS due to the ULL near or over Florida?

[tolakram]

Southeast Florida is very difficult to hit (I know people think otherwise, but it's protected by the Islands). A track just north of the Hispaniola and a ridge in just the right place to stop a recurve, but weak enough to still send it NE is the equation needed. I don't think we'll know for sure until just a few days out. This is why everyone should already be prepared prior to the start of the season.

[SoupBone]

So far the Consensus has been right biased, yet another Elsa scenario might be playing out. Don't bet yet on a track directly over the Shredder.

https://i.imgur.com/vp12bxb.png

I don't get that abrupt NE turn. Seems to pop up out of nowhere.

[Blown Away]

12z shifted back NE slightly through 72 hours and big jump afterwards...

[tolakram]

Current shear map

[tolakram]

This page appears to have replaced TCGEN for those looking for model track comparisons.

https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/w5ykJaO.jpg

12z shifted back NE slightly through 72 hours and big jump afterwards...

Yea, but if it were to take that exact track there will be nothing left. From what it looks like mow even if it misses the islands the ULL will prevent significant deepening.

[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/w5ykJaO.jpg

12z shifted back NE slightly through 72 hours and big jump afterwards...

Yea, but if it were to take that exact track there will be nothing left. From what it looks like mow even if it misses the islands the ULL will prevent significant deepening.

Agree, but into Hispaniola not set in stone.

[SFLcane]

Extremely delicate forecast here but models came back north again.

[AlphaToOmega]

[NDG]

One thing that the SHIPS model has been trending down is on shear down the road. Yesterday it was showing shear in the mid to upper 20 knots, now is down to upper teens to near 20 at the most.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

IMHO, I think the models are overdoing it as far as hostile conditions out in the Bahamas. I do expect some sort of weak TS to survive should it manage to avoid Hispaniola.

[SFLcane]

One thing that the SHIPS model has been trending down is on shear down the road. Yesterday it was showing shear in the mid to upper 20 knots, now is down to upper teens to near 20 at the most.

https://i.imgur.com/5sqpPi1.gif

Now this is interesting.

[SFLcane]

NDG shear still looks bad though in the Bahamas.