ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ouragans]

Invest 94L
As of 18:00 UTC Aug 09, 2021:

Location: 13.8°N 58.6°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 60 nm

[sma10]

In regards to future-Fred, perhaps the most ominous sign for S FL is its historical connection to Wilma.

[Category5Kaiju]

Correct me if I am wrong, but if future Fred goes on its projected path, wouldn’t it pass through a Hebert Box, which is considered to be a region where storms that pass through if robust enough could have an increased risk of hitting South Florida?

[GeneratorPower]

In regards to future-Fred, perhaps the most ominous sign for S FL is its historical connection to Wilma.

I don't know what this means.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Correct me if I am wrong, but if future Fred goes on its projected path, wouldn’t it pass through a Hebert Box, which is considered to be a region where storms that pass through if robust enough could have an increased risk of hitting South Florida?

correct

[GCANE]

Seeing a much faster inflow and spin on Floater / Fast Scan

[captainbarbossa19]

I spy an overshooting cloud top.

[NDG]

It may not have a defined closed surface circulation but its MLC is very well defined, I am thinking tonight it will closed off at the surface as land interaction will help it do so.

[SFLcane]

It may not have a defined closed surface circulation but its MLC is very well defined, I am thinking tonight it will closed off at the surface as land interaction will help it do so.

https://i.imgur.com/xiiPP1V.gif

Heck of a spin for sure

[tolakram]

I see some NE winds showing up from various (unknown quality) stations.

[GCANE]

Good clear 355K PV area ahead.
This should support a fast spin up.

[lafaa]

Correct me if I am wrong, but if future Fred goes on its projected path, wouldn’t it pass through a Hebert Box, which is considered to be a region where storms that pass through if robust enough could have an increased risk of hitting South Florida?

correct

This is actually incorrect. The Herbert boxes are predictors for major hurricane strikes, and for the storm to qualify it must pass through the box as a hurricane with >110mph winds.

[GCANE]

Maybe seeing some west movement on radar just east of the island.

[ElectricStorm]

I'm a little surprised they haven't gone with PTC advisories yet since it's approaching the islands. Maybe they will at the 4pm advisory.

[tolakram]

Correct me if I am wrong, but if future Fred goes on its projected path, wouldn’t it pass through a Hebert Box, which is considered to be a region where storms that pass through if robust enough could have an increased risk of hitting South Florida?

correct

This is actually incorrect. The Herbert boxes are predictors for major hurricane strikes, and for the storm to qualify it must pass through the box as a hurricane with >110mph winds.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box

[Nimbus]

It may not have a defined closed surface circulation but its MLC is very well defined, I am thinking tonight it will closed off at the surface as land interaction will help it do so.

https://i.imgur.com/xiiPP1V.gif

Heck of a spin for sure

Had a symmetrical mid level spin yesterday at 10,000 ft so it didn't have too far to go to reach the surface. Once the convection bombs over the center that will be the signal.

[tolakram]

Saved loop

[lafaa]

correct

This is actually incorrect. The Herbert boxes are predictors for major hurricane strikes, and for the storm to qualify it must pass through the box as a hurricane with >110mph winds.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box

Thanks for the link. As stated in the article:

“ To qualify as a possible threat to Florida they must have 110 mph winds and track through the box rather than forming outside the box like Katrina in 2005 or crossing the box as a weak hurricane or tropical storm.”

[Stormybajan]

It may not have a defined closed surface circulation but its MLC is very well defined, I am thinking tonight it will closed off at the surface as land interaction will help it do so.

https://i.imgur.com/xiiPP1V.gif

Surely PTC at 5?

[psyclone]

Looks PTC worthy at 5 based on organizational trends and proximity.