ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
39 knt SFMR reported in a 37mm/hr rain-rate cell
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
Shell Mound wrote:NDG wrote:They found a wind shift but pressures are much higher than I would had thought.
I still think it is moving too quickly for the circulation to become vertically stacked. In other words, this system is Elsa 2.0 and hints at unfavourable background.
Elsa was going at 30 mph. This is currently going at 17 mph. Elsa was going at double the rate, I don’t really think that’s a fair comparison to make honestly
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
I think South Florida will get a lot of rain out of this even if the track goes even a little south of the keys putting Miami to West Palm on the dirty side.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
Category5Kaiju wrote:Shell Mound wrote:NDG wrote:They found a wind shift but pressures are much higher than I would had thought.
I still think it is moving too quickly for the circulation to become vertically stacked. In other words, this system is Elsa 2.0 and hints at unfavourable background.
Elsa was going at 30 mph. This is currently going at 17 mph. Elsa was going at double the rate, I don’t really think that’s a fair comparison to make honestly
17 isn't ideal but getting a circulation to get vertically aligned isnt just about forward speed
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
I actually want this system to form up sooner than later. My fear is the longer it takes to form the further West it will go.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
RGB floater loop
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-natcolor-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-natcolor-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
Getting ready for 3 pages of down casting. Let the recon mission finish. Long way to go here
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
Given the recon wind shift noted earlier, the satellite presentation, etc., don’t see how this won’t get upgraded to an actual system (vs. potential) at 11 am. Only question to me is whether it’s a TD or TS. Plane headed to NE quadrant to sample what is typically strongest one next I believe
Last edited by Weatherboy1 on Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
jlauderdal wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:Shell Mound wrote:I still think it is moving too quickly for the circulation to become vertically stacked. In other words, this system is Elsa 2.0 and hints at unfavourable background.
Elsa was going at 30 mph. This is currently going at 17 mph. Elsa was going at double the rate, I don’t really think that’s a fair comparison to make honestly
17 isn't ideal but getting a circulation to get vertically aligned isnt just about forward speed
Like Elsa, this system looks better on satellite than it does at or near the surface. The UL anticyclonic flow only tells part of the proverbial story. Recon found a swirl.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:I have it moving inland near Apalachicola, FL late Sunday evening at 50 kts. Probably a better chance of moving inland farther west than farther east. Not too much farther west, though.
Will it go south of the Keys? Through SFL? What are your thoughts for FL?
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
Looks like recon found winds in all the directions, that plus the SMRF reading should probably be enough to upgrade it at 11AM.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
Seems like it’s closed; it just needs some consistent hot towers over the LLC to bring down the pressure. We should have Fred by the 5pm advisory.
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
High pressures are not unusual. There was definitely some westerlies there. I'd go with a 30 knot tropical depression with a MSLP ~1012mb at 11 AM.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
I mean Danny in late June had an initial pressure in the low 1010s
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
aspen wrote:Seems like it’s closed; it just needs some consistent hot towers over the LLC to bring down the pressure. We should have Fred by the 5pm advisory.
Yes this is really the only missing component yet. If we get that firing off in the next few hours, no reason this can’t strengthen 15/20 mph today IMO. Then question is land interaction/path
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
I rarely post model runs here, but a few frames of the latest HWRF seem appropriate. The latest run seems a little low but not unrealistic. Let's see if the center jumps north today.


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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
Getting some 40 kt flight level in the NE side
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
Large number of 35+ knot surface winds being measured
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