ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

If you look at OHC there is a big increase near 65W along with an increase in SST's all south of PR. Should help instability increase and overcome the dry air IMO.

[Nimbus]

Radar showed a fairly tight low level circulation as Six passed over. The dry air and fast forward speed prevented rapid intensification and most of the squall activity is in the northern semicircle. Looks healthier this morning and it is large enough that regardless of track Puerto Rico will be getting some rough weather. 18Z HWRF looks like it might have a more northwesterly track early in the forecast that crosses Puerto Rico and might miss the shredder staying over water through the Mona Passage.

[NDG]

Anticyclone parked right over PTC6 for now

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/temp/tcmovieFinal.gif

Not surprising, the GFS for days was forecasting a nice anticyclone on top of it, the reason why I had my eye on this disturbance way before it was declared an Invest and models were falsely developing the other invests vs this one.

[NDG]

This is the reason it has gained some latitude during the past 24 hrs just like global models were persistent on instead of crusing straight westward. There's a weakness in the ridging to its north, between the ridge over the central Atlantic and a strong building 594+dm ridge off of NC which will block future Fred from going up east of FL like initially models had it going, a most likely track is just west of FL towards the eastern GOM.

[Chemmers]

Looking good on first visible satellite this morning, think will have Fred in a matter of hours, just waiting on recon to confirm

[eastcoastFL]

Looking good on first visible satellite this morning, think will have Fred in a matter of hours, just waiting on recon to confirm

What time is recon headed out?

[GCANE]

A couple 35-knt barbs on IR Sat Analysis

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[aspen]

Looking good on first visible satellite this morning, think will have Fred in a matter of hours, just waiting on recon to confirm

What time is recon headed out?

It’s already on its way and should perform its first center fix before 9am EST.

[Blown Away]

Not to bad when you zoom out...

[InfernoFlameCat]

Looks like a TC just still not quite defined enough. However I assume it will be very very soon.

[NDG]

Not a bad looking system this morning.

[Dean4Storms]

They should go ahead and classify this a TD at the 8am update. West winds and better defined this morning.

[BobHarlem]

The setup for PTC is probably ripe for a relatively "weak" system that ramps up quickly--how much is up in the air--toward the end (Ala Western Bahamas into the Keys/Gulf), it'll make for an interesting week here that's for sure.

[GCANE]

GOM looks quite the powder keg with 4500 CAPE this morning.
This is where TD6 will have the best development

[Dean4Storms]

No upgrade at 8am, guess we wait for Recon.

[tolakram]

Floater just moved. Here's the COD version

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Stormybajan]

No upgrade at 8am, guess we wait for Recon.

I would be immensely shocked if this isnt atleast a TD when recon gets there

[tolakram]

This is the reason it has gained some latitude during the past 24 hrs just like global models were persistent on instead of crusing straight westward. There's a weakness in the ridging to its north, between the ridge over the central Atlantic and a strong building 594+dm ridge off of NC which will block future Fred from going up east of FL like initially models had it going, a most likely track is just west of FL towards the eastern GOM.

https://i.imgur.com/qhBVlm8.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/sLCEkLR.jpg

We'll know fairly quickly because for that HWRF run to verify the center crosses over SW Puerto Rico in 20 hours.

[TallyTracker]

No upgrade at 8am, guess we wait for Recon.

I would be immensely shocked if this isnt atleast a TD when recon gets there

I agree. With the persistent convection and low forward speed, I imagine the circulation has closed off overnight.

[NDG]

No upgrade at 8am, guess we wait for Recon.

I would be immensely shocked if this isnt atleast a TD when recon gets there

As long as it finds a well defined closed circulation which is what it lacked yesterday.