ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#461 Postby GCANE » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:22 am

39 knt SFMR reported in a 37mm/hr rain-rate cell
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#462 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:22 am

Shell Mound wrote:
NDG wrote:They found a wind shift but pressures are much higher than I would had thought.

I still think it is moving too quickly for the circulation to become vertically stacked. In other words, this system is Elsa 2.0 and hints at unfavourable background.


Elsa was going at 30 mph. This is currently going at 17 mph. Elsa was going at double the rate, I don’t really think that’s a fair comparison to make honestly
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#463 Postby boca » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:23 am

I think South Florida will get a lot of rain out of this even if the track goes even a little south of the keys putting Miami to West Palm on the dirty side.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#464 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:24 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
NDG wrote:They found a wind shift but pressures are much higher than I would had thought.

I still think it is moving too quickly for the circulation to become vertically stacked. In other words, this system is Elsa 2.0 and hints at unfavourable background.


Elsa was going at 30 mph. This is currently going at 17 mph. Elsa was going at double the rate, I don’t really think that’s a fair comparison to make honestly

17 isn't ideal but getting a circulation to get vertically aligned isnt just about forward speed
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#465 Postby Blinhart » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:24 am

I actually want this system to form up sooner than later. My fear is the longer it takes to form the further West it will go.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#466 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:24 am

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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#467 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:25 am

Getting ready for 3 pages of down casting. Let the recon mission finish. Long way to go here
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#468 Postby Weatherboy1 » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:26 am

Given the recon wind shift noted earlier, the satellite presentation, etc., don’t see how this won’t get upgraded to an actual system (vs. potential) at 11 am. Only question to me is whether it’s a TD or TS. Plane headed to NE quadrant to sample what is typically strongest one next I believe
Last edited by Weatherboy1 on Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#469 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:26 am

jlauderdal wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:I still think it is moving too quickly for the circulation to become vertically stacked. In other words, this system is Elsa 2.0 and hints at unfavourable background.


Elsa was going at 30 mph. This is currently going at 17 mph. Elsa was going at double the rate, I don’t really think that’s a fair comparison to make honestly

17 isn't ideal but getting a circulation to get vertically aligned isnt just about forward speed

Like Elsa, this system looks better on satellite than it does at or near the surface. The UL anticyclonic flow only tells part of the proverbial story. Recon found a swirl.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#470 Postby JPmia » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:27 am

wxman57 wrote:I have it moving inland near Apalachicola, FL late Sunday evening at 50 kts. Probably a better chance of moving inland farther west than farther east. Not too much farther west, though.


Will it go south of the Keys? Through SFL? What are your thoughts for FL?
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#471 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:29 am

Looks like recon found winds in all the directions, that plus the SMRF reading should probably be enough to upgrade it at 11AM.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#472 Postby aspen » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:31 am

Seems like it’s closed; it just needs some consistent hot towers over the LLC to bring down the pressure. We should have Fred by the 5pm advisory.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#473 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:33 am

High pressures are not unusual. There was definitely some westerlies there. I'd go with a 30 knot tropical depression with a MSLP ~1012mb at 11 AM.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#474 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:37 am

I mean Danny in late June had an initial pressure in the low 1010s
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#475 Postby Weatherboy1 » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:39 am

aspen wrote:Seems like it’s closed; it just needs some consistent hot towers over the LLC to bring down the pressure. We should have Fred by the 5pm advisory.


Yes this is really the only missing component yet. If we get that firing off in the next few hours, no reason this can’t strengthen 15/20 mph today IMO. Then question is land interaction/path
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#476 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:39 am

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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#477 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:43 am

I rarely post model runs here, but a few frames of the latest HWRF seem appropriate. The latest run seems a little low but not unrealistic. Let's see if the center jumps north today.

Image
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#478 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:44 am

Getting some 40 kt flight level in the NE side
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#479 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:44 am

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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#480 Postby GCANE » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:47 am

Large number of 35+ knot surface winds being measured
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