ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[weeniepatrol]

Morales throws big shade

http://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/1424883735196049409?s=20

Morales always have problems with NHC, always!

There's no westerly wind yet, probably because the system has not yet developed. I'm not sure why any pro met would ever feel the need to type this out and then tweet it.

[ElectricStorm]

Morales throws big shade

http://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/1424883735196049409?s=20

Morales always have problems with NHC, always!

There's no westerly wind yet, probably because the system has not yet developed. I'm not sure why any pro met would ever feel the need to type this out and then tweet it.

For real! I mean... It's a potential TC for a reason lol

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Morales throws big shade

http://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/1424883735196049409?s=20

Bad take. Weak tropical cyclones can have an incredibly small LLC that sneaks right through the islands undetected. Need a recon for the full picture.

[alienstorm]

Morales is always going against the grain. He believes he knows everything.

[alienstorm]

Mid-level dry air is hampering the system, note that it is north weighted and I don't think it will do much until it gets into the Caribbean.

[tolakram]

COD - NT MicroP
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-ntmicro-200-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[TallyTracker]

It doesn’t quite look closed yet based on the Barbados wind direction. The circulation may still be a trough at the surface. The circulation on satellite looks to still be above the surface.

[Stormybajan]

I think whats happening here is a double edged sword kind of situation...the circulation might be becoming a bit tighter/stronger but because of that its sucking in all that dry air from the SW so its basically a half-storm right now with all the organized convection in the top half of the system. He is right though, the islands are calm

[wxman57]

Morales always have problems with NHC, always!

There's no westerly wind yet, probably because the system has not yet developed. I'm not sure why any pro met would ever feel the need to type this out and then tweet it.

For real! I mean... It's a potential TC for a reason lol

I tend to agree with him. Not much at the surface now. No LLC and winds are fairly light in the region. That doesn't mean it can't become a TD/TS, but it's definitely not one now, which is why the NHC is issuing PTC advisories (P = potential, but not currently).

[ElectricStorm]

There's no westerly wind yet, probably because the system has not yet developed. I'm not sure why any pro met would ever feel the need to type this out and then tweet it.

For real! I mean... It's a potential TC for a reason lol

I tend to agree with him. Not much at the surface now. No LLC and winds are fairly light in the region. That doesn't mean it can't become a TD/TS, but it's definitely not one now, which is why the NHC is issuing PTC advisories (P = potential, but not currently).

Yeah I agree with that, I don't think it's quite there yet but the way he worded it he made it seems like there's no chance of it doing anything and that the NHC shouldn't have pulled the trigger on PTC.

[GCANE]

TPW continues to amplify, on course with GFS a couple days ago.
If it maintains, it will very likely go north of the Antilles into the Bahamas.

[Category5Kaiju]

I think the PTC call was a good decision, yes it is not quite a TC yet and does not have a well-defined center yet, but it is still very close enough to being one and close enough to the islands to warrant heightened attention. I would be very surprised to see this not become a TD or TS and I still think we are likely going to see our sixth named storm form soon; it just needs to fend off the surrounding dry air, and we have seen systems in the recent past do such task successfully.

[GCANE]

Forecast still showing this under a weak UL High in the Bahamas going into the Straits.

[GCANE]

Biggest obstacle in the Bahamas would be a possible cutoff of high TPW air due to the mountains of Cuba.
Forecast is showing a relatively dry mid layer then.

[Sciencerocks]

[GCANE]

Biggest obstacle in the Bahamas would be a possible cutoff of high TPW air due to the mountains of Cuba.
Forecast is showing a relatively dry mid layer then.

I have to retract the comment on the dry mid-layer.
I read the graph wrong.
In fact, the forecasted skew-t is showing a saturated troposphere in the Bahamas then.

[SFLcane]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1424915910125658118

[chaser1]

Despite much of the convection shunted a bit north and east, it appears to me that the LLC continues to become better defined. Another observation is that the present term motion of the COC appears practically due west. Finally, banding features are far more impressive then 24 hr's ago.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1424918496199290907