ATL: FRED - Models

[Blown Away]

12z EURO 120 Hours... Vorticity much better (Still TD/TS at best) than previous runs as it skims N of Hispaniola...

[BobHarlem]

12z HWRF keeps the system a tropical cyclone, but very weak. Getting absolutely slammed with shear in the Bahamas.

End of the run it seems to make a fairly quick ramp up as the shear abates just on the western side of the Bahamas approaching S. Fl. This one is going to drive people crazy if it does that.

[Blown Away]

12z EURO 72-144 Hours... Conditions seem to improve as 94L approaches SFL and begins to turn NW...

[SFLcane]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z HWRF keeps the system a tropical cyclone, but very weak. Getting absolutely slammed with shear in the Bahamas.

End of the run it seems to make a fairly quick ramp up as the shear abates just on the western side of the Bahamas approaching S. Fl. This one is going to drive people crazy if it does that.

Yeah, hits SFL as a 60 knot TS.

[AutoPenalti]

Another game of inches here.

[Blown Away]

https://i.postimg.cc/sfGXd7JH/B72-AEC9-D-98-F0-42-D5-8-BAF-6-A36202-A1052.jpg

Models sniffing better conditions near SFL...

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.postimg.cc/sfGXd7JH/B72-AEC9-D-98-F0-42-D5-8-BAF-6-A36202-A1052.jpg

Models sniffing better conditions near SFL...

MJO is crossing right now so models will likely start responding to that.

[Blown Away]

12z EURO... Misses Hispaniola and vorticity gets better as 94L approaches and passes through SFL...

[Ubuntwo]

euro bottoms out at 1002 mb before landfall on the Big Bend. lots of flip flopping yet to come...

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF

[AtlanticWind]

Just dont completely trust the models on intensity 5 days out.
Hwrf shows this starting to intensify right before coming ashore in S Fla
Euro shows the same thing.
If the shear forecasts are a little off , Future (possible) Fred will have very warm waters
to fuel it.
Still somewhat concerned if this avoids much land interaction and stays over water North
of the Greater Antilles.

[BobHarlem]

Just dont completely trust the models on intensity 5 days out.
Hwrf shows this starting to intensify right before coming ashore in S Fla
Euro shows the same thing.
If the shear forecasts are a little off , Future (possible) Fred will have very warm waters
to fuel it.
Still somewhat concerned if this avoids much land interaction and stays over water North
of the Greater Antilles.

CMC, Euro and HRWF all show the last minute ramp up and S. Fl landfall. The GFS does not, but all agree it'll be fairly weak through most of the Bahamas except toward the end. It's going to be a close call if land interaction with the islands is minimal.

[AtlanticWind]

https://i.imgur.com/tgacvFy.gif

12z HWRF

Drops 13 MB in a very short time .That must mean much better conditions right before landfall in S Fla.

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/tgacvFy.gif

12z HWRF

Drops 13 MB in a very short time .That must mean much better conditions right before landfall in S Fla.

It will be interesting to see the hwrf tonight to see if that trend continues. Tomorrow is key with aircraft data.

[Blown Away]

18z Guidance... N shift with models moving towards N Coast of Hispaniola... Modest strengthening possible after @75W...

[Category5Kaiju]

Imho, with 94L, the worst case scenario would be a robust tropical storm striking South Florida. Not sure about the other extremes, nothing or a minimal hurricane, but we’ll have to see how the dry air and shear behave.

[ColdMiser123]

There is a lot of spread with the EPS in intensity, the additional uncertainty includes any kind of potential island land interaction going forward, as well as what side of Florida 94L could end up on down the road.

[AutoPenalti]

The intensity jump seems just a tad bit unrealistic only because it requires it to be vertically stacked before approaching the Gulf stream.

[NDG]

Just a reminder that systems that have a rubust MLC tend to fare better when tracking over Hispaniola, they redevelop a LLC quicker than systems that don't.