ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1424949651527061504




Gulf coast better hope it recurves into Florida/gets shredded or else its going to have that Loop current I mentioned earlier to play with

[Chemmers]

A few over shooting cloud top, maybe near or right on top off the centre now

[StPeteMike]

Although starting off in a location further south and from a different angle, not to mention a month earlier, getting Irma vibes…

[skyline385]

Although starting off in a location further south and from a different angle, not to mention a month earlier, getting Irma vibes…

Irma was RI'ing as soon as it crossed Verde islands, this is not even close to it....

[ElectricStorm]

Although starting off in a location further south and from a different angle, not to mention a month earlier, getting Irma vibes…

Irma was RI'ing as soon as it crossed Verde islands, this is not even close to it....

Pretty sure he means track-wise into FL, not intensity.

[skyline385]

Although starting off in a location further south and from a different angle, not to mention a month earlier, getting Irma vibes…

Irma was RI'ing as soon as it crossed Verde islands, this is not even close to it....

Pretty sure he means track-wise into FL, not intensity.

Well this isnt a very uncommon path tho lol

[psyclone]

Track and intensity around FL may be more Elsa like than Irma. We tend to reach for memorable storms and forget the snoozers even when they're more recent.

[StPeteMike]

Irma was RI'ing as soon as it crossed Verde islands, this is not even close to it....

Pretty sure he means track-wise into FL, not intensity.

Well this isnt a very uncommon path tho lol

Thanks Weather Dude haha just comparing by track. Actually been going through the model thread for Irma and look at the progression of the models. August 31, Irma was anywhere between SFL to Maine… so we still have time. Though I believe once I get to the Sept 5 models, right when Irma was closer to the LA, models were more committed to a SFL landfall.

[skyline385]

Every run moves it further west.
First, it was forecast to move to sea and maybe graze the Carolinas.
Then, it was an east coast landfall.
Then, a West Coast landfall.
Now 0Z GFS shows a Panhandle landfall as a Cat 2.

If it moves anymore West, then its gonna have even more time in the Gulf waters which are extremely hot right now.

[ElectricStorm]

Nice little anticyclone sitting right over it. So shear shouldn't be an issue as long as it stays that way.

[storminabox]

PTC 6 is so weak that the islands may not have as much of an impact as they would on a well developed tropical cyclone.

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
200 AM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

...DISTURBANCE PASSING NEAR DOMINICA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...



SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 61.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES

[LemieT]

Looking at current radar, seems a center is trying to form just off the NW corner of Martinique.

https://www.barbadosweather.org/Composite/kidbuuComposite_Lionel_displayer2.php?Product=Reflectivity&Sector=EC_Bar&Composite=Sabre&ANISP=700&MAPP=1&PlanetOfTheApes=1628574352

[LemieT]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
200 AM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

...DISTURBANCE PASSING NEAR DOMINICA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...



SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 61.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES

Based on this my "centre-fix" is .7 deg too far south. I have mine 14.8/61.5. Hmmm...

[StPeteMike]

Looking at current radar, seems a center is trying to form just off the NW corner of Martinique.

https://www.barbadosweather.org/Composite/kidbuuComposite_Lionel_displayer2.php?Product=Reflectivity&Sector=EC_Bar&Composite=Sabre&ANISP=700&MAPP=1&PlanetOfTheApes=1628574352

Correct, may be tightening up a little there as well.

[Jr0d]

Looking much better early this morning, it might already be a storm..dmax now, we will see if this convection will sustain itself throughout the day.

Unless it goes poof, I expect recon to find a storm.

[Kingarabian]

Yeah should be a TS when recon gets in:

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1424895505084076034

[Shell Mound]

Personally, I think the faster-than-expected forward speed in the short term will likely cap any further organisation until PTC Six nears the eastern Gulf.

[AtlanticWind]

Personally, I think the faster-than-expected forward speed in the short term will likely cap any further organisation until PTC Six nears the eastern Gulf.

Its speed of about 16mph should be no hindrance